Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[BGM Blizzard]

13 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I mean winter really doesn't start until Dec 21st. So much complaining already, I don't think many people know the normal temps don't really support winter in upstate until 2nd/3rd week of December.

Maybe so, but those that called for a early start/front-end loaded winter can enjoy their crow. Looks like December will be another dud unless there is a big 4th quarter comeback the week of Christmas.

[winter_rules]

21 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Maybe so, but those that called for a early start/front-end loaded winter can enjoy their crow. Looks like December will be another dud unless there is a big 4th quarter comeback the week of Christmas.

As someone who cares about snowpack, the one consistent winter pattern of late is that there will not be cold and snow on December 25th. 
 

Yes, I’m hoping this post jinx’s the pattern and we can all look back and scold me for being a fool later in the month!

[BuffaloWeather]

33 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Maybe so, but those that called for a early start/front-end loaded winter can enjoy their crow. Looks like December will be another dud unless there is a big 4th quarter comeback the week of Christmas.

Most forecasts featured a colder/snowiest December as that is predominantly true as Ninas are usually front loaded, Ninos back loaded.  

[Syrmax]

27 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Most forecasts featured a colder/snowiest December as that is predominantly true as Ninas are usually front loaded, Ninos back loaded.  

So what you're saying is we can expect wall-to-wall Sizzle this winter!

Frankly, that's OK with me. If we're going to go low, get in the gutter!

[BuffaloWeather]

2 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

So what you're saying is we can expect wall-to-wall Sizzle this winter!

Frankly, that's OK with me. If we're going to go low, get in the gutter!

I'm fine with it. Would love a few LES events, but the warmth keeps my running outside season going longer. The gyms are a cesspool of covid right now, all my friends have it, staying away for a few weeks. 

[Syrmax]

2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

I'm fine with it. Would love a few LES events, but the warmth keeps my running outside season going longer. The gyms are a cesspool of covid right now, all my friends have it, staying away for a few weeks. 

Yeah I've been exercising at home lately again. I figure an ounce of prevention...

[BuffaloWeather]

10 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Yeah I've been exercising at home lately again. I figure an ounce of prevention...

This is some December 2015 stuff. That month had a departure of like +12-14

[TugHillMatt]

Next week will be a great week for decorating the palm trees and hunting for local crocodiles!

[Syrmax]

15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

This is some December 2015 stuff. That month had a departure of like +12-14

Was 2015/16 winter during a La Niña? 

[TugHillMatt]

16 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

This place's ability to furnace, at its latitude, is ridiculous. (As you well know, it drives me bonkers.) I wouldn't be surprised. I will go with 58 degrees as the high though. 

With New York City not going above the mid 40s today, I fully expect us to once again be the warmest in the state for another day before midnight.

 

16 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

Might as well go all out and shoot for 60. KSYR currently sits at 44 and rising. 

Looks like we made it to right what I was calling for. It might tick me off, but I think I've got our local climate down pretty well. lol

[BuffaloWeather]

7 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Was 2015/16 winter during a La Niña? 

A strong Nino 

[CNY_WX]

13 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

 

Looks like we made it to right what I was calling for. It might tick me off, but I think I've got our local climate down pretty well. lol

It looks like we’ve reached the high for the day and are starting to cool off. The high at the airport on the hour was 14C. We’ll have to wait for the climate report to see if enough sizzle worked in before the frontal passage to reach 60. 

[rochesterdave]

A fourth crap winter will drive me to the looney bin. None of you guys really want it. Buf says he does just because he enjoys annoying us sensitive types. Lol. He makes a perfect little brother for our board. 

[TugHillMatt]

1 minute ago, rochesterdave said:

A fourth crap winter will drive me to the looney bin. None of you guys really want it. Buf says he does just because he enjoys annoying us sensitive types. Lol. He makes a perfect little brother for our board. 

He and Syrmax love trolling with their warminista hearts... 

[DeltaT13]

5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

A fourth crap winter will drive me to the looney bin. None of you guys really want it. Buf says he does just because he enjoys annoying us sensitive types. Lol. He makes a perfect little brother for our board. 

