Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

 

Hasn't this become the "new norm" as well? A "north trend" never works out for us. It either doesn't happen, or it exists in that it trends north of us.

[cny rider]

25 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Well said. And with Covid dramatically changing how the world does business and speeding up the transition to e-commerce and telecommuting, the Upstate region stands to benefit significantly and I could definitely see many areas of Upstate transitioning to a knowledge-based economy going forward given our relatively low cost of living along with the other factors you mentioned. 

We’ll see how this plays out in the rural areas.

My county (Otsego) just showed another decline in population in the 2020 census.  That’s two decades in a row now.

Our schools have declining enrollment.  Businesses struggle to survive and in particular the last 2 years, many haven’t.

We can’t find enough workers, skilled and unskilled alike, to support our health care facilities, schools, and businesses.

Something has got to change or it’s going to be tumbleweeds here soon.

 

[Ericjcrash]

33 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Hasn't this become the "new norm" as well? A "north trend" never works out for us. It either doesn't happen, or it exists in that it trends north of us.

Nah, it happens. Was fringed on the north side last December models showing 4-8" within 24 hours, ended up with over 30". NYC posters will tell you it's still real. Yeah this threat is pretty much dead in the water but I wouldn't be surprised if it corrects N over the next 48h, in this case that would benefit our friends to the South and East. Ridge is often underdone.

[Thinksnow18]

High wind watch dropped to a wind advisory for late tonight and tomorrow 

[BuffaloWeather]

Just now, Thinksnow18 said:

High wind watch dropped to a wind advisory for late tonight and tomorrow 

Good, I want Josh Allen to sling it all over the Pats.

[BuffaloWeather]

5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

High wind watch dropped to a wind advisory for late tonight and tomorrow 

Looks like its still up for southern erie?

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected
  tonight. Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
  expected Monday afternoon and early evening.

[BuffaloWeather]

Hawaii so cool

[TugHillMatt]

3 hours ago, DeltaT13 said:

And for 95% of the population this is phenomenal news.  Nearly all people hate winter and one part of the mass exodus from this state has certainly been the long relentless winters (taxes being the primary driver).  Something tells me that there may be a resurgence into upstate in the next decade as water woes, wildfires, rising sea levels, and catastrophic hurricanes force people back into a more stable area.  Add on a relatively reasonable housing market and it starts looking pretty appealing.  Adding 5-10 degrees into our area makes the summers a little hotter, but still manageable while shrinking the winters from 6 months of brutal cold and snow to about 3. It’s going to suck for us winter lovers but overall this is a  win for the grand majority of the Northeast. Climate change will always have winners and losers. And sadly, I think most people see this as a vast improvement going forward. I know many of my coworkers mention how winters are getting a lot easier over the past decade or so. 

 

2 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Local met just posted about this...and of course, 98% of the comments are like, "Yaaaay! Yippy!"

Gag. Throwing up in mouth. If you hate snow so much, move to the flipping south. 

[TugHillMatt]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Hawaii so cool

One of my ignorant FB friends posted last night that "Hawaii got 12" of snow and I guess that'll be one place I'm not moving to."

LOL .... look at elevation, dearie....

[Syrmax]

3 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

One of my ignorant FB friends posted last night that "Hawaii got 12" of snow and I guess that'll be one place I'm not moving to."

LOL .... look at elevation, dearie....

Yes, heard a similar comment.  I mentioned it's only the top of the volcano basically and that it happens every few years.  Confused but slowly comprehending face in response...

[PerintonMan]

3 hours ago, rochesterdave said:

And the summers aren’t getting unbearable. Very few days over 90. 
I agree, most see this as a win. 
I couldn’t live in Florida or even NC. 4 months of temps in the mid 90’s? No thanks! 
Might be a good time to invest in real estate in NY. 

I feel absolutely #blessed to have bought a house here a few years ago. This is going to be a popular area to live as the South becomes increasingly unlivable for a lot of people, and this area becomes more palatable (to the chagrin of snow lovers like us).

[PerintonMan]

3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Although our winters are getting milder, we still get the relentless cloud cover from the Great Lakes. I know multiple families that are moving OUT of the area and this is one thing every one of them has mentioned: the cloudiness. So now while we are milder, I find it even more depressing because there is a lack of snow to brighten up stick season and the brown-ness. That's why I call our winters "eternal November." 40s, 40s, rain, snow showers, melt the next day...maybe a week or two of consistent winter weather... 40s...WIND....

But, the cloud cover has a huge effect on people and I think is a large player on how long people can last living in an area. The lack of Vitamin D really gets to people. People may not like snow, but the extra brightness it can provide makes a difference. 

I feel this strongly.

The constant gray/brown from November through March wears on you, and not enough white lately to lighten it up. Not sure how much that affects people moving in/out though.

At least people moving in probably only look at the temperature and snowfall numbers and don't really consider the constant overcast.

[TugHillMatt]

5 minutes ago, PerintonMan said:

I feel this strongly.

The constant gray/brown from November through March wears on you, and not enough white lately to lighten it up. Not sure how much that affects people moving in/out though.

At least people moving in probably only look at the temperature and snowfall numbers and don't really consider the constant overcast.

Yeah, many of the people who talk about it are those who have lived here for years and years. It's actually a pretty common topic of discussion and joking around about our local climate. In fact, several different times this week, I was involved in discussions where others were joking/bantering about whether we would see an hour or two of sun the next day. Snow is a HUGE mood stabilizer for me (using many different senses) which is partially why I am such a huge snowpack guy.

