Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[Thinksnow18]

10 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Anyone else thinking WNY will overachieve again today?  NWS does not seem interested at all with the snows east of Lake Erie.  Upstream radar just east of Detroit is starting to look really juicy and heading our way.  Mike C even highlighted this morning he was watching a band of more intense snows forming as the synoptic snow showers move away.  HRRR is even picking it up now with a very narrow bullseye off Erie this afternoon!  

The NWS seems slow to shift their line of thinking these days. They latch onto climo and the model run they choose and don’t come off until forced to, like last night. 

[TugHillMatt]

Yawn. Maybe half an inch overnight into this morning? Flurries now. Other than our 1 freak lake effect event, it's been underachiever city again. Half an inch less than predicted isn't a bit miss though... Lol

[Syrmax]

22 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yawn. Maybe half an inch overnight into this morning? Flurries now. Other than our 1 freak lake effect event, it's been underachiever city again. Half an inch less than predicted isn't a bit miss though... Lol

Picked up the big 5.0" yesterday early to roughly even out our snow events as I mostly missed the 6-8" you had a week ago. Same comditions now though...window dressing snowfall today it appears. That's fine. Cleaning my golf clubs for the big Sizzle that's coming! 

[sferic]

29 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Yawn. Maybe half an inch overnight into this morning? Flurries now. Other than our 1 freak lake effect event, it's been underachiever city again. Half an inch less than predicted isn't a bit miss though... Lol

Half inch here too in Cicero, hopefully an inch or 2 here  later and into tonight

[lakeeffectkid383]

Finished with an additional .8 “ here so storm total is 8.5” . Warning criteria when there was nothing posted at the start of the event. 

[CNY_WX]

A 0.2 inch dusting overnight puts me just over 5 inches since the snow started. We’re supposed to get another period of snow later this afternoon before the torch melts what we have on the ground now. 

[sferic]

5 minutes ago, CNY_WX said:

A 0.2 inch dusting overnight puts me just over 5 inches since the snow started. We’re supposed to get another period of snow later this afternoon before the torch melts what we have on the ground now. 

In Cicero, 3.5 yesterday, a half an inch this morning up to 4 inches, once in shy of you which squares it seems with the Brewerton 1 inch more than Cicero NWS probabilistic snow predictions

[tim123]

Saturday looking to be a classic high wind event. 

[DeltaT13]

20 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Saturday looking to be a classic high wind event. 

YES! Just came in to say that the 12z GFS is really trending in a nice direction for a very solid wind storm.  GFS probably overamps its a little but it has a low pressure rapidly deepening as it passes by, now dropping to 970mb, looking really good at this point in time.  We don't appear to have issues with a thermal trough developing that robs us of the rapid pressure increases post frontal passage either.  Would love to see this trend continue.  

[DeltaT13]

54 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Finished with an additional .8 “ here so storm total is 8.5” . Warning criteria when there was nothing posted at the start of the event. 

Here is the question I always ask, was a warning actually needed?   I think anyone in that snowbelt can handle 8 inches of blower powder without advanced notice.  Seems like you all took it in stride.  I didnt hear of any catastrophes, no roads shut down, no massive pile ups.  Just a perfect day for you lucky bastards

[BuffaloWeather]

[rochesterdave]

Enjoy Delta! I’ll be hoping my neighbors leaves pass on by and my power doesn’t go out

[tim123]

Think gusts to 70 are possible. I like what I am seeing on models.

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, CNY_WX said:

A 0.2 inch dusting overnight puts me just over 5 inches since the snow started. We’re supposed to get another period of snow later this afternoon before the torch melts what we have on the ground now. 

The torch? Yesterday took out most of the snow this area had... lol. Couldn't even last a day. The 60 degree temps the day before probably had a part in that. 

55 minutes ago, tim123 said:

Saturday looking to be a classic high wind event. 

Looks like a classic sizzle day as well.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Just now, tim123 said:

Think gusts to 70 are possible. I like what I am seeing on models.

Good. I'm running low on firewood.

