SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 12:29 PM, TugHillMatt said: Good morning, all! Does this count as one of my dustings for the season? Have a fantastic day and may the winds blow from your house to Delta's... Expand Dusting… yeah… I think it’s a little short of what we would call an official “trace”. Don’t be so picky dude… those dustings will add up eventually! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 KBUF not liking the lake effect setup this morning. It’s gonna dry out faster than my wife’s meatloaf… basically verbatim… There is also a potential for lake effect snows behind the front, but this risk has diminished some since it will dry out rather quickly behind the front. Rapidly dropping temperatures Monday afternoon will change lingering precipitation over to snow by Monday evening, while winds shift from the SW to the NW. Timing of the changeover suggests most accumulating snows would be east of the lakes, mainly across higher terrain where it will benefit from upsloping and cooler temperatures. This is likely to produce at least several inches of snow across these locations, along with gusty winds Monday night. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 You've got to live on a mountaintop or plateau these days to get real snows outside of January and February. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 12:29 PM, TugHillMatt said: Good morning, all! Does this count as one of my dustings for the season? Have a fantastic day and may the winds blow from your house to Delta's... Expand You got dumped on! Quick, go get the Christmas tree 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 I just want to see josh allen throw it 100 yards with the wind on monday night. Have stevenson run as fast as possible down the field and just bomb it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 2:18 PM, BuffaloWeather said: I just want to see josh allen throw it 100 yards with the wind on monday night. Have stevenson run as fast as possible down the field and just bomb it. Expand Yeah but we would have to trust the o line to hold the pocket for at least 4 seconds… that’s been a big ask this year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Buf hit 53 yesterday, +11 departure for the day. You want to know when the last greater than -11 departure was? May 28th of this year with a -15. In that time we've probably had 50 +10 departure days. I counted and it was 34 days with a +10 departure or greater since May 28th. Insane! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 2:29 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Buf hit 53 yesterday, +11 departure for the day. You want to know when the last greater than -11 departure was? May 28th of this year with a -15. In that time we've probably had 50 +10 departure days. I counted and it was 34 days with a +10 departure or greater since May 28th. Insane! Expand Winters as we knew them are just dust in the wind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 The ALB radar outage is killing me. Do that in October. Another day another flurry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 There is also a potential for lake effect snows behind the front, but this risk has diminished some since it will dry out rather quickly behind the front. Rapidly dropping temperatures Monday afternoon will change lingering precipitation over to snow by Monday evening, while winds shift from the SW to the NW. Timing of the changeover suggests most accumulating snows would be east of the lakes, mainly across higher terrain where it will benefit from upsloping and cooler temperatures. This is likely to produce at least several inches of snow across these locations, along with gusty winds Monday night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 3:17 PM, wolfie09 said: There is also a potential for lake effect snows behind the front, but this risk has diminished some since it will dry out rather quickly behind the front. Rapidly dropping temperatures Monday afternoon will change lingering precipitation over to snow by Monday evening, while winds shift from the SW to the NW. Timing of the changeover suggests most accumulating snows would be east of the lakes, mainly across higher terrain where it will benefit from upsloping and cooler temperatures. This is likely to produce at least several inches of snow across these locations, along with gusty winds Monday night. Expand When the NAM shows nothing at end of its run you know its time to bow out on any LES potential. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 2:18 PM, BuffaloWeather said: I just want to see josh allen throw it 100 yards with the wind on monday night. Have stevenson run as fast as possible down the field and just bomb it. Expand The line of scrimmage would have to be inside their own 10 yard line. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 3:38 PM, BuffaloWeather said: When the NAM shows nothing at end of its run you know its time to bow out on any LES potential. Expand RGEM actually has a good look… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 GFS with a moderate event on Wednesday fwiw.