Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[BuffaloWeather]

OP GFS gets warmer and warmer each run.  Hopefully Ensembles don't start showing the same.

Merry Christmas.

[BuffaloWeather]

GFS says no snow until at least new year with some crazy warmth.

[BuffaloWeather]

the met at GRR actually had a great write up on this

Impact of Tropical Storm Rai (west Pacific) on our weather for next week As it turns out, Tropical Storm Rai, in the western Pacific is heading due west toward the Philippine Islands. It should become a typhoon by this evening. Why to we care about this in Michigan? As it turns out, it will have a major impact our weather for the next week. What this does is it stalls the MJO on the edge of phase 6 to phase 7 since in phase 7. In phase 7 the area near the Philippines should be dry. That changes the entire northern hemispheric wave train. It will delay the arrives of the really cold air till after Christmas (we need a solid phase 7 for that cold air to get here). This means largely zonal flow for our area for the next week. That will prevent any strong pushes of cold air and also not allow the much phasing with the next two storm systems that follow the Thursday event. The result will be the system on Saturday will have a northern and southern branch component to it. The northern branch part stays north and the southern branch part stays south. Still we are close enough the jet entrance region driving the system that some light rain/snow is possible. Northern area will see mostly snow, central sections a mix of rain and snow and mostly rain south of I-94 (not enough push of the cold air for snow there). Any precipitation with this will be meager at best. There is another system early next week, that too lacks any real cold air. Expect some light snow north and a mix south. Finally a better system is possible near Christmas. This is about the time that the tropical cyclone in the west Pacific influence should be fading. Maybe snow by Christmas?

Bill Marino, great forecaster, been there forever

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, TheClimateChanger said:

Some locations are near record high annual mean temperatures through yesterday. Will be interesting to see whether the upcoming warmth will be enough for first place on these lists.

Buffalo

Erie

Syracuse

Oddly enough, Rochester quite a bit lower than the other closest regional airport sites for both this year and last. Still quite warm, but not close to the top (2020 is 12th). It appears to be a new disconnect as several recent years show up warmer (2006, 2016, 2017, and 2012 at #1).

Rochester

Great stuff! I think we go into 3rd or 4th. 2012 is tough to beat.

[wolfie09]

[rochesterdave]

50 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

GFS says no snow until at least new year with some crazy warmth.

We need a major pattern shift. It’ll come at some point

[rochesterdave]

Jamestown or bust

[cny rider]

32 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

We need a major pattern shift. It’ll come at some point

 

Typically around April 1. 

[vortmax]

1 hour ago, rochesterdave said:

Jamestown or bust

YYZ special. 

[Thinksnow18]

2 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

We need a major pattern shift. It’ll come at some point

Yep!!! 2023…

[wolfie09]

[Thinksnow18]

17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I was just thinking about this. I’m shocked we’re ahead of this time last year. However, things aren’t looking  good for too much more snowfall this month, at least in Buffalo. 

[TugHillMatt]

38 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Wow. Syracuse is waaaay ahead of last year's total... If we lived in Tennessee...

[Thinksnow18]

3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Wow. Syracuse is waaaay ahead of last year's total... If I lived in Tennessee...

Fixed it…

[BuffaloWeather]

52 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Those are going to look pretty bad in 2 weeks. We will all be down 2-3 feet.

[TugHillMatt]

20 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Fixed it…

Thanks! I'm still disappointed you haven't found me a shanty in Worth, NY in which to banish me.

[TugHillMatt]

12 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Those are going to look pretty bad in 2 weeks. We will all be down 2-3 feet.

Yeah, I figure we average about 8 to 10 inches a week through the winter months. Each week without snow really adds up to a deficit.

[Syrmax]

5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

OP GFS gets warmer and warmer each run.  Hopefully Ensembles don't start showing the same.

Merry Christmas.

So you're telling me there's a chance for a down home ol' fashioned SizzleMas?

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

So you're telling me there's a chance for a down home ol' fashioned SizzleMas?

Payback for last year, pretty much the best christmas you could get here.

[BuffaloWeather]

Hey who knows maybe January is rocking with 40 degree lakes and we all get a 100" month, its possible.

If we get a clipper pattern going in January for 2-3 weeks its not out of the realm of possibilities. The problem has been no cold air.

