BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 We got one thing going for us. Lake temperatures will be at record highs as we head into the new year and our coldest normals of the season. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 It might not get below 32 here for an entire week in Mid/Late December incredible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 For now, it's watching the snow fall in Tahoe: Tahoe CityDowntown Webcam | Tahoetopia CAZ072-NVZ002-132330- /O.CON.KREV.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-211215T0600Z/ Greater Lake Tahoe Area- Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Stateline, and Incline Village 320 PM PST Sun Dec 12 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 feet, except 4 to 8 feet above 7000 feet. Sierra ridge winds are expected to exceed 100 mph with occasional gusts 40 to 50 mph possible in lower elevations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 Just booked my flights and rental car for Alaska in August of 2022. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 11 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: For now, it's watching the snow fall in Tahoe: Tahoe CityDowntown Webcam | Tahoetopia CAZ072-NVZ002-132330- /O.CON.KREV.WS.W.0003.000000T0000Z-211215T0600Z/ Greater Lake Tahoe Area- Including the cities of South Lake Tahoe, Truckee, Stateline, and Incline Village 320 PM PST Sun Dec 12 2021 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 PM PST TUESDAY... * WHAT...Heavy snow expected. Total snow accumulations of 2 to 4 feet, except 4 to 8 feet above 7000 feet. Sierra ridge winds are expected to exceed 100 mph with occasional gusts 40 to 50 mph possible in lower elevations. Now to leave Cicero and head to the greater Lake Tahoe area 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 GEFS next week don't look too bad 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 I honestly think things are looking good for a White Christmas this year. Next week looks pretty active with lots of moving parts and cold air becoming available. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 8 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Just booked my flights and rental car for Alaska in August of 2022. Who ya going with? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 36 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I honestly think things are looking good for a White Christmas this year. Next week looks pretty active with lots of moving parts and cold air becoming available. Agreed, Dec 20-23 looks like it can deliver. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Storm is gone on 6z GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 I’m dreaming of a white…… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 The traditional torch, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 44 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Who ya going with? My wife and my uncle and aunt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Mike Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Storm is gone on 6z GFS. It was also gone on the 00z Hope it comes back. What does the Euro show ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 25 minutes ago, Weather Mike said: It was also gone on the 00z Hope it comes back. What does the Euro show ? Euro has a wave forming on that front over the southeast. It brings snow/mix into the northeast later Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 39 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: I’m dreaming of a white…… Meh. We will be entering the up and down pattern again. The best we can hope for this year is we have a system develop along the trough portion...which is very much possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Yeah euro looks similar to some previous GFS runs .But no room to breathe verbatim lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 I wouldn’t t be surprised to see the storm back by later today or tomorrow runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 With the good ol' sizzle SW winds Sizzlecuse, the least wintry-temperature place of Upstate NY, is already at the forecasted high of near 50 degrees. Always, ALWAYS warmer here than forecasted and only a degree or two cooler than the heavily metropolitan NYC/Long Island. The Newark of New York. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Not sure how outdated the LR disco is but not much mention of snow.. Although forecast shows snow-mix-snow for Friday night through Saturday night.. A trough tracking across the Midwest and Great Lakes on Saturday, will start to increase the potential for the next round of showers from Friday night into Saturday. This will occur as the sfc low with the trough tracks across the Ohio Valley to New England during the same time. With the track of the low a bit more south, the best chances for precip will be for areas closer to the NY/PA line, and then east of Lake Ontario as the system tracks NE. This scenario overall will need to be watched as guidance is split on strength of trough and placement of rain, with some suggesting much farther south of the forecast area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Kbgm This dry period will be brief as another low pressure system approaches the area late Friday night/early Saturday morning. Snow or a rain/snow mix will be possible until temperatures warm up during the daytime hours with the precipitation transitioning to just rain showers. Then as temperatures cool during the overnight, there will be a transition back to snow. The system moves east of the region Sunday resulting in drier weather. The ECMWF has an upper level ridge overhead and a deepening trough over the Central US which allows this system to track into the Northeast. The GFS also has these features but they are not as defined, so there is more zonal flow which keeps this system to the south. Due to this uncertainty, NBM was used for PoPs though they were decreased for Friday night as guidance appeared to be too high with most models fairly dry until Saturday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 I think this is the last real warm week. As we head into the end of December even slightly above average temps can give us snow. It looks to be up and down though with no real arctic air until after Christmas. The end of the GEFS show the Epo going negative and slowly bleeding eastward. Our biggest worry is that SE ridge. Canada has loads of cold air to tap, that will eventually happen. This isn't like a lot of recent years where Canada is on fire and no source of cold air. I'm still pretty optimistic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 GFS still slides the next system mainly south of us but is north of the previous run.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 13, 2021 Author Share Posted December 13, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: With the good ol' sizzle SW winds Sizzlecuse, the least wintry-temperature place of Upstate NY, is already at the forecasted high of near 50 degrees. Always, ALWAYS warmer here than forecasted and only a degree or two cooler than the heavily metropolitan NYC/Long Island. The Newark of New York. I just got back from a glorious bicycle ride. If it’s not going to snow this isn’t a bad way to be. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 7 minutes ago, cny rider said: I just got back from a glorious bicycle ride. If it’s not going to snow this isn’t a bad way to be. My lunchtime walk was in jeans and a tshirt. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 I like it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 13, 2021 Share Posted December 13, 2021 Single digits for some after as well. Can it really be winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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