BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 3 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Obviously I have mentioned that they "low ball" the small amounts.. This was called a trace.. Obviously not a big snowfall but also not a trace lol But those are the"official" numbers . The official observers near me do the same thing. They also miss some days measuring in a winter with lots of snowfalls. I keep a running total in my signature to get a more accurate total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Just now, wolfie09 said: Obviously I have mention they "low ball" the small amounts.. This was called a trace.. Obviously not a big snowfall but also not a trace lol But those are the"official" numbers . Exactly. That's what I'm saying. I know you have posted pics already this year with well over a trace of snowfall. What you have seen is more than a whole bunch of others on here this season. That looks like 1.5 to 2 inches of snowfall just in that pic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 Looks like @lakeeffectkid383and me will see highest winds tonight, just started gusting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Somebody wake Delta up so he can go wind chasing... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 @DeltaT13 Would still like to meet up for a beer you tailgating? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Delta at the top of the stands while everybody else is watching the game: 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 The Stupid Sizzle did it. Already up to like 50 degrees while everybody else is almost 5 to 10 degrees cooler. So that will ring in as two consecutively much warmer days. Never fails. On another note... mid 50s gusts in Dunkirk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 Just had a gust above 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 41 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Somebody wake Delta up so he can go wind chasing... Why am I getting dragged into this. Haha. This “wind event” is pretty borderline at this point. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 42 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: @DeltaT13 Would still like to meet up for a beer you tailgating? We can definitely try. Depends when I get in and what lot. I’ll message you on fb Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Obviously I have mentioned that they "low ball" the small amounts.. This was called a trace.. Obviously not a big snowfall but also not a trace lol But those are the"official" numbers . Noticed this with Lowville station too. They have like 1.5 to date right now. I've been here since before Thanksgviing and on my snowboard i've measured 5.9 so far. This is what I have 11/15- .8 11/19 .3 11/22 .5 11/26 1 11/28-29 1.7 11/29-30 .8 12/4 -.8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Gotta say I’m pleasantly surprised this morning with the end of the runs from the GFS 00z and 06z…both strongly show a switch to what appears colder air as we head towards Christmas week. In fact, and yes I get it’s a shit ton of hours out, but you see a low near the desert SW that begins to head northeast. This track is more typical of what we would see in a Nina and one that can usually give our CWA a good snowstorm. It also doesn’t hurt the MJO is rounding the bend towards 7-8by that time so this is definitely something to watch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 8 hours ago, wolfie09 said: Obviously I have mentioned that they "low ball" the small amounts.. This was called a trace.. Obviously not a big snowfall but also not a trace lol But those are the"official" numbers . Rochester does the opposite. That would be 3”. Seriously 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Gotta say I’m pleasantly surprised this morning with the end of the runs from the GFS 00z and 06z…both strongly show a switch to what appears colder air as we head towards Christmas week. In fact, and yes I get it’s a shit ton of hours out, but you see a low near the desert SW that begins to head northeast. This track is more typical of what we would see in a Nina and one that can usually give our CWA a good snowstorm. It also doesn’t hurt the MJO is rounding the bend towards 7-8by that time so this is definitely something to watch And the warmth appears more transient. Obviously, we’re in for a couple rough weeks. But maybe not as rough as first thought? BTW: the short term lake effect looks like more of a Pulaski/ Tug event- as we both expected. Good luck Wolfie! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 17 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: And the warmth appears more transient. Obviously, we’re in for a couple rough weeks. But maybe not as rough as first thought? BTW: the short term lake effect looks like more of a Pulaski/ Tug event- as we both expected. Good luck Wolfie! Yes it does appear more up and down, not a straight torch for the next ten days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 34 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: And the warmth appears more transient. Obviously, we’re in for a couple rough weeks. But maybe not as rough as first thought? BTW: the short term lake effect looks like more of a Pulaski/ Tug event- as we both expected. Good luck Wolfie! Most recent short term runs seem to suggest maybe more oscillating bands spreading the wealth for this area. Rap is farther south as well. We shall see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 55 MPH was highest gust so far, Hamburg