BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 Top analog for Monday 12/25/1996. http://www.eas.slu.edu/CIPS/ANALOG/Event.php?reg=EC&fhr=F108&rundt=2021120212&dt=1996122500 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Were we expecting a line of convection to form this afternoon? Was just looking out a window facing west and sky towards the lake is pitch black right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Were we expecting a line of convection to form this afternoon? Was just looking out a window facing west and sky towards the lake is pitch black right now. Just passed right over me in Williamsville…actually got caught in it on way home from work…heavy rain mixed with hail…not graupel as it’s 50 out… crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 13 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Were we expecting a line of convection to form this afternoon? Was just looking out a window facing west and sky towards the lake is pitch black right now. It's a sharp cold front plowing through 50 degree air. Seems plausible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 A deepening area of low pressure is progged to cut the Great Lakes from the Mid-West and track northwest of western and north central NY Sunday-Monday. Signals in the ensembles from the GEFS, NAEFS, and ECMWF ENS are surfacing that show a potential wind event across the region sometime during Sunday night-Monday night. Many parameters such as sharp pressure rises and cold air advection behind a strong cold front associated with a deepening surface low pressure match local climatology for high wind events across western and north central NY. Widespread rain will likely move across the region ahead of the cold front Sunday-Monday. Stay tuned for further updates and details on intensity and timing. Temperatures will likely start off in the upper 30s to low 40s Monday morning and fall through the day into Monday night. Lake effect snow showers will likely begin behind the cold front Monday-Tuesday resulting in accumulating snow for some locations east of the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 High winds don't really work with lake effect, but would really impact the Bills game. @DeltaT13 would be on cloud 9 with snow and high winds. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: High winds don't really work with lake effect, but would really impact the Bills game. @DeltaT13 would be on cloud 9 with snow and high winds. Heck yeah, that’s why I couldn’t miss this game even though it’s looking like it’ll just be high winds by game time. I mean I’m super pumped just to see a meaningful and exciting Monday night game in Buffalo. Exciting weather is just the icing on the cake. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 2 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Heck yeah, that’s why I couldn’t miss this game even though it’s looking like it’ll just be high winds by game time. I mean I’m super pumped just to see a meaningful and exciting Monday night game in Buffalo. Exciting weather is just the icing on the cake. Watch there be a game delay for wind. They did just game delay a dome for lightning earlier in the season... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 16 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: It's a sharp cold front plowing through 50 degree air. Seems plausible. Am I recording this as hail or graupel? Or just “frozen precip that goes ping”? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 16 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: High winds don't really work with lake effect, but would really impact the Bills game. @DeltaT13 would be on cloud 9 with snow and high winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 39 minutes ago, Luke_Mages said: Watch there be a game delay for wind. They did just game delay a dome for lightning earlier in the season... Bills Patriots played a super windy game back in 2008. Had to have the grounds crew hold the goal posts straight for FG attempts. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 2, 2021 Author Share Posted December 2, 2021 I'd have Allen run the ball all day. Also have Allen throw it deep a few times going with the wind with our fastest player. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 I gotta say I’m getting pretty amped for next week…a lot of potential with each system to satisfy most of our weather wishes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 54 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: He might be able to throw it 100 yards in one direction but only 10 in the other. Maybe the record for the longest field goal will be broken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 14 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: He might be able to throw it 100 yards in one direction but only 10 in the other. Maybe the record for the longest field goal will be broken. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Honest question…did someone give the GFS anti winter software??? The system for next Wednesday is now completely gone and east of us…seriously, WTF! IIRC the GFS used to spit out cold as if it was on an arctic high all winter only to get squashed by the more reliable Euro…today it appears the Euro is the colder solution and the GFS is the wet blanket… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 50 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Honest question…did someone give the GFS anti winter software??? The system for next Wednesday is now completely gone and east of us…seriously, WTF! IIRC the GFS used to spit out cold as if it was on an arctic high all winter only to get squashed by the more reliable Euro…today it appears the Euro is the colder solution and the GFS is the wet blanket… Hah! What a mess. I said about a month ago that the pattern was looking like a hardcore +AO one, where all the cold gets bottled up to the north. The latest GFS looks like that: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted December 2, 2021 Share Posted December 2, 2021 Here another kick to the junk... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said: Honest question…did someone give the GFS anti winter software??? The system for next Wednesday is now completely gone and east of us…seriously, WTF! IIRC the GFS used to spit out cold as if it was on an arctic high all winter only to get squashed by the more reliable Euro…today it appears the Euro is the colder solution and the GFS is the wet blanket… GFS is not even showing a lake response off Erie after this system passes through Monday PM. Not buying it. RGEM and NAM will finally get to chime in on the 12z run tomorrow! Only trend on GFS that is concerning (if your hoping for a snow game Monday night) is how much it has slowed everything down. Here’s a loop of the past 5 runs all for 7pm Monday. At this rate you guys might just be getting blown over and soaked by the initial frontal passage for kickoff. