SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 So wanted to look at the all time record high lake levels on Lake Erie at Buffalo and was surprised that the event last November was actually ranked #2 at 11.12 ft. Was curious about the #1 event from December 1985 and found this article. 60 mph+ winds, lot of lake shore flooding down in Erie PA, 2 Oswego College students get swept off a break wall... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 30 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: So wanted to look at the all time record high lake levels on Lake Erie at Buffalo and was surprised that the event last November was actually ranked #2 at 11.12 ft. Was curious about the #1 event from December 1985 and found this article. 60 mph+ winds, lot of lake shore flooding down in Erie PA, 2 Oswego College students get swept off a break wall... look farther back https://www.buffalohistorygazette.net/2010/09/the-lake-erie-seiche-disaster-of-1844.html?m=1 https://www.google.com/amp/s/buffalonews.com/news/local/history/oct-18-1844-great-flood-of-1844-devastates-buffalo/article_73b0e94c-fe27-5e7e-ac12-691a85809139.amp.html "Purists would call it a seiche, the Great Lakes version of a tidal wave, but for the victims there was little difference," wrote The News' Mike Vogel on Oct. 20, 1988. "A wall of water swept across the harbor and city, drowning 78 people while driving ships ashore and washing away scores of homes and wharves." 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 High Wind Warning now, gust to 70 mph. Seems like the real deal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: look farther back https://www.buffalohistorygazette.net/2010/09/the-lake-erie-seiche-disaster-of-1844.html?m=1 https://www.google.com/amp/s/buffalonews.com/news/local/history/oct-18-1844-great-flood-of-1844-devastates-buffalo/article_73b0e94c-fe27-5e7e-ac12-691a85809139.amp.html "Purists would call it a seiche, the Great Lakes version of a tidal wave, but for the victims there was little difference," wrote The News' Mike Vogel on Oct. 20, 1988. "A wall of water swept across the harbor and city, drowning 78 people while driving ships ashore and washing away scores of homes and wharves." It’s amazing to me that we live in the Great Lake where this can actually happen. It’s our version of storm surge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: High Wind Warning now, gust to 70 mph. Seems like the real deal. We can only hope! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 10 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Where will you be heading? Have to work Saturday but going to try and sneak out early to be down to the Outer Harbor by 4 as that seems to be the general look for the timing on the front to roll through. If this track and intensity holds this could end up being a pretty significant wind event here. I'm thinking waterfront, just south of city. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Hrrr showing winds to 75 mph in buffalo and rochester 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Another day, another dusting. Last one for a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 31 minutes ago, tim123 said: Hrrr showing winds to 75 mph in buffalo and rochester I'm taking bets on how many sections of @BuffaloWeathers new fence he loses. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 NWS has wind gust to 64 Kt at Buffalo Saturday afternoon. That’s 73 mph. Yeesh! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 hour ago, Luke_Mages said: I'm taking bets on how many sections of @BuffaloWeathers new fence he loses. not anymore this fence was done perfect! went 42" deep with loads of concrete. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 16 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: NWS has wind gust to 64 Kt at Buffalo Saturday afternoon. That’s 73 mph. Yeesh! I've only experienced 70+ mph on a high peak. Got close in a few events along waterfront but thinking 60-70. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 @Ericjcrash have we both moved north ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Would love to hear an analysis on this upcoming event. To really make the widespread 65+ gusts happen per HRRR, I think Delta got it right - it's just not happening at the optimal time of day. Even though there is good CAA/pressure rises post-front, there will be little to no diurnal mixing to help out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Just now, vortmax said: Would love to hear an analysis on this upcoming event. To really make the widespread 65+ gusts happen, I think Delta got it right - it's just not happening at the optimal time of day. Even though there is good CAA/pressure rises post-front, there will be little to no diurnal mixing to help out. This storm would be truly scary if the frontal passage hit mid day. I think we still see sporadic damage but dodge a major bullet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Looks like a nice little night on lake Ontario tomorrow even. Just some casual 22 foot waves. WSW wind 44 to 49 kt decreasing to 28 to 33 kt. Winds could gust as high as 65 kt. Showers likely, mainly before 1am. Waves 22 ft subsiding to 12 ft. