wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Due to the strong dynamics of this system, a convective line of showers may accompany the cold front as it tracks east of the region. There could be an enhanced wind threat if a line forms. A High Wind Watch is in effect for Chautauqua (7PM Sun-9PM Mon), Erie, Niagara, Ontario, and Genesee (8AM Mon-8PM Mon) Counties. Wind gusts of greater than 58 mph are possible during these time windows. A lesser magnitude of wind gusts are expected east of this region and further expansion of the watch or advisories may be warranted. Also, gusty winds will continue through Monday evening Along with the high winds, temperatures will be falling fast behind the cold front Monday. Highs near 50 will likely be reached in the morning across western NY and towards afternoon east of Lake Ontario. Lake effect snow showers will begin east of the Lakes as winds go from southwest to west across the region. Moisture will be decreasing Monday evening and equilibrium levels are progged to be near 5-8k east of Lake Erie and closer to 10k east of Lake Ontario. While winds will likely peak Monday afternoon, it will still be windy going into Monday evening so the combination of winds and snow showers will produce visibility restrictions on some areas. Best chance for snow showers will be across the Southern Tier and Tug Hill region Monday afternoon-Monday night. At this time, minor accumulations expected. Temperatures will fall to the low to mid 20s Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 All this wind...is it March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 They’re really hugging the GFS on this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: All this wind...is it March? Fall and Spring are the big wind seasons. The transitional periods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 There was a time that this would’ve excited me. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Quite a few of those get the job done here, first legitimate threat IMO 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Pretty random hodgepodge. It’s a 120 storm, I’d surely like to see more consistency but fun to watch. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 5 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: All the models suck. ::clearing throat:: not ALL the models… 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Someone check me on these! From January 01 2011 - Present... the BUF office has issued a total of 7 blizzard warning "events" for the CWA (includes events east of lake ontario as well). I am missing one of the events! 1. January 2014 / Lake Effect / Impacted most of WNY, First Blizzard Warning for BUF Metro since 1993 / Ontario conditions verified but I don't believe an official blizzard warning was ever lifted for east of Onatrio. 2. March 2014 / Synoptic / Impacted most of upstate NY winds coming of Lake Ontario / Didn't really verify if I recall correctly. 3. 4. January 2018 / Lake Effect & Wind Driven / LOVE THIS STORM! / Busted forecast, warning was issued to late, deadly thruway pile up resulted, lake band formed and completely dissipated in less than 6 hours! I believe Ontario had a more foretasted band setup. 5. January 2019 / Lake Effect / Impacted both WNY and Tug 6. February 2019 / Lake Effect / Impacted just areas east of Lake Ontario 7. Feb 2020 / Lake Effect / Impacted around Watertown and well South of Buffalo. Believe there was blizzards warnings eventually off both lakes for this, don't believe Northern Erie was included however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 19 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Someone check me on these! From January 01 2011 - Present... the BUF office has issued a total of 7 blizzard warning "events" for the CWA (includes events east of lake ontario as well). I am missing one of the events! 1. January 2014 / Lake Effect / Impacted most of WNY, First Blizzard Warning for BUF Metro since 1993 / Ontario conditions verified but I don't believe an official blizzard warning was ever lifted for east of Onatrio. 2. March 2014 / Synoptic / Impacted most of upstate NY winds coming of Lake Ontario / Didn't really verify if I recall correctly. 3. 4. January 2018 / Lake Effect & Wind Driven / LOVE THIS STORM! / Busted forecast, warning was issued to late, deadly thruway pile up resulted, lake band formed and completely dissipated in less than 6 hours! I believe Ontario had a more foretasted band setup. 5. January 2019 / Lake Effect / Impacted both WNY and Tug 6. February 2019 / Lake Effect / Impacted just areas east of Lake Ontario 7. Feb 2020 / Lake Effect / Impacted around Watertown and well South of Buffalo. Believe there was blizzards warnings eventually off both lakes for this, don't believe Northern Erie was included however. I think you have the 6 that cover WNY, the other is likely a Tughill special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Well GFS still has it.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 36 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well GFS still has it.. Will be interesting to see the loop with those double lows, but tidbits aint loading. Laying the tracks for the Syracuse guys on this one, choo choo! Awe, who are we kidding, we all know the taint will bust on up in there like usual! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 48 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Will be interesting to see the loop with those double lows, but tidbits aint loading. Laying the tracks for the Syracuse guys on this one, choo choo! Awe, who are we kidding, we all know the taint will bust on up in there like usual! lol...I know you're partially teasing...but I got away from SE Pennsylvania years ago in excitement to leave the bloody taint line...and it's just as bad here...just MORE times because of the increased "wintry" chances here compared to there!!!!!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Hmmm, did they make changes to the Euro? It isn't usually pixelated like this and also seems more specific like a meso model than a general run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 15 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Hmmm, did they make changes to the Euro? It isn't usually pixelated like this and also seems more specific like a meso model than a general run. Ukie is the same Gfs is the only one really amped Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vicarious Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 8 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Someone check me on these! From January 01 2011 - Present... the BUF office has issued a total of 7 blizzard warning "events" for the CWA (includes events east of lake ontario as well). I am missing one of the events! 1. January 2014 / Lake Effect / Impacted most of WNY, First Blizzard Warning for BUF Metro since 1993 / Ontario conditions verified but I don't believe an official blizzard warning was ever lifted for east of Onatrio. 2. March 2014 / Synoptic / Impacted most of upstate NY winds coming of Lake Ontario / Didn't really verify if I recall correctly. 3. 4. January 2018 / Lake Effect & Wind Driven / LOVE THIS STORM! / Busted forecast, warning was issued to late, deadly thruway pile up resulted, lake band formed and completely dissipated in less than 6 hours! I believe Ontario had a more foretasted band setup. 5. January 2019 / Lake Effect / Impacted both WNY and Tug 6. February 2019 / Lake Effect / Impacted just areas east of Lake Ontario 7. Feb 2020 / Lake Effect / Impacted around Watertown and well South of Buffalo. Believe there was blizzards warnings eventually off both lakes for this, don't believe Northern Erie was included however. nov 2014? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 9 minutes ago, Vicarious said: nov 2014? Nope, nearly no wind with that one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Navgem has it. But this is a 25% deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Long range is just a disaster for all of December. SE heights just keep building. I feel comfortable in predicting that this winter will be a dumpster fire. You just can’t lose the first two months and expect to come back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 13 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Long range is just a disaster for all of December. SE heights just keep building. I feel comfortable in predicting that this winter will be a dumpster fire. You just can’t lose the first two months and expect to come back. I’m dreaming of a warm Christmas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 I know it’s the GFS at 384 hours but that ridge covers 85% of the country. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 A toasty mid december Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 Another trace to add to the collection.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 SPOOTS! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 It would be nice to finally have a cold westerly flow and get us on the board for December.. Although tonight has trace potential..lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 1 minute ago, wolfie09 said: It would be nice to finally have a cold westerly flow and get us on the board for December.. Although tonight has trace potential..lol How many traces equate to an inch? 10-15? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 4, 2021 Author Share Posted December 4, 2021 I wonder if Weds results in the best Lake effect band? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Iceresistance Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 6z GEFS Mean Snowfall through 7 Days 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 4, 2021 Share Posted December 4, 2021 8 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I wonder if Weds results in the best Lake effect band? Canadian keeps trying to highlight this idea but I’m thinking winds will be too light to get anything of significance kicking. May see a band hang over the lake and try and throw some snow showers our way. Something to watch at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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