Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[tim123]

Lake snow for days after. 

[Thinksnow18]

That’s the gift that keeps on giving Clark

[tim123]

Shitters full. 

[tim123]

Like my thinking of 70 plus gusts from this storm buffalo to rochester. And the big torch for next week looks more and more muted.

[CNY_WX]

46 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

There she is. I’ve missed you fantasy storm

That has as much chance of verifying as the Giants have of winning the Super Bowl this year. 

[tombo82685]

another .5 overnight. Not a bad little event, almost 4" since monday night

[tombo82685]

Just some morning musings here

So we all know the torch is coming for the next 7 days most likely, it's a foregone conclusion with the deep -pna forming out west. You just aren't going to stop the se ridge when you get a massive trough out west with nothing to keep the se ridge in check.

But some changes are starting to brew in parts of the pacific, specifically the -epo region. Some of the ens like the eps are jacking that ridging up so much you're getting basically a ridge bridge across the pole into Scandanavia. What this will do is force the cold that was over the high latitudes south into the mid latitudes. Can see the ridge bridge and the strength of the epo on the eps here

Those changes across the pole and into the epo will force some good cold south into the US. Problem is, we still haven't corrected the pac jet placements as to where it retracted and the wavebreaks that just reinforce the -epo on the western part of AK and into the Aleutians. This placement is just going to continue to dump the cold out west and maybe into the plains too. Can see below the pac jet from day 6 till the end of the run, just virtually no change at all. 

I would like to see that push further east so we can get a wave break closer to the west coast, or you could just retract the jet further west in the pacific and pull everything west, but the current spot just promotes -pna formation. 

The Mjo is going to push into the western hemisphere but that doesn't look to happen till probably near Christmas time. Can see the propagation of the -olr over the next 2 weeks. Not until the end of the 6-10 day period and 11-15 day period till we get phase 7 and pushing towards 8. The MJO argues for any sustained colder chancrqes would be till Christmas or after. I'm hoping once we get this convection into 7-8-1 that it will change that pacific jet structure to alter the epo configuration and maybe allow for some +pna.

Clearly see the base state since late summer has been stuck in the maritimes, but this new wave is pushing dry air into the base state which is allowing for -olr to push into whem

Here is the response for phase 6 and 7 in nina

Phase 6 was basically the pattern for most of nov where we had a +pna but due to the trough in goa, didn't really have much cold air as it was pacific oriented the airmasses. Phase 7 maginifies the se ridge look but also shows if you can get some -nao action it could push the colder anoms south and force some gradient looks, epo also strongly negative which is showing up in ens. 

So we have the mjo that argues for nothing sustained cold wise for the next 10 days or so and the jet configuration out in the pacific also argues for -pna formation too. So lets look at the stratosphere, this is where it gets a little interesting. The strat is going to strengthen next 7 days or so as we come off the good wave 2 hit that brought this shot of colder air. Look at the period around dec 18, thats another strong wave 2 hit with big ridging in scandanavia region. The orientation of the pv for sending cold here isn't ideal, but its workable.

I would watch the period between dec 16 to just before Christmas for models to maybe jump onto colder looks with some +pna help and increase in  a winter storm chance. This is assuming the wave 2 hit is correct. We can see below, this is the strongest wave 2 hit so far this winter and I'm expecting a response from it. 

So to sum up, now up to Christmas mild risks are much higher, but the wild card is the strat if that can induce some cold. I can see some sort of gradient pattern setting up if we don't get the strat help. The -epo is going to want to dump cold into the US but with jet configuration getting -epo where it's at, it will promote a -pna.  Hoping post Christmas with some mjo help and more strat hits we can get reshuffle the pacific a bit for some sustained colder weather. One plus in all this. Canada is cold, so we just need the pattern to bring the cold south. It's not like we are dealing with a blowtorched canada that will take weeks to recover from 

[vortmax]

Thanks for the teleconnection & longwave pattern analysis. Really helps put things in perspective when it comes to potential sensible weather!