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 That razor thin low topped squall line might be the highest peak winds, which should only last for 2-3 minutes, but often times thats all it takes to cause some serious destruction. That's the only thing that will really tap the low level jet. Then I expect about a 30 minute lull until the CAA kicks in at which point we get the general sustained winds around 35mps with frequents gusts in the low 50's. Should be all over by midnight, if not a few hours sooner. Generator is ready and I may take a drive around in those post frontal winds for a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 26 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I've only experienced 70+ mph on a high peak. Got close in a few events along waterfront but thinking 60-70. I went outside during the peak of hurricane arthur in OBX 2014. It was literally painful. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 ...LAKESHORE FLOOD WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 4 PM SATURDAY TO 4 AM EST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Significant lakeshore flooding expected. * WHERE...Lake Ontario of Oswego and Jefferson counties. * WHEN...From 4 PM Saturday to 4 AM EST Sunday. * IMPACTS...The combination of very strong west to southwest winds and significant wave action will result in lakeshore flooding along the immediate lakeshore, especially in bays, inlets, harbors, and other low lying areas along the shoreline. Some locations that may experience flooding include Sandy Pond, Chaumont Bay, and Black River Bay. Shoreline erosion is also expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 10, 2021 Author Share Posted December 10, 2021 26 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: That razor thin low topped squall line might be the highest peak winds, which should only last for 2-3 minutes, but often times thats all it takes to cause some serious destruction. That's the only thing that will really tap the low level jet. Then I expect about a 30 minute lull until the CAA kicks in at which point we get the general sustained winds around 35mps with frequents gusts in the low 50's. Should be all over by midnight, if not a few hours sooner. Generator is ready and I may take a drive around in those post frontal winds for a bit. what time for max winds off erie? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 31 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: what time for max winds off erie? Looks to be between 4pm and 8pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 40 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: what time for max winds off erie? There are two times I would focus on, the narrow low topped squall line with the frontal passage and then about an hour after that once the CAA really kicks in. Frontal passage is at about 330pm on the hi res models, then 5-6pm looks like the best long duration sustained winds with max gusts. We can tune this up as the new runs roll in, but things look pretty locked up. I'm thinking Southern Ontario really takes this on the chin as they are a few hours ahead of us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Looks like the potential for another above average month wrt precipitation.. Last month finished at nearly 6" and 2.5" so far this month, more to come this week, too bad it doesn't translate to AN snow lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like the potential for another above average month wrt precipitation.. Last month finished at nearly 6" and 2.5" so far this month, more to come this week, too bad it doesn't translate to AN snow lol Nice to see Cali getting a lot of precip love! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 1 minute ago, DeltaT13 said: Nice to see Cali getting a lot of precip love! The amount of rain/snow the western mountains get never ceases to amaze me. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 21 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: The amount of rain/snow the western mountains get never ceases to amaze me. Hopefully they can build the snowpack in the mountains so they’ll have water next summer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_rules Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 20 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Nice to see Cali getting a lot of precip love! I was thinking the same thing! I check Mammoth Mtn webcams almost daily throughout the winter. Must be an amazing place to live. Epic snowfalls followed closely by bluebird skies until the next big snowfall moves in. On a related note, I’m just noticing that our creeks and rivers are finally getting down to lower “normal” levels. They have been running very high since at least July. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 There’s NEVER backside snow like this. Never. These models….. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 28 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: There’s NEVER backside snow like this. Never. These models….. I think that’s right what you say, but I keep going back to Tombo’s post yesterday about this timeframe as one to watch. The GFS has been wildly consistent, at least in terms of a storm of some sort just before Xmas. I’m liking our chances of something popping Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 10, 2021 Share Posted December 10, 2021 Honestly just stay under 200 hours on these models and you won't have to worry about this fantasy bullshit. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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