[BuffaloWeather]

Christmas Miracle?

[TugHillMatt]

I was just going to post that..and had to include this little gift because the trolls are out.... LOL

[MJO812]

9 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Christmas Miracle?

Nice Miller B

Nice block 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Had a few thoughts as were talking about this lack of snow.  I looked at the past 80 years of seasonal totals for BUF to compare the decades against each other.  For the most recent decade 2010 (which I think most would say has been our snow drought) we were only what work down to 4" below normal for the 80 year period.  2010 was right in the middle and saw 4 decades higher and 3 decades lower.  This is first bar graph.  Second graph I broke things down a little different.  Since the decades comparisons shows were are not really missing that much snow why does it seem that way.  My thought is the snow is shifting months.  I broken the decade totals down into monthly subtotals and compared those against the season total to come up with the percent of snowfall for the season that fell within a certain month.  First thing that I see is November as the only month that has seen a decade over decade decline going from 15% of the seasonal totals to less than 7% now.  I'm starting to wonder if this trend is now also bleeding into early December impacting that month as it saw a sharp decline in 2010.  On the flip side January and February are now becoming our core snow months, in terms of the percent of our seasonal total that fell that month.  Does that make sense?  Thoughts?

[winter_rules]

6 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Payback for last year, pretty much the best christmas you could get here.

That’s ironic, because East of Binghamton it was essentially the worst Christmas Eve into Christmas we could ask for in terms of snow.  We lost +/-30” of snow in about 24hrs with something like 2” of rain to help wash it away.  Went to bed with rain on a diminishing snowpack, woke up to brown ground with water flowing everywhere, including through my unfinished basement.  

[Thinksnow18]

6 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Had a few thoughts as were talking about this lack of snow.  I looked at the past 80 years of seasonal totals for BUF to compare the decades against each other.  For the most recent decade 2010 (which I think most would say has been our snow drought) we were only what work down to 4" below normal for the 80 year period.  2010 was right in the middle and saw 4 decades higher and 3 decades lower.  This is first bar graph.  Second graph I broke things down a little different.  Since the decades comparisons shows were are not really missing that much snow why does it seem that way.  My thought is the snow is shifting months.  I broken the decade totals down into monthly subtotals and compared those against the season total to come up with the percent of snowfall for the season that fell within a certain month.  First thing that I see is November as the only month that has seen a decade over decade decline going from 15% of the seasonal totals to less than 7% now.  I'm starting to wonder if this trend is now also bleeding into early December impacting that month as it saw a sharp decline in 2010.  On the flip side January and February are now becoming our core snow months, in terms of the percent of our seasonal total that fell that month.  Does that make sense?  Thoughts?

Yes it makes sense…it’s showing what is becoming painfully obvious, our winters are getting shorter and now there’s good proof. 

[Thinksnow18]

Overnight and AM runs on GFS and Euro were a good step in the right direction. The 6z does change that Xmas system to a half grinch/gift but overall cold is more dominant on both runs.

[tim123]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Yes it makes sense…it’s showing what is becoming painfully obvious, our winters are getting shorter and now there’s good proof. 

I remember as a kid the 80s where horrible for winters. Mostly pacific dominated decade. Its cycles people

[rochesterdave]

3 hours ago, winter_rules said:

That’s ironic, because East of Binghamton it was essentially the worst Christmas Eve into Christmas we could ask for in terms of snow.  We lost +/-30” of snow in about 24hrs with something like 2” of rain to help wash it away.  Went to bed with rain on a diminishing snowpack, woke up to brown ground with water flowing everywhere, including through my unfinished basement.  

He doesn’t care. He loves making that point because he knows nearly all of the state had a green Christmas last year. Which actually made it even better for him. He’s the little brother of the group. 

[rochesterdave]

1 hour ago, tim123 said:

I remember as a kid the 80s where horrible for winters. Mostly pacific dominated decade. Its cycles people

The 80’s were atrocious in Rochester. Very similar to the last 4 years. 90’s and 2010’s were great. But the 70’s took the cake. 
But this is global warming. You can’t have 4/10 of the warmest years in the last decade, after 20 decades of records, and not see a statistically meaningful trend.