[TugHillMatt]

Checked out the radar and it looked like returns were showing up over Rochester. So...checked out webcams and it looks like it's snowing there. @rochesterdave, look out your window!

[rochesterdave]

3 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Yep. Any model we can trust ?

ICON

[CNY_WX]

46 minutes ago, Syrmax said:

Yes, heard a similar comment.  I mentioned it's only the top of the volcano basically and that it happens every few years.  Confused but slowly comprehending face in response...

The summit of Mauna Loa and Mauna Kea are above 13,000 ft., basically 600 mb level. I’m not sure where the snow line is but I’d guess around 10k ft.

[rochesterdave]

I kid. But not really. I’ve found the ICON to be relatively accurate. It doesn’t show these ridiculous scenarios at 120 hours. Here we are 48 hours ago- basically what the GFS is now showing after toying with a high impact event for 7 runs. And I know it doesn’t have the verification scores of GFS and EURO

[Ericjcrash]

5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I kid. But not really. I’ve found the ICON to be relatively accurate. It doesn’t show these ridiculous scenarios at 120 hours. Here we are 48 hours ago- basically what the GFS is now showing after toying with a high impact event for 7 runs. And I know it doesn’t have the verification scores of GFS and EURO

Yeah, it rarely has an extreme solution. Its ptype algorithms seem odd on tt but otherwise it's solid. 

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Looks like its still up for southern erie?

...HIGH WIND WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO
7 PM EST MONDAY...

* WHAT...South winds 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 65 mph expected
  tonight. Southwest winds 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 55 mph
  expected Monday afternoon and early evening.

Warning is for the down slope wind event tonight.  Winds will likely be higher on this event than for the SW wind even with the cold front passage on Monday.  Warning would likely downgrade to an advisory as well after the wind change.  Nice blurb from BUF AFD on tonight's event...

The strong wind potential will come in two phases. First, a strong southerly low level jet will cross the region tonight, setting the stage for strong downslope winds. The low level jet reaches the western Southern Tier by this evening, with 60-70 knots just above the ridge tops. Forecast soundings suggest a stable layer near the top of the terrain barrier with a strong low level inversion in place. This will set the stage for a downslope wind event, with stable flow accelerating down the lee slopes of the Chautauqua Ridge. The magnitude of the low level jet and thermal structure suggest a good potential for gusts to near 65 mph near the Lake Erie shore and northward facing slopes of western Chautauqua and southern Erie counties.

 

As cool as a snow game would be I'll take passing snow showers and a stiff wind over the blizzard conditions that were showing as a possibility a few days ago.  

[Ericjcrash]

25 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Warning is for the down slope wind event tonight.  Winds will likely be higher on this event than for the SW wind even with the cold front passage on Monday.  Warning would likely downgrade to an advisory as well after the wind change.  Nice blurb from BUF AFD on tonight's event...

The strong wind potential will come in two phases. First, a strong southerly low level jet will cross the region tonight, setting the stage for strong downslope winds. The low level jet reaches the western Southern Tier by this evening, with 60-70 knots just above the ridge tops. Forecast soundings suggest a stable layer near the top of the terrain barrier with a strong low level inversion in place. This will set the stage for a downslope wind event, with stable flow accelerating down the lee slopes of the Chautauqua Ridge. The magnitude of the low level jet and thermal structure suggest a good potential for gusts to near 65 mph near the Lake Erie shore and northward facing slopes of western Chautauqua and southern Erie counties.

 

As cool as a snow game would be I'll take passing snow showers and a stiff wind over the blizzard conditions that were showing as a possibility a few days ago.  

Nonsense. I root against the Bills and Pats (fan of the pathetic Jets) but full out Blizzard conditions would be epic and would be better handled by Allen IMO

[TugHillMatt]

 Wake me up in April when winter comes for a week.

[wolfie09]

[TugHillMatt]

36 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

I highly doubt anywhere south of a Fair Haven - Hinmansville/S. Fulton/Phoenix - Central Square line gets more than an inch...especially if winds are strong.

[BuffaloWeather]

@josh_4184 has to be doing pretty well today, 6"+ today and then lake effect? What are you up to so far on the year?

[BGM Blizzard]

6 hours ago, cny rider said:

We’ll see how this plays out in the rural areas.

My county (Otsego) just showed another decline in population in the 2020 census.  That’s two decades in a row now.

Our schools have declining enrollment.  Businesses struggle to survive and in particular the last 2 years, many haven’t.

We can’t find enough workers, skilled and unskilled alike, to support our health care facilities, schools, and businesses.

Something has got to change or it’s going to be tumbleweeds here soon.

 

Yeah unfortunately some of the more rural parts of the state will probably continue to lag behind due to lack of utilities, high speed internet etc.

[BuffaloWeather]

 

[BuffaloWeather]

Found the cold, its over the Nordic countries.

[josh_4184]

35 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

@josh_4184 has to be doing pretty well today, 6"+ today and then lake effect? What are you up to so far on the year?

Picked up about 9" so far, looking like may another 1-3" tonight then 6-10" les on the back end. Not to shabby as models earlier were showing more mix/frz.

Im pushing 50" for the season so far, 2/3rds of last years total lol. Considering my average is around  160" in my area.  Def a great start to the season. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Wow that's better than I thought. You should pick up another foot with the next 2 rounds of LES too. Going to eclipse your total last year by mid December, not too shabby! As we know La Ninas favor the areas further to the NW, El Ninos favor areas to the SW. The SE ridge really hurts the east coast during Nina years.