Weather Mike Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Yep. This is the probably how it goes down. It’ll want to go right into Jamestown. Not buying into anything at this time as this system does not get on shore until Thursday I believe and we can get some sampling. And I am speaking only about the potential system for Saturday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, Weather Mike said: Not buying into anything at this time as this system does not get on shore until Thursday I believe and we can get some sampling. Hi Mike! Where are you located? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 6 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Hi Mike! Where are you located? I have a home in Tampa Fl but also a winter home up in Lake Placid so I go back and forth Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Noticing a lot of different ideas from all sorts of posters all over the boards…some good posters on NE forum go into good, analytical discussions regarding the next 10-14 days after this work week. Many believe the Iceland/Greenland block development which has begin to take shape will impact our weather through the new year with more frequent cold air and less warming, the exact opposite that has taken place. Even our NWS in Buffalo looks optimistic about more wintery weather after Thursday. Things are looking better than they have in some time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 23 minutes ago, Weather Mike said: I have a home in Tampa Fl but also a winter home up in Lake Placid so I go back and forth Great town. I was up skiing two years ago. Loved it. Good food and great snow. Stayed at Whiteface Lodge. Man, that’s a classic place. Right out of Switzerland. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 12z GFS is tainty, especially mid levels. Right on the line IMBY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Canadian is weak and toasty too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Yeah, we know where this one is headed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Only"saving grace" if you can call it that, is a quick lake response on the backside.. Obviously models aren't in agreement there either..GFS has a quick shot of NW flow on the backside while Canadian brings another SW through with W/WNW enhancement.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Ukie has never really been on board.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 IDK. GEFS is as good as it’s been. I haven’t totally thrown in the towel. Come on inch!!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 2 hours ago, Weather Mike said: I have a home in Tampa Fl but also a winter home up in Lake Placid so I go back and forth That's a good place to be. I could see that area getting a decent snowfall this weekend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 4 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said: That's a good place to be. I could see that area getting a decent snowfall this weekend. I will be up there Thursday so was watching this weekends system. I agree with your assessment. Lets hope it continues and also help some other members on this forum. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Yeah, we know where this one is headed lol A Low near Philadelphia in years past would have easily produced snow here. My, how times have changed... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Yikes...not a good 12Z run if you're looking for a White Christmas. Northern New England should be white. Looks like the cold air continues to stay bottled up in Canada. Are we going to blow through yet another December with waaaaay below average snow totals? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Euro is south and weaker with the precipitation shield but also colder.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 GFS on the other hand brings the low farther north before cutting east, heavier precipitation but closer proximity to the mix line.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 A Euro, GFS blend would be the ideal solution. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: GFS on the other hand brings the low farther north before cutting east, heavier precipitation but closer proximity to the mix line.. I do feel this is the ultimate gradient system where the 90 north stays mostly snow and the PA line is rain with a mix in between. Either way it’s not a juiced system so at best it’s a few inches where it stays snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 Lets just hope the cold air doesn't keep getting delayed and delayed like the last few years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 14, 2021 Author Share Posted December 14, 2021 EPS has a servicable pattern later next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: EPS has a servicable pattern later next week. One thing to notice with the ensembles is the lack of a Bermuda high. That in itself is a victory 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Diving down into the specifics, a positively tilted trough axis will sprawl across the Central Plains and Upper Mid-West Friday night. Downwind of this system, across the Lower Great Lakes and Ohio Valley, zonal flow along with a corresponding jet streak will support a wave of low pressure to develop under the equatorward entrance region over the lower Ohio Valley. As the jet streak strengthens Saturday, along with the shift of the overall pattern to the east, aforementioned surface low will shift east into the Mid- Atlantic states Saturday before exiting the East Coast on Sunday. While the overall theme remains consistent, there continues to remain a few differences between track, timing and thermal profiles among model packages. Overall, expect precipitation chances to increase from southwest to northeast late Friday night and early Saturday morning, with the chances peaking during the day Saturday. Meanwhile colder air will be in the process of filtering across the Great Lakes as the aforementioned system passes by to the south of the region. That being said, there will likely be a narrow strip of at least minor accumulating snow on the northern side of this system, with rain occurring closer to the center of the low, and therefore a mix of rain and snow between the two precipitation types. The GFS continues to remain stronger and further north with the track of the low, whereas the ECMWF continues to track weaker and further south. Therefore, due to model inconsistencies the forecast caries a mix of rain and snow through the day on Saturday. By Saturday night, much colder air will have filtered in across the region with 850mb temperatures dropping towards -11C, which will support lake effect snow to develop southeast of both lakes in the areas favored by northwest flow. Upper level ridging and associated surface high pressure will begin to build in across the region Sunday night through Monday night. Initially the associated dry air will act to diminish the lake effect snow potential Sunday afternoon, with dry weather to follow for the start of the new work week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheClimateChanger Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Some locations are near record high annual mean temperatures through yesterday. Will be interesting to see whether the upcoming warmth will be enough for first place on these lists. Buffalo Erie Syracuse Oddly enough, Rochester quite a bit lower than the other closest regional airport sites for both this year and last. Still quite warm, but not close to the top (2020 is 12th). It appears to be a new disconnect as several recent years show up warmer (2006, 2016, 2017, and 2012 at #1). Rochester 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 NAM looks as if it has a northern piece it would phase with. I’d expect a robust northern solution. It being the NAM and all…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 NAVGEM (for what it’s worth) ticks south and strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 59 minutes ago, TheClimateChanger said: Some locations are near record high annual mean temperatures through yesterday. Will be interesting to see whether the upcoming warmth will be enough for first place on these lists. Buffalo Erie Syracuse Oddly enough, Rochester quite a bit lower than the other closest regional airport sites for both this year and last. Still quite warm, but not close to the top (2020 is 12th). It appears to be a new disconnect as several recent years show up warmer (2006, 2016, 2017, and 2012 at #1). Rochester 4/10 in the last decade. Try and say the climate isn’t screwed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 Today that was noticeable to me. While driving, I couldn’t help but think this is our new norm. Instead of struggling get up to freezing, we’re struggling to REACH freezing! All around I see brown and no snow, no proof of the 6 or so inches we’ve received to this point. In my opinion we’ve become an extension of the mid Atlantic and their temperature averages. It won’t show up in the 30 year average but it would in the last 10 years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 14, 2021 Share Posted December 14, 2021 18z GFS is even toastier. ICON fwiw more Euroish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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