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 48 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: GFS is not even showing a lake response off Erie after this system passes through Monday PM. Not buying it. RGEM and NAM will finally get to chime in on the 12z run tomorrow! Only trend on GFS that is concerning (if your hoping for a snow game Monday night) is how much it has slowed everything down. Here’s a loop of the past 5 runs all for 7pm Monday. At this rate you guys might just be getting blown over and soaked by the initial frontal passage for kickoff. That’s a good trend for me. I’d love to see the frontal passage closer to kickoff (only because I think a true lake band is completely off the table at this point) because about 40 mins after the cold front is usually the peak times for gusts. The ideal setup is a frontal passage around 730 while tailgating. Then winds ramping up big time right into kickoff and through the first half with gusts to 50-60. Then by second half we have scrappy snowflakes and a stiff breeze as temps plummet. Perhaps getting a coating on the field. I think that’s about the most interesting scenario right now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 1 hour ago, BGM Blizzard said: Here another kick to the junk... Upgraded to a blizzard warning lol URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Honolulu HI 326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS... HIZ028-031430- /O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0004.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ /O.NEW.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ Big Island Summits- 326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph. * WHERE...Big Island Summits. * WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 6 AM HST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility at times, with periods of zero visibility. See the High Wind Warning that is also in effect. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strong winds will likely cause significant drifting of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 2 hours ago, BGM Blizzard said: Here another kick to the junk... I saw snow on that summit in 2019 in May. (Mauna Kea) The best star gazing I've ever seen in my life. The 3 telescopes are on the right. It was much colder than I thought and we just had tshirts and a rain jacket. It was in the upper 20s with a stiff breeze. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 55 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Upgraded to a blizzard warning lol URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Honolulu HI 326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND SUMMITS... HIZ028-031430- /O.UPG.PHFO.WS.A.0004.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ /O.NEW.PHFO.BZ.W.0001.211204T0400Z-211205T1600Z/ Big Island Summits- 326 PM HST Thu Dec 2 2021 ...BLIZZARD WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 6 AM HST SUNDAY... * WHAT...Blizzard conditions expected. Total snow accumulations of up to 12 inches or more. Winds gusting over 100 mph. * WHERE...Big Island Summits. * WHEN...From 6 PM Friday to 6 AM HST Sunday. * IMPACTS...Travel could be very difficult to impossible. Blowing snow will significantly reduce visibility at times, with periods of zero visibility. See the High Wind Warning that is also in effect. * ADDITIONAL DETAILS...The strong winds will likely cause significant drifting of snow. It’s always interesting to see the setup when Hawaii gets a big shot of cold and snow. In this scenario, an unbelievably deep and explosive mid latitude cyclone explodes off the coast of Russia deepening 40mb in about 24 hours. This forces a massive downstream ridge that then pinches off a chunk of arctic air over the central pacific. It gets hung up for a few days as a cutoff low. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 47 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: It’s always interesting to see the setup when Hawaii gets a big shot of cold and snow. In this scenario, an unbelievably deep and explosive mid latitude cyclone explodes off the coast of Russia deepening 40mb in about 24 hours. This forces a massive downstream ridge that then pinches off a chunk of arctic air over the central pacific. It gets hung up for a few days as a cutoff low. Nice I was looking at it and had two thoughts. 1. You can see our next system (Monday PM) getting spit out in the Northern Rockies on Sat/Sun but where do we trace it back too. Hard to tell with so many Lows floating around the NW Pacific Coast line if this is sliding down from Alaska or breaking off from somewhere else. Any ideas? 2. Notice when that central basin storm does break off it makes a rubber band like jolt, snapping the chalk line, to realign and in doing so pushes a nice chunk of arctic air our way. Such an interesting setup would be a shame for us to not cash in with something out of this short term setup. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 3, 2021 Author Share Posted December 3, 2021 Canadian and GFS look pretty meh for lake effect after the front goes through. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Ideal would look like 24F, good RH, steep lapse rates and 250 degree 25 mph wind. At kick off. Hey, we can dream! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 33 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Ideal would look like 24F, good RH, steep lapse rates and 250 degree 25 mph wind. At kick off. Hey, we can dream! Well yeah man! I want nothing more than 5”/hr. I’m trying to figure out the best we can do with a stupid cutter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 I can already see where mid week next week is heading. It will be a hit to the east. It's either cutter or east coast. We just seem to get dying primaries and cold fronts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 3, 2021 Share Posted December 3, 2021 Good morning, all! Does this count as one of my dustings for the season? Have a fantastic day and may the winds blow from your house to Delta's... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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