[wolfie09]

This system has all the hallmarks of a high impact wind event for
our region, with a sub-980MB low rapidly deepening as it passes just
to our north and west. Strong cold advection and 15MB/6HR pressure
rises behind the cold front will support deep post-frontal mixing
and efficient downward momentum transfer. There are still some
differences in model guidance with respect to winds aloft, with the
stronger GFS/ECMWF showing 70 knots at the top of the mixed layer,
while the weaker NAM shows 60 knots. Even the weaker NAM solution
would support Watch/Warning criteria wind gusts. The strongest winds
will occur in a southwest flow regime, maximizing the channeling
effect at the northeast end of Lake Erie.

Given the above, we have issued a High Wind Watch from Chautauqua
County northeast across the Niagara Frontier to Rochester, and also
for Jefferson County. These areas are climatologically favored for
damaging winds with this low track and wind direction. Peak wind
gusts may exceed 65 mph given the magnitude of dynamics coming
together with this system. The system is moving very fast, so winds
will peak in a 4-6 hour window from Saturday afternoon through
Saturday evening. Farther inland, gusts of up to 50 mph are possible
from the interior Southern Tier through the western Finger Lakes to
Central NY.

[CNY_WX]

Nice little overachiever last night. Measured 5.7 inches this morning, 0.31 liquid. All this will be a memory after the next 2 days. 

[BuffaloWeather]

27 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

This system has all the hallmarks of a high impact wind event for
our region, with a sub-980MB low rapidly deepening as it passes just
to our north and west. Strong cold advection and 15MB/6HR pressure
rises behind the cold front will support deep post-frontal mixing
and efficient downward momentum transfer. There are still some
differences in model guidance with respect to winds aloft, with the
stronger GFS/ECMWF showing 70 knots at the top of the mixed layer,
while the weaker NAM shows 60 knots. Even the weaker NAM solution
would support Watch/Warning criteria wind gusts. The strongest winds
will occur in a southwest flow regime, maximizing the channeling
effect at the northeast end of Lake Erie.

Given the above, we have issued a High Wind Watch from Chautauqua
County northeast across the Niagara Frontier to Rochester, and also
for Jefferson County. These areas are climatologically favored for
damaging winds with this low track and wind direction. Peak wind
gusts may exceed 65 mph given the magnitude of dynamics coming
together with this system. The system is moving very fast, so winds
will peak in a 4-6 hour window from Saturday afternoon through
Saturday evening. Farther inland, gusts of up to 50 mph are possible
from the interior Southern Tier through the western Finger Lakes to
Central NY.

I'll be at lakeshore at 2-3 PM, should be peak conditions. 

[sferic]

 3 inches in Cicero overnight, nice.

 

Maybe a dusting tonight to whiten everything up would be nice

[CNY_WX]

My niece lives just west of Central Square and she posted pictures on Facebook this morning. It looks like she got close to 10 inches there. 

[DeltaT13]

33 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'll be at lakeshore at 2-3 PM, should be peak conditions. 

This storm looks to be just 3 or 4 hours too slow to really be the big one.  We need these frontal passages to happen during the diurnal max, a late morning front passage would be perfect, but even early afternoon would be passable.  Instead, it looks to cross right around sunset and thus we lose out on the peak mixing.  A little further west in your backyard (BW) you are might squeak out some better winds.  The last 2 big storms (the last couple of years) have flopped because we didnt get the timing right, such a shame.

[wolfie09]

Past 72 hours according to NOHRSC..

 

[sferic]

Can tonight overachieve and surprise with an inch or two or half an inch is the max?

[tombo82685]

1 hour ago, wolfie09 said:

Past 72 hours according to NOHRSC..

 

are these maps based off COOP measurements?

[Syrmax]

6 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

My niece lives just west of Central Square and she posted pictures on Facebook this morning. It looks like she got close to 10 inches there. 

I was preoccupied last night but we ended up with 3.5" w/ 0.32" LE.  Not bad overall...about 9" the past 72 hrs.  

