Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[wolfie09]

[BGM Blizzard]

The energy for the mid week storm is still over the Pacific right now so expect alot of model volatility unfortunately. Giving it til early Monday before writing it off but it doesn't look good.

[Ericjcrash]

3 minutes ago, BGM Blizzard said:

The energy for the mid week storm is still over the Pacific right now so expect alot of model volatility unfortunately. Giving it til early Monday before writing it off but it doesn't look good.

It doesn't, but I'd rather have it SE 

[Ericjcrash]

Also, light snow intermittently but no radar so idk lol 

[TugHillMatt]

31 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

It doesn't, but I'd rather have it SE 

Good point. With the SE Ridge, there is only so far south it can go...It can certainly come farther north, but the fast Pacific flow may limit that movement as well. I am thinking tracks very similar to what happened last year (with PA getting the goods) are a very good possibility with a similar flow to last winter.

[Ericjcrash]

GFS ticked NW 

[TugHillMatt]

Flurries flittering about in the wind as that lake effect band refuses to move south. 3rd consecutive night of trace amounts? Better hurry up, @rochesterdave... we're going to be way ahead of you with all these traces and dustings.. 

Although not getting heavy snow the past couple weeks, the Tug region has been wintry looking most of the time with reoccurring "couple inch" snowfalls and avoiding the sizzle to the south.  The snowcover guy inside of me is jealous.

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Headed out to no mans land to do the annual Christmas tree chop a rooni!  Great drive out 20A watching some lake cloud bands roll along.  Tree farm was great as always, best trees are the nice hike to the upper hill.  Do this the first Saturday in December every year… been a long time since we had to hike in the snow and this is up on a hill in Wyoming County.  Fell like our winters now are compressed to late December through late February.

[BuffaloWeather]

[TugHillMatt]

Coming to a few neighborhoods near you this winter...I've made it out alive multiple times this week.

[BuffaloWeather]

32 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

Coming to a few neighborhoods near you this winter...I've made it out alive multiple times this week.

Might reopen my pool early this year.

 

[Thinksnow18]

How has it gotten this bad? We have become the mid-Atlantic with storm tracks and cold air. Our cold is transient, and the storm track now seems to keep our CWA on the warmer side of most systems. We no longer have past climo to look at as the new era of climo has taken over. We will see snow this year, but I’m no longer expecting weeks of winter, more like a few days every couple weeks surrounded by milder air and rain. The new norm.

[Buffalo Bumble]

7 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Might reopen my pool early this year.

 

Yeah, except for a couple quick hitting cool periods it’s looking quite mild as far as they eye can see on modeling. Was hoping for a turn in time for Christmas but that’s looking less likely IMO. 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo Bumble said:

Yeah, except for a couple quick hitting cool periods it’s looking quite mild as far as they eye can see on modeling. Was hoping for a turn in time for Christmas but that’s looking less likely IMO. 

The MJO is going into the favorable phases by Christmas. You will have your shots of greatness.

[rochesterdave]

[rochesterdave]

They didn’t post well. The point is that none of the ensembles look good for Weds . The GFS operational is the only  one showing jack. Toss it. 

[DeltaT13]

2 hours ago, Thinksnow18 said:

How has it gotten this bad? We have become the mid-Atlantic with storm tracks and cold air. Our cold is transient, and the storm track now seems to keep our CWA on the warmer side of most systems. We no longer have past climo to look at as the new era of climo has taken over. We will see snow this year, but I’m no longer expecting weeks of winter, more like a few days every couple weeks surrounded by milder air and rain. The new norm.

And for 95% of the population this is phenomenal news.  Nearly all people hate winter and one part of the mass exodus from this state has certainly been the long relentless winters (taxes being the primary driver).  Something tells me that there may be a resurgence into upstate in the next decade as water woes, wildfires, rising sea levels, and catastrophic hurricanes force people back into a more stable area.  Add on a relatively reasonable housing market and it starts looking pretty appealing.  Adding 5-10 degrees into our area makes the summers a little hotter, but still manageable while shrinking the winters from 6 months of brutal cold and snow to about 3. It’s going to suck for us winter lovers but overall this is a  win for the grand majority of the Northeast. Climate change will always have winners and losers. And sadly, I think most people see this as a vast improvement going forward. I know many of my coworkers mention how winters are getting a lot easier over the past decade or so. 