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Just quickly looked at the 12z GFS it has a bit more of a response behind the front Monday but still short lived, Wednesday is looking more impressive for 3 runs now and could be a gradient storm. It keeps the low in SW PA but has enough warm air over riding the low to keep rain at the PA line and snow north of the southern tier. In the past this setup has led to decent storm totals and if this holds could be our first widespread event 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Icon has a lake response.. Looks euro like with the band heading south and then backing north ..Not the most impressive but whatev lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 4:15 PM, wolfie09 said: GFS with a moderate event on Wednesday fwiw.. Expand The taint line is awfully close. Then after this there’s several cutters so whatever falls will be gone in a blink of an eye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Looks like we might get a WNW lake event at some point this weekend that will melt the next day. Then maybe an I 95 storm Wednesday? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Canadian looks a little better for les. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 5:13 PM, BuffaloWeather said: Canadian looks a little better for les. Expand As does the GFS, cave to the Euro? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 5:36 PM, lakeeffectkid383 said: As does the GFS, cave to the Euro? Expand I see about a 6-8 hour window of decent lake effect parameters, main issue is the high winds so not really high on the event. Thinking few inches max, most likely across boston hills. Probably see some flakes during bills game. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 5:42 PM, BuffaloWeather said: I see about a 6-8 hour window of decent lake effect parameters, main issue is the high winds so not really high on the event. Thinking few inches max, most likely across boston hills. Probably see some flakes during bills game. Expand Don’t care how much we get but it would be cool to see some heavy snow squalls and 50+ mph winds during the game even if it hinders our offense. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 5:42 PM, BuffaloWeather said: I see about a 6-8 hour window of decent lake effect parameters, main issue is the high winds so not really high on the event. Thinking few inches max, most likely across boston hills. Probably see some flakes during bills game. Expand Got 4 of us driving down from Toronto/Hamilton after work for the game. Pretty pumped as this will be my first game back since 2019. Its always a good reminder how close and connected we are. When I get picked up at the GO Train parking lot in Grimsby with commuters from Toronto, Highmark stadium is 55 mile drive away or 1 hour 8 minutes haha. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 5:42 PM, BuffaloWeather said: I see about a 6-8 hour window of decent lake effect parameters, main issue is the high winds so not really high on the event. Thinking few inches max, most likely across boston hills. Probably see some flakes during bills game. Expand Sounds about right. Short window but lined up about as close as your going to get it to overlap a Bills home game. Ch2 model was showing that this afternoon. Had a band setup near the city around 3/4pm and then work it’s way south. Initially had the band right over the stadium for the 815 kickoff but had it well south by 930. Even if it just ends up being some lighter snows the winds will make it look nasty down in the bowl. This is going to be a real tight forecast for the NWS and local mets. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 I've lost most of my hope on interesting weather for the game, but this will still be the most exciting and important game of the season for us. Time to focus on football I guess, haha. No Tredavious White has me quite concerned. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 6:13 PM, DeltaT13 said: I've lost most of my hope on interesting weather for the game, but this will still be the most exciting and important game of the season for us. Time to focus on football I guess, haha. No Tredavious White has me quite concerned. Expand euro looks better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 It appears the GFS is on to the Wednesday system as more robust than the Euro…it was also the first of the 2 models to have this system a cutter…is the GFS becoming more reliable? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 ...HIGH WIND WATCH IN EFFECT FROM MONDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY EVENING... * WHAT...Southwest winds 25 to 40 mph with gusts up to 60 mph possible. The strongest winds are expected from mid morning through late afternoon. * WHERE...Niagara, Orleans, Erie, and Genesee counties. * WHEN...From Monday morning through Monday evening. * IMPACTS...Damaging winds could blow down trees and power lines. Widespread power outages are possible. Travel could be difficult, especially for high profile vehicles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 On 12/3/2021 at 7:50 PM, Thinksnow18 said: It appears the GFS is on to the Wednesday system as more robust than the Euro…it was also the first of the 2 models to have this system a cutter…is the GFS becoming more reliable? Expand All the models suck. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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