[TugHillMatt]

Just now, tim123 said:

Think gusts to 70 are possible. I like what I am seeing on models.

Ok, this is where people who hate snow must get confused with me.... WHY would you like seeing 70 mph gusts? I realize it's a rare occasion and that can be exciting, but all it does is damage things.

[DeltaT13]

2 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Ok, this is where people who hate snow must get confused with me.... WHY would you like seeing 70 mph gusts? I realize it's a rare occasion and that can be exciting, but all it does is damage things.

Well I can enjoy wind without it having to damage something, but I do understand they go together at times.  I'm not worried about my house, I have the right preparations to avoid damage in all but the worst scenarios.  I don't understand how people who like weather don't enjoy wind, its one of the greatest visualizations of this giant fluid that we are living in and how it all goes together.  The power of it and how there is nothing we can do about it, it's just awe inspiring.  

Why would someone like snow?  All it does is cause accidents and hinders people, while at times causing damage and death.  I mean its the same thing to be honest.  

[wolfie09]

Behind the system this afternoon, SW flow turns W east of Lake
Erie. As this occurs, synoptic moisture peels off, however cold
advection brings the dendritic growth layer down toward and
below the lake-induced equilibrium level. While we are only
talking about 5-6 kft of saturated lake-induced instability, it
should be enough to yield 3-4" totals east of Lake Erie from
southern Erie County into Chautauqua and NW Cattaraugus
counties. This puts them just below advisory criteria, so this
will require some watching.

East of Lake Ontario, a well-defined lake band currently along
the upper St. Lawrence River will likely linger there much of
the day. However, as the system crossing the area pushes
eastward this evening, flow rapidly turns WNW and NW. This will
drag this band southward toward central Oswego County. Inversion
heights are a bit higher east of Lake Ontario at roughly 8 kft,
which yields a much better intersection of the dendritic growth
layer and thus even with a meandering band to the south, it
would seem resident time over Oswego County will secondarily
yield another area of 3-6" of snow farther south overnight
tonight in addition to the one over the St. Lawrence River
Valley today.

 

 

Models showing great continuity with dynamic system approaching the
area Friday night and Saturday. High confidence exists that the area
will remain in the warm sector, as the deepening surface low tracks
by to our northwest. Plume of Gulf moisture will stream northward
ahead of system cold front Friday night into Saturday morning. Some
elevated instability showing up on model soundings late Friday night
and Saturday morning could bring a few thunderstorms. A 50-60 knot
low level jet impinging on the area will bring some the potential
for strong winds to favorable south-southeast downslope area off the
Chautauqua Ridge and off the north slopes of the Tug Hill and
western Dacks, potentially exceeding 45 mph. Strong warm air
advection also allowing for rising overnight temperatures with far
western New York into the lower 50s by Saturday morning.

The first part of the day Saturday will see the warmest temperatures
ahead of the front with many areas getting into the lower to mid
60s, with temperatures falling behind the front some 15-20 degrees
by late in the day. Concern for Saturday will be the potential for
strong post-frontal winds in the typical southwest flow areas from
Lake Erie shore across the Niagara Frontier from Buffalo and Niagara
Falls to Rochester. BUFKIT momentum transfer profiles showing a
several hour period of 45+ knots mixing down, so certainly could be
looking at the potential for gusts reaching 60 mph for a time
Saturday afternoon. Will continue to mention in the HWO product.

[sferic]

16 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Ok, this is where people who hate snow must get confused with me.... WHY would you like seeing 70 mph gusts? I realize it's a rare occasion and that can be exciting, but all it does is damage things.

Well put

[wolfie09]

While nature can be scary it's the sizzle sizzle that takes the cake..Wind fatalities aren't much different than Cold/winter weather, when combined.. Either way all types of weather can be dangerous..

 

80years_2020 (1).pdf

[BuffaloWeather]

Driving in snow and cold results in quite a few car accidents and deaths. I’d be shocked if that isn’t leading cause of death. 