I have long since given up on getting mad about what the weather does, I just observe and enjoy it for what it is.  I love snow, but a warm winter has opportunities too.  

[wolfie09]

Kbgm issued some advisories..


WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up
  to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Onondaga, Madison and Southern Oneida counties.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty west winds this evening could cause
  areas of blowing snow into the overnight period. Winds then
  diminish to under 10 mph on Tuesday.

[Syrmax]

4 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Kbgm issued some advisories..


WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up
  to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Onondaga, Madison and Southern Oneida counties.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty west winds this evening could cause
  areas of blowing snow into the overnight period. Winds then
  diminish to under 10 mph on Tuesday.

My PnC:  

New snow accumulation of less than one inch possible.

Getting excited and Giddy! Buwahaa!

[wolfie09]

Probably not updated yet..

Map from this morning..

[wolfie09]

It has been raining pretty good all day with over and inch of rain so far..We made it to 50°..

[TugHillMatt]

15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Kbgm issued some advisories..


WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 8 PM THIS EVENING TO
3 PM EST TUESDAY...

* WHAT...Lake effect snow expected. Total snow accumulations of up
  to 5 inches. Winds gusting as high as 45 mph.

* WHERE...Onondaga, Madison and Southern Oneida counties.

* WHEN...From 8 PM this evening to 3 PM EST Tuesday.

* IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous
  conditions could impact the morning commute.

* ADDITIONAL DETAILS...Gusty west winds this evening could cause
  areas of blowing snow into the overnight period. Winds then
  diminish to under 10 mph on Tuesday.

I'm actually pretty surprised by this. They must be putting the mesos into consideration, looking upstream, and seeing some variable wind directions. 

[BuffaloWeather]

47 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

A fourth crap winter will drive me to the looney bin. None of you guys really want it. Buf says he does just because he enjoys annoying us sensitive types. Lol. He makes a perfect little brother for our board. 

You know I luv ya Dave! Have hope. Statistical history is on our side. It's been over 30 years since Buffalo has less then 100" of snow in 3 straight years, and 50 years since its had less then 90" for 3 straight years. Buf and Roc snowfall is pretty close. 

[TugHillMatt]

Whew. Strong, gusty winds really kicked in here. I am guessing the cold front. Checked temps and it's down to the mid 40's...actually a pretty sharp drop. So, yes, cold is coming back for a bit!

[CNY_WX]

5 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Whew. Strong, gusty winds really kicked in here. I am guessing the cold front. Checked temps and it's down to the mid 40's...actually a pretty sharp drop. So, yes, cold is coming back for a bit!

Wind shifted here about 3:20. The temperature has dropped about 5 degrees since then down to 45. 

[TugHillMatt]

I'm surprised we STILL have some parking lot snow piles from our Pre-Thanksgiving lake effect event that have survived the torches here. Here's BGM's take on tonight. Hoping for that multi-lake connection. It can be a beautiful thing across Northern Onondaga..

Around 06z, the 925mb trough passes just east of Lake Ontario and
the winds start to become slightly more west-northwesterly.  This
should start to push the band slight to the south and west leading
to lake effect accumulations across southern Oneida, Madison,
and Onondaga counties. At this point, BUFkit soundings show
quite a bit of lift in the DGZ and this is matched fairly well
with plenty of surface convergence and modest theta-e lapse
rates reaching into the Souther Tier. The multi-lake influence
becomes stronger as the fetch over the waters lengthens at this
point. Lake effect snow should likely push well inland just
before day break although accumulations look to be less than
half an inch south of the Thruway. The forecast challenge is
that the band looks to be fairly will supported dynamically and
should have the potential to produce inch to inch and a half an
hour rates overnight. Its just a question of how long does the
band setup over any given area.

[BuffaloWeather]

@DeltaT13 Its snowing here with some flakes, going to tailgate with that barstool sports guy in a bit!