Just saw the latest op GFS run...4 cutters and torching in the east for the most part. Maybe a couple chances of some brief lake effect but wow...no help from synoptic systems. High chances we get to XMas well under average for snowfall. Again.

[rochesterdave]

It seems a bunch of you have been at least a little fortunate these last few day. I’ve still, as of yet, to see my first real inch. 
It snowed for several hours yesterday but didn’t really add up- daytime warmth, etc. 

Havent looked but the Roc airport’s probably claims we had 3” or something. Don’t buy it. 

Its not even real winter yet….

[DeltaT13]

47 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

It seems a bunch of you have been at least a little fortunate these last few day. I’ve still, as of yet, to see my first real inch. 
It snowed for several hours yesterday but didn’t really add up- daytime warmth, etc. 

Havent looked but the Roc airport’s probably claims we had 3” or something. Don’t buy it. 

Its not even real winter yet….

I had a little over and inch from the last couple days of light snow.  My snowboard had about 1.5" but its a bit biased because it accumulates on it more effectively early in the season with marginal temps.  Definitely a slow start but I seem to be doing a tad better than you so far, I'm at 5.6" on the season.  

[Thinksnow18]

1 hour ago, Syrmax said:

I was preoccupied last night but we ended up with 3.5" w/ 0.32" LE.  Not bad overall...about 9" the past 72 hrs.  

Just saw the latest op GFS run...4 cutters and torching in the east for the most part. Maybe a couple chances of some brief lake effect but wow...no help from synoptic systems. High chances we get to XMas well under average for snowfall. Again.

Well…the GFS 18z is completely different now…you know the old adage, wait 10 minutes or one model run snd everything will change? 

[Thinksnow18]

16 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

There's some pretty dry air at the 800mb level. I think a lot of what will be showing up on the radar will be virga. Whatever makes it to the ground will fall as light, fine flakes. I wouldn't expect anything more than a dusting or token flakes, but I'll eat my crow if I'm wrong.

You own a crow???

[CNY_WX]

16 minutes ago, Blue Moon said:

I gotta eat something.

I had a couple at my bird feeder this morning. 

[CNY_WX]

I’ve received 15.9 inches this season so far including 10.8 inches this week. Last year at this time I was at 7.8 inches, about half of this year. 

[rochesterdave]

3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

I had a little over and inch from the last couple days of light snow.  My snowboard had about 1.5" but its a bit biased because it accumulates on it more effectively early in the season with marginal temps.  Definitely a slow start but I seem to be doing a tad better than you so far, I'm at 5.6" on the season.  

Yeah. I suspect you’ve done a bit better than me. But I don’t do the snowboard science thing. I just measure what’s accumulated and so far, at my two houses, we haven’t had over 1”. We’ve now had several dusting s in both Pittsford and West Irondequoit. My folks live in Pittsford and I stay there 3 times a week. They usually do better early season- being away from Ontario. But this year both locations have done the same. I’ve noticed better returns on the west side so I’m not real shocked you’ve done better. 
Have fun with your wind! 

[sferic]

Radar seems good. I'll take a sold inch

[tombo82685]

1 hour ago, sferic said:

Radar seems good. I'll take a sold inch

Good amount of dry air in low levels that has to overcome. Could be a case where radars bark is worse than it’s bite 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

11 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'll be at lakeshore at 2-3 PM, should be peak conditions. 

Where will you be heading?  Have to work Saturday but going to try and sneak out early to be down to the Outer Harbor by 4 as that seems to be the general look for the timing on the front to roll through.  If this track and intensity holds this could end up being a pretty significant wind event here.    

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, sferic said:

Radar seems good. I'll take a sold inch

This is one of those situations I was telling you about. We get TONS of virga here. Seems there's always dry air... synoptic "sucks" here...at least since I have lived here.

[sferic]

15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

This is one of those situations I was telling you about. We get TONS of virga here. Seems there's always dry air... synoptic "sucks" here...at least since I have lived here.

Yes, I see !