reporting 51 must have been the one I had last night. ...New York... ...Allegany County... Alfred 45 MPH 0805 PM 12/05 CWOP Wellsville Airport 40 MPH 1020 PM 12/05 ASOS ...Cattaraugus County... Delevan 46 MPH 1025 PM 12/05 NYSM Olean 40 MPH 1035 PM 12/05 NYSM ...Chautauqua County... Fredonia 55 MPH 1130 PM 12/05 NYSM Dunkirk Airport 53 MPH 1153 PM 12/05 ASOS Forestville 47 MPH 1238 AM 12/06 CWOP ...Erie County... Blasdell 53 MPH 0145 AM 12/06 CWOP Hamburg 51 MPH 0156 AM 12/06 WXFLOW East Aurora 45 MPH 1215 AM 12/06 NYSM Buffalo Airport 44 MPH 0213 AM 12/06 ASOS Brant 41 MPH 1205 AM 12/06 NYSM ...Jefferson County... Tylersville 43 MPH 0316 AM 12/06 CWOP ...Lewis County... Harrisburg 43 MPH 0305 AM 12/06 NYSM ...Livingston County... Dansville Airport 43 MPH 1010 PM 12/05 ASOS ...Niagara County... Pendleton 41 MPH 0232 AM 12/06 CWOP ...Ontario County... South Bristol 54 MPH 0830 PM 12/05 NYSM Clifton Springs 41 MPH 1115 PM 12/05 NYSM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 51 degrees out right now, wish it would stay this warm for the game tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 Looks good wolf 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 KSYR seems to be stuck in low 50s (11C) so it looks like 60 might not be attainable after all. 49 right now at my house with light rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 The NAMS seem to be coming back around to a weak wave moving through on Wednesday now. Interesting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 It definitely will be cold enough to keep any lake effect snows going with H850 temperatures down in the -12C/-13C range Tuesday morning. However, there is concern with residence time in any given location and also how intense will the lake effect snow be as drier air works in across the Lower Lakes from the west. Off lake Erie, lake effect snows will likely be muted the most due to the shorter fetch (mean 270-280 flow) and the above mentioned drier air working in from the west Tuesday morning. Still could be some minor accumulations (an inch or so) but for the most part not expecting anything of significance through midday. Tuesday afternoon/evening, a shortwave approaching from the west will back flow to 250-260. Added moisture and now the longer fetch of the lake coming into play may lead to a brief uptick in activity or a band forming. If this comes to fruition, the band would impact N. Chautauqua, S. Erie, and to a lesser extent western Wyoming county. Could see some localized areas that potentially could receive 1 to 2 inch from the band as we head into and through the evening hours. Off Lake Ontario, a bit of a different story will unfold with 270- 280 flow making good use of the longer fetch and upstream connections. Still drier air working in will hinder lake snows keeping them for the most part in check and below warning criteria. Guidance suggest that there will be a LES band ESE of the Lake which could produce several inches across far northern Cayuga and into Oswego counties through midday Tuesday. Winds then quickly shift to more of a 250-260 direction Tuesday afternoon. This will then shift LES back north across the Tug Hill and the southern Half of Jefferson County where a couple inches will be possible into Tuesday evening. Due to residence time issues and the above mentioned limitations have sided with a Winter Weather Advisory. Localized snowfall totals of 4-8 inches seems reasonable in the most persistent snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 39 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: KSYR seems to be stuck in low 50s (11C) so it looks like 60 might not be attainable after all. 49 right now at my house with light rain. I'm sure it will make the 5 degree jump right before the cold front comes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 39 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: The NAMS seem to be coming back around to a weak wave moving through on Wednesday now. Interesting... No surprise IMO. I really don't know why the mid range always loses systems just to come back within 72-84 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 4 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said: No surprise IMO. I really don't know why the mid range always loses systems just to come back within 72-84 The NAM tends to be too far NW so I'm not sure if it'll be enough for us to get much. On Saturday, I called for 1 to 2 inches for mid week and am sticking to that call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 6, 2021 Author Share Posted December 6, 2021 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I'm sure it will make the 5 degree jump right before the cold front comes through. Next Thursday is the day it hits 60 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Next Thursday is the day it hits 60 Break out the swimming trunks and slip and slides. Make sure to get some good leg shots as you go down the slip and slide runway. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Sizzlecuse...per usual, on par with Long Island as the warmest in the state today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 32 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Sizzlecuse...per usual, on par with Long Island as the warmest in the state today. Up to 57 at KSYR - 60 here we come! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 6, 2021 Share Posted December 6, 2021 Just now, CNY_WX said: Up to 57 at KSYR - 60 here we come! I told you...it NEVER fails here!!!!!!!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now