[BuffaloWeather]

I remember this video 

 

[wolfie09]

13 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Driving in snow and cold results in quite a few car accidents and deaths. I’d be shocked if that isn’t leading cause of death. 

Good point.. Obviously NWS does not take this into account..I read several sources that claim over 1k fatalities a year from winter related car accidents..

 

• More than 150,000 (156,164) auto crashes occur annually due to icy roads, federal data shows. (FHWA)
• Ohio consistently ranks as the state with the most winter driving fatalities, averaging 86 deaths per year. (ValuePenguin)
• Driving on snowy roads can take your car 10 times longer to stop completely. (AAA)
• Over 1,800 people die per year in a car crash due to driving in snowy and icy conditions. (FHWA)
• 35% of all respondents claim that the ice scraper is the most valuable tool to keep in a winter driving safety kit. (The Zebra)
• Slushy or snowy pavement causes a 30% to 40% speed reduction on major roads. (The Weather Channel)
• Around 70% of the population in the United States lives in places that have snowy and icy conditions during the winter. (FHWA)
• About 17% of vehicle crashes occur in snowy conditions. (NHTSA)
• 70% of roads in the United States are in snowy areas, which increases the threat of an accident significantly. (FHWA

[BuffaloWeather]

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Good point.. Obviously NWS does not take this into account..I read several sources that claim over 1k fatalities a year from winter related car accidents..

I was almost one of those in March of 2008 during that big snowstorm. Had my girlfriend drive and we spun 3 times went across the road and got hit my a truck going 40. A 1/2 spin early and I’m dead it hit the back of my car. From that point on only I drive in the snow. I consider myself a pretty good winter weather driver with all my chases. I’m pretty comfortable in it. 

[wolfie09]

This storm was the worst driving conditions I can remember being involved in..I was never happier to see snow as I traveled west from Albany to Herkimer lol

[Thinksnow18]

45 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Driving in snow and cold results in quite a few car accidents and deaths. I’d be shocked if that isn’t leading cause of death. 

You always argue that BW and stats say different. Cold snd snow are not in all 50 states on a consistent enough basis to make that claim stick. The heat is widespread, every state sees heatwaves and there’s no escaping massive power loss from heat, elderly dying as well as people in health during excruciating sports. Ever seen a football player die during a cold snap? No me neither, but it’s happened quite a few times from heat stroke during the hot periods. As the world grows hotter this will only widen with time.

[DeltaT13]

Stumbled across this image in my archive of weather things today.  A major northtown special was on tap way back in 2010.  I haven't looked to see how it panned out yet. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said:

Ok, this is where people who hate snow must get confused with me.... WHY would you like seeing 70 mph gusts? I realize it's a rare occasion and that can be exciting, but all it does is damage things.

Nothing quite like the feel of standing on the edge of the lake in one of these wind storms.  Watching 15’ waves smashing over the break wall just off in the distance.  The howling of the gusts.  Watching the lake level inch higher and higher as the Seiche effect sets in.  Closest thing I’ll ever experience to intercepting a hurricane landfall so that’s why I enjoy it. 
 

 

[rochesterdave]

About 20 years ago I was nearly killed by falling trees. It happened while I was a grounds keeper at a big local cemetery. We’d had gusty winds which earlier in the morning had toppled a pine tree, so the whole team loaded up three trucks and a chipper to clean it up. The fallen tree was of a line of stately old pines which stretched along a road that went north to south. 
While the deafening chain saws ripped and chipper raged, the west winds started to pick up again. Sawdust and flying bits were striking us in the face as an enormous gust came that literally pushed us all back on our heels. At that same moment, three 75’ pines, from the row, bent, uprooted and slammed to the ground in near unison. Thump, thump, thump. 
They fell west to east across the road, between the trucks, the chippers and the men. 
We looked at each other with utter disbelief. The boss, realizing how stupid he’d been, shouted for us to “get the hell out of here”. 
 

Ive always hated the violence of the wind. It’s the only thing in nature that truly unsettles me. Plus, I can’t stand being without power and internet. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Here we go!