[rochesterdave]

13 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

And for 95% of the population this is phenomenal news.  Nearly all people hate winter and one part of the mass exodus from this state has certainly been the long relentless winters (taxes being the primary driver).  Something tells me that there may be a resurgence into upstate in the next decade as water woes, wildfires, rising sea levels, and catastrophic hurricanes force people back into a more stable area.  Add on a relatively reasonable housing market and it starts looking pretty appealing.  Adding 5-10 degrees into our area makes the summers a little hotter, but still manageable while shrinking the winters from 6 months of brutal cold and snow to about 3. It’s going to suck for us winter lovers but overall this is a  win for the grand majority of the Northeast. Climate change will always have winners and losers. And sadly, I think most people see this as a vast improvement going forward. I know many of my coworkers mention how winters are getting a lot easier over the past decade or so. 

And the summers aren’t getting unbearable. Very few days over 90. 
I agree, most see this as a win. 
I couldn’t live in Florida or even NC. 4 months of temps in the mid 90’s? No thanks! 
Might be a good time to invest in real estate in NY. 

[rochesterdave]

This current storm ended up a lot closer than anyone thought. Our friends in ‘cottage country’ will be cashing in. 

[Thinksnow18]

20 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

And for 95% of the population this is phenomenal news.  Nearly all people hate winter and one part of the mass exodus from this state has certainly been the long relentless winters (taxes being the primary driver).  Something tells me that there may be a resurgence into upstate in the next decade as water woes, wildfires, rising sea levels, and catastrophic hurricanes force people back into a more stable area.  Add on a relatively reasonable housing market and it starts looking pretty appealing.  Adding 5-10 degrees into our area makes the summers a little hotter, but still manageable while shrinking the winters from 6 months of brutal cold and snow to about 3. It’s going to suck for us winter lovers but overall this is a  win for the grand majority of the Northeast. Climate change will always have winners and losers. And sadly, I think most people see this as a vast improvement going forward. I know many of my coworkers mention how winters are getting a lot easier over the past decade or so. 

Well I for one would NOT care for an influx of population. One of the the appeals to me is MOST of our population is Buffalo born and bred or ties to the region. IF an influx of people from other parts of the country were to take place you can guarantee three things…housing prices will increase substantially overtime as new developments would need to be built to keep up with a booming population and therefore increasing prices on homes…the infrastructure would begin to take a beating and our paltry (in comparison) traffic “jams” would actually become a major issue…there is quite a bit of seasonal tourism here that would go away (skiing, possibly fishing and hunting as more land becomes unavailable) and if you want to press a 4th reason taxes would also increase to cover the levies on increase population and infrastructure rebuilding. Fir those reasons I hope WNY stays just like it is. Every part of this country has issues that make it undesirable and if taxes are ours I’m ok with that.

[Thinksnow18]

5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

And the summers aren’t getting unbearable. Very few days over 90. 
I agree, most see this as a win. 
I couldn’t live in Florida or even NC. 4 months of temps in the mid 90’s? No thanks! 
Might be a good time to invest in real estate in NY. 

Trust me Dave my wife, myself and the kids just traversed the east driving to Florida over Thanksgiving. Traffic sucked after N. Carolina, there’s a litter of broken down vehicles all over S.C., GA, and Florida. There are also a ton of tourists and transplants from all over the country and other neighboring countrys that make it more of a melting pot than anything. It doesn’t feel homey at all. Neighborhoods in Florida are built in months and houses aren’t built to suit they’re just cookie cutter and sold as is. Their education system is one of the worst in the country and healthcare not far behind. No state tax a plus but speaking to my Moms husband (nice guy) he stated they had 66 days of 89 degrees or higher between July and August. Keep it

[TugHillMatt]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

The MJO is going into the favorable phases by Christmas. You will have your shots of greatness.

It takes time for the atmosphere to respond. I don't think it will be soon enough for Christmas.

12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

And the summers aren’t getting unbearable. Very few days over 90. 
I agree, most see this as a win. 
I couldn’t live in Florida or even NC. 4 months of temps in the mid 90’s? No thanks! 
Might be a good time to invest in real estate in NY. 

They are in Sizzlecuse. 20 to 30 days a summer in the 90s seems to be the new norm. It is miserable.

8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Well I for one would NOT care for an influx of population. One of the the appeals to me is MOST of our population is Buffalo born and bred or ties to the region. IF an influx of people from other parts of the country were to take place you can guarantee three things…housing prices will increase substantially overtime as new developments would need to be built to keep up with a booming population and therefore increasing prices on homes…the infrastructure would begin to take a beating and our paltry (in comparison) traffic “jams” would actually become a major issue…there is quite a bit of seasonal tourism here that would go away (skiing, possibly fishing and hunting as more land becomes unavailable) and if you want to press a 4th reason taxes would also increase to cover the levies on increase population and infrastructure rebuilding. Fir those reasons I hope WNY stays just like it is. Every part of this country has issues that make it undesirable and if taxes are ours I’m ok with that.