[wolfie09]

8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

I'm surprised we STILL have some parking lot snow piles from our Pre-Thanksgiving lake effect event that have survived the torches here. Here's BGM's take on tonight. Hoping for that multi-lake connection. It can be a beautiful thing across Northern Onondaga..

Around 06z, the 925mb trough passes just east of Lake Ontario and
the winds start to become slightly more west-northwesterly.  This
should start to push the band slight to the south and west leading
to lake effect accumulations across southern Oneida, Madison,
and Onondaga counties. At this point, BUFkit soundings show
quite a bit of lift in the DGZ and this is matched fairly well
with plenty of surface convergence and modest theta-e lapse
rates reaching into the Souther Tier. The multi-lake influence
becomes stronger as the fetch over the waters lengthens at this
point. Lake effect snow should likely push well inland just
before day break although accumulations look to be less than
half an inch south of the Thruway. The forecast challenge is
that the band looks to be fairly will supported dynamically and
should have the potential to produce inch to inch and a half an
hour rates overnight. Its just a question of how long does the
band setup over any given area.

Was just coming to post this..

Here is Kbuf which seems to be going farther north which  probably explains why northern Cayuga has no headlines..

In regards to pcpn...the widespread rain showers ahead of/near the
sfc front will completely move out of the FA by early evening. During
this process...there will be a transition to lake driven pcpn that
will initially start as a mix of rain and snow. The lake effect will
be focused on areas east of both lakes. As we push into the night
and the cold air deepens to the tune of -12c at H85...the pcpn will
change over to accumulating lake snows. A general 2 to 4 inch
snowfall will be found east of both lakes...with areas near and just
east of the Chautauqua ridge and near the Tug Hill as being sites
with the highest amounts.

On Tuesday...fairly well aligned 280-290 flow will direct lake snows
at the Srn Tier and across OSwego county/Srn Tug. Several more
inches of snow will fall over the latter with an inch or two in the
Srn Tier. Otherwise...it will be brisk and cold Tuesday with temps
struggling to reach the freezing mark. Most areas will stay in the
20s. West winds gusting to 25 mph will generally keep wind chill
values in the teens.

The lake snows will persists east of the lakes Tuesday night. A lack
of moisture in the DGZ will limit snowfall...although pops will
remain relatively high

[TugHillMatt]

8 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Was just coming to post this..

Here is Kbuf which seems to be going farther north which  probably explains why northern Cayuga has no headlines..

In regards to pcpn...the widespread rain showers ahead of/near the
sfc front will completely move out of the FA by early evening. During
this process...there will be a transition to lake driven pcpn that
will initially start as a mix of rain and snow. The lake effect will
be focused on areas east of both lakes. As we push into the night
and the cold air deepens to the tune of -12c at H85...the pcpn will
change over to accumulating lake snows. A general 2 to 4 inch
snowfall will be found east of both lakes...with areas near and just
east of the Chautauqua ridge and near the Tug Hill as being sites
with the highest amounts.

On Tuesday...fairly well aligned 280-290 flow will direct lake snows
at the Srn Tier and across OSwego county/Srn Tug. Several more
inches of snow will fall over the latter with an inch or two in the
Srn Tier. Otherwise...it will be brisk and cold Tuesday with temps
struggling to reach the freezing mark. Most areas will stay in the
20s. West winds gusting to 25 mph will generally keep wind chill
values in the teens.

The lake snows will persists east of the lakes Tuesday night. A lack
of moisture in the DGZ will limit snowfall...although pops will
remain relatively high

Usually BUF is more aggressive with snowfall for the WNW flow areas...but this time BGM is. Can't they both ever agree?!? lol

[TugHillMatt]

Looks like they're putting the Bville/Lysander area (in horribly pixelated map) in the 4 to 8 inch category...even more than Northern Oneida.

[Ericjcrash]

8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Looks like they're putting the Bville/Lysander area (in horribly pixelated map) in the 4 to 8 inch category...even more than Northern Oneida.

Lol at that snowmap product. I think the NWS needs to re-evaluate again. 

[BuffaloWeather]

We’re in gravel lot @DeltaT13across street  from car wash