wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Icon fwiw trended a bit more wintry.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 GEFS individual members Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Well we got our trace for today lol 35° but still sticking to the deck/grass.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 21 minutes ago, Iceresistance said: 6z GEFS Mean Snowfall through 7 Days 12z trending towards the 00z Euro… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Yup, GFS still has it but moving SE of previous runs.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Last 8 runs 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 This just popped in my Facebook feed, I miss good December’s. They are a distant memory. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Yeah the last good December here was 2017-2018.. January is pretty much the only month with some consistency, minus 19/20 lol Can't even go by "average" since each year is so different.. Nov-march 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Not the best LE model but shows a decent lake response.. Unfortunately synoptic system is a swing and a miss, Ggem agrees.. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Euro is pretty weak with some light snow showers... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: This just popped in my Facebook feed, I miss good December’s. They are a distant memory. That forecast busted horribly for the metro. 18-24” call for South Buffalo… we got a big fat nothing burger! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: That forecast busted horribly for the metro. 18-24” call for South Buffalo… we got a big fat nothing burger! Yeah think I had 12" here. Did you see December 2017 LES events? Southtowns had like 70" in a few weeks. Springville had like 125" 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah think I had 12" here. Did you see December 2017 LES events? Southtowns had like 70" in a few weeks. Springville had like 125" At least we have memories… 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: At least we have memories… Yeah GEFS and EPS look warm for at least a week mid month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 14 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah GEFS and EPS look warm for at least a week mid month. Which in turn COULD benefit upstate just in time for the Christmas holiday…I’d take a warmer first half for a bomb second half. Some of KBUF’s largest events have happened at Christmas or the following week…holding out hope Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 minute ago, Thinksnow18 said: Which in turn COULD benefit upstate just in time for the Christmas holiday…I’d take a warmer first half for a bomb second half. Some of KBUF’s largest events have happened at Christmas or the following week…holding out hope Yeah I always try to be optimistic but it looks really bad in long range on all Ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 47 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah think I had 12" here. Did you see December 2017 LES events? Southtowns had like 70" in a few weeks. Springville had like 125" That really was our last good stretch of winter that I can remember. Erie PA also had that monster lake effect dump Christmas week in 2017. And then we went right into January 2018 with a lake effect blizzard in the metro. Scrolling through some pics also seeing Lake Erie frozen as far out as I could see. Oh and Ice Jams on Caz creek. Had two of those that January. Was a “real” winter that year even if most of the snow stayed south of BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Yeah I always try to be optimistic but it looks really bad in long range on all Ensembles. Agreed but we were supposed to have a front loaded winter and a warmer second half…I don’t foretell an entire winter burner as most patterns break down after 4 to 6 weeks. Our time will come…I think… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Temp 5 degrees above forecasted in the mid 40s...shocker, shocker...same thing every flipping day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Quite the Windy day out huh? Lol Getting some added snow/graupel mixture, 35°.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 A westerly flow of colder air from late Monday through Tuesday will set the stage for lake effect snow east of the lakes. Rapidly drying air will greatly limit this potential however, despite the cold airmass. Off Lake Erie, expect a band of snow Monday evening across Southern Erie/Wyoming counties to drift farther south into the Southern Tier overnight, before weakening to light snow showers by Tuesday morning. Accumulations look minor, with a few inches possible across higher terrain. Off Lake Ontario...some upstream connection to Lake Huron may give a little boost to available moisture, but the event still looks relatively weak. Expect a band of snow to develop across the Tug Hill later Monday evening, then drift south into Oswego County by Tuesday morning before weakening by Tuesday afternoon. The Tug Hill Plateau may squeeze out marginal advisory amounts, with minor accumulations for the surrounding lower elevations. Then, later Tuesday night through Wednesday the next system will then affect the region as an upper level longwave trough pivots its axis towards the east coast and ultimately supporting a wave of low pressure to pass by to the south of the region. This wave will then trek northward in the Atlantic along the east coast. Overall, this will likely support a period of snow late Tuesday night through Wednesday night. As the low pulls off the coast of New England Wednesday night, the steadier snows will diminish, however some light lake effect snows south of Lake Ontario will be possible as 850 mb temperatures briefly cool to around -10C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 35 minutes ago, Blue Moon said: That's a good dose of snow! I recall the Dec. 2017 temps being well below normal in the TN Valley. We got a little bit of snow, but most forecasts didn't amount to much. The air was so dry. Sometimes those bitter cold patterns are even worse for snow in the TN Valley. Suppresses everything and sends it south (which is very frustrating!) Oddly we feel the same way about the Tennessee valley receiving snow… 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 These models are so horrible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: These models are so horrible You ready for the whiff to the east on Wednesday? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Or South... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 29 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You ready for the whiff to the east on Wednesday? I was always ready for a miss. I figured it would cut. These models just can’t handle our new patterns. It was explained that global warming wouldn’t be linear; that certain regions and certain seasons would experience worse symptoms of global weather change. It’s just super sad that our regions winters seem to be the canary in the mine. (This idea should probably be expressed in the banter section) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: These models are so horrible Yeah the Wednesday storm is now a Houdini and has all but disappeared only to be replaced with whatever that is…Billikens and billions spent in the satellites, software and algorithms and these models have managed to get worse by the year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 25 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Or South... Jesus that would have us as highs in the 20’s and LES… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 Just goes to show you the amount of variables in a 5 day forecast are almost infinite. I'm surprised the models do as well as they do! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 5, 2021 Share Posted December 5, 2021 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Jesus that would have us as highs in the 20’s and LES… Well.... if you mean "us" as in the "toothless people" (as Syrmax puts it) then I would agree....the rest of us will sit and look at traces sitting on rooftops that melt in the sun in a couple minutes... My prediction is much of us will get an inch or two from either a dying wave or from the outskirts of low pressure whiffing to the east. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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