Already happening in the 'Cuse. All the Long Islanders are moving out here and all of these things are happening.

[DeltaT13]

9 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Well I for one would NOT care for an influx of population. One of the the appeals to me is MOST of our population is Buffalo born and bred or ties to the region. IF an influx of people from other parts of the country were to take place you can guarantee three things…housing prices will increase substantially overtime as new developments would need to be built to keep up with a booming population and therefore increasing prices on homes…the infrastructure would begin to take a beating and our paltry (in comparison) traffic “jams” would actually become a major issue…there is quite a bit of seasonal tourism here that would go away (skiing, possibly fishing and hunting as more land becomes unavailable) and if you want to press a 4th reason taxes would also increase to cover the levies on increase population and infrastructure rebuilding. Fir those reasons I hope WNY stays just like it is. Every part of this country has issues that make it undesirable and if taxes are ours I’m ok with that.

Rochester is the poorest city in America for its size. I’d rather us not stay just how we are. This city is struggling big time. Bring in some new bodies and cash please.  We have no right to turn anyone away. Let’s revitalize this area while we still can. Just buy your house or land now before it’s too late. 

[TugHillMatt]

5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Trust me Dave my wife, myself and the kids just traversed the east driving to Florida over Thanksgiving. Traffic sucked after N. Carolina, there’s a litter of broken down vehicles all over S.C., GA, and Florida. There are also a ton of tourists and transplants from all over the country and other neighboring countrys that make it more of a melting pot than anything. It doesn’t feel homey at all. Neighborhoods in Florida are built in months and houses aren’t built to suit they’re just cookie cutter and sold as is. Their education system is one of the worst in the country and healthcare not far behind. No state tax a plus but speaking to my Moms husband (nice guy) he stated they had 66 days of 89 degrees or higher between July and August. Keep it

There's 66 days between July and August? Is that part of the "new norm" these days? 

[Thinksnow18]

19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

There's 66 days between July and August? Is that part of the "new norm" these days? 

I mean he is 73 so maybe a bit of a misspeak but the gist is it’s too damn hot

[rochesterdave]

19 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

It takes time for the atmosphere to respond. I don't think it will be soon enough for Christmas.

They are in Sizzlecuse. 20 to 30 days a summer in the 90s seems to be the new norm. It is miserable.

Already happening in the 'Cuse. All the Long Islanders are moving out here and all of these things are happening.

I think Rochester had a few days above 90. Under 10 anyway. We didn’t have any in August. I’d be surprised if Syracuse was much warmer. 

[TugHillMatt]

Although our winters are getting milder, we still get the relentless cloud cover from the Great Lakes. I know multiple families that are moving OUT of the area and this is one thing every one of them has mentioned: the cloudiness. So now while we are milder, I find it even more depressing because there is a lack of snow to brighten up stick season and the brown-ness. That's why I call our winters "eternal November." 40s, 40s, rain, snow showers, melt the next day...maybe a week or two of consistent winter weather... 40s...WIND....

But, the cloud cover has a huge effect on people and I think is a large player on how long people can last living in an area. The lack of Vitamin D really gets to people. People may not like snow, but the extra brightness it can provide makes a difference. 

[rochesterdave]

23 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

Rochester is the poorest city in America for its size. I’d rather us not stay just how we are. This city is struggling big time. Bring in some new bodies and cash please.  We have no right to turn anyone away. Let’s revitalize this area while we still can. Just buy your house or land now before it’s too late. 

All those bust ass stats are based on Rochester’s tiny metropolitan area. Highest crime, childhood poverty, etc. etc. I think it’s misleading. Outside of the ‘crescent’ Rochester is a pretty good area to live. But you’re right, we shouldn’t be turning people away. We need labor! 

[BuffaloWeather]

I want another winter like 1977 so everyone moves out of Buffalo, its too crowded now.

[TugHillMatt]

5 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

I think Rochester had a few days above 90. Under 10 anyway. We didn’t have any in August. I’d be surprised if Syracuse was much warmer. 

We've averaged around 20 days of 90 degrees or higher the past couple summers. It's awful. Not close enough to the Lake to help moderate the temp.