WxWatcher007 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 13 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Ha! Yup! Your question made me think of another thing about our subforum I am thankful for: We don't have any trolls that "model hug" and post every single model run to fit their agenda of "always cutters and rain" or "non-stop snowstorms." We have such a great group. It is a great group here. I enjoy popping in. Still hoping to get out there for a big chase this season. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 9 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: 0z GFS for kickoff Monday night… discuss… I’m game for a blizzard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 19 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: It is a great group here. I enjoy popping in. Still hoping to get out there for a big chase this season. Thanks! Watertown had a very wintry day yesterday. Getting WNW flow graupel showers this morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 It appears, at this week away distance, that BOTH, yes BOTH models try to give us a storm next Wednesday timeframe. The Bills game on Monday night per the GFS would be quite windy with LES potential and the Euro not as windy but also less chance of precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 Nov. final numbers BUF: +1.2 5" of snow ROC: - 0.9 3.9" of snow WAT: +0.5 SYR: +0.5 4.2" of snow BING: -1.5 5.6" of snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 I count 4 rainstorms on GFS the next 2 weeks. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 11 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Looks like conditions will heavily favor the Patriots with their strong run game and physical offensive and defensive lines. Meanwhile the Bills passing game will likely be significantly affected by snow and strong winds and we can’t depend on our run game against their defense to bail us out. Don’t see how these conditions would help in any way what so ever for the way the Bills are built. They need a dome and that is the only way I would support a new stadium being built. Agree. I suppose the hope is Allen's gun can fight the wind for some deep(er) plays here and there and keep us in there for some Allen runs to break it our way. Allen's running is going to be the deciding factor if the bills will be in this one. Can't miss a QB sneak 4th and goal this game. I can't believe how bad our defense has been and the injuries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cleetussnow Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Just now, cleetussnow said: Agree. I suppose the hope is Allen's gun can fight the wind for some deep(er) plays here and there and keep us in there for some Allen runs to break it our way. Allen's running is going to be the deciding factor if the bills will be in this one. Can't miss a QB sneak 4th and goal this game. I can't believe how bad our defense has been and the injuries. And I say 'our' as though 'we' are going to be suiting up or standing on the sideline with a clipboard. lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 NHCan and ECMWF in relatively strong agreement with a cutter low tracking from the Upper Mid west on Sunday across the Lower Great Lakes Sunday night and Monday. This increasingly likely scenario would result in some widespread rain over our region that will end as snow showers Monday afternoon. Current guidance brings the system directly over our forecast area...which would limit the high wind threat. This track would only take a nudge to the north and west to change that outcome...so stay tuned. Lake snows would be possible east of both lakes on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 12 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Looks like conditions will heavily favor the Patriots with their strong run game and physical offensive and defensive lines. Meanwhile the Bills passing game will likely be significantly affected by snow and strong winds and we can’t depend on our run game against their defense to bail us out. Don’t see how these conditions would help in any way what so ever for the way the Bills are built. They need a dome and that is the only way I would support a new stadium being built. If the Bills get a dome I'll quit being a fan after more than 40 years. That has to be one of the lamest things I've seen posted on this site in awhile (no offense to you). The Buffalo Bills are known as a gritty tough team, we don't need no stinking dome. Dome's shouldnt be allowed anywhere in this sport. The whole point is to play in the elements. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Nov. final numbers BUF: +1.2 5" of snow ROC: - 0.9 3.9" of snow WAT: +0.5 SYR: +0.5 4.2" of snow BING: -1.5 5.6" of snow Holy crap, Bing winning again for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 That last GFS 12z run was Uber close to reeling off 3 straight snow makers…as it is they’re rain for now. As for the dome I agree with you. We the fans look forward to the elements and watching as plenty of southern teams crumble in the conditions!!! Leave it as it is and if I’m too nostalgic keep it it in OP as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 3 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Holy crap, Bing winning again for now. It amazes me that with almost 1/2 foot of snow you’d never know it as it has melted as fast as it accumulated. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: That last GFS 12z run was Uber close to reeling off 3 straight snow makers…as it is they’re rain for now. As for the dome I agree with you. We the fans look forward to the elements and watching as plenty of southern teams crumble in the conditions!!! Leave it as it is and if I’m too nostalgic keep it it in OP as well. Yeah I go both ways with this. If I had to choose between winning a superbowl and getting a new stadium without a dome I'd choose winning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: If the Bills get a dome I'll quit being a fan after more than 40 years. That has to be one of the lamest things I've seen posted on this site in awhile (no offense to you). The Buffalo Bills are known as a gritty tough team, we don't need no stinking dome. Dome's shouldnt be allowed anywhere in this sport. The whole point is to play in the elements. I can see your point I really do however the way this team was built (and not really a fault, just the way the whole league is progressing) they like to air the ball out and playing in frequent inclement weather hinders their strengths. To me it’s all about winning a championship as fun as it is to have an Indy snow game, I would rather see them be able to maximize their strengths inside a dome and be able to hoist the Lombardi more than once before Allen’s career is over. That’s not to say he and this team can’t do that playing outside but in my opinion playing in ideal conditions gives them the best chance to win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 @lakeeffectkid383 Me and you going 1/2 in our fantasy league. I still can't believe I got Hill and Taylor with my 1st 2 picks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 That SE ridge on the GEFS is brutal just unrelenting. A parade of cutters is pretty likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Well the best chance to see snow in this type of pattern is behind each front, if the air is cold enough.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Congrats UP MI...lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 The Euro continues to be colder than the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 24 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: The Euro continues to be colder than the GFS. Agreed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 Pretty big difference between EPS and GEFS mid range. Hopefully EPS is correct. The storm track will be in those white lines. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 I guess the positive is at least we won't have a deep snowpack to melt any time soon... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 9 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: I guess the positive is at least we won't have a deep snowpack to melt any time soon... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 You know we're entering Cutter-land when several days in the forecast are now predicted to have 40s and 50s for highs, there are wind advisories, and Buffalo and the Tug are excited for backside snows... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 December is my favorite winter month so always sucks losing it. December 2010 was the best. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 4 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: You know we're entering Cutter-land when several days in the forecast are now predicted to have 40s and 50s for highs, there are wind advisories, and Buffalo and the Tug are excited for backside snows... Hold my beer as I depart Dustingville to Cutter Island 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 The WNY bunch might like the long range on the NWS text for next Monday…ok maybe I’ll like it, WNash and Luke Mages…the rest of you are banished to TugHill Matt’s… 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted December 1, 2021 Author Share Posted December 1, 2021 5 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: The WNY bunch might like the long range on the NWS text for next Monday…ok maybe I’ll like it, WNash and Luke Mages…the rest of you are banished to TugHill Matt’s… Lake snow event for Bills game!?! 100% all about it! This is why cutters aren't the worst thing as wolfie mentioned you can get some good W/SW flow behind them if cold air is there. A change to a meridional flow this period will bring active weather to our region. Sunday an upper level trough will deepen over the western Great Lakes, while zonal flow over the Northeast amplifies. This trough will deepen a surface low to our west and north...one that the operational model runs of the GFS, ECMWF and Canadian are in fairly good agreement with as far as track and deepening the low. Attached to this deepening surface low will be a cold front, with convective showers ahead and along it Sunday Night. The cold front will reach WNY early Monday morning, sweeping across the region through the day...with post front steeping lapse rates and mixing level heights supporting strong winds. Cold air at 850 hPa deepening -10 to -14C behind the cold front through Tuesday will set the stage for a lake effect precipitation response, with accumulating lake snows likely Monday afternoon through Tuesday. Exact placement is still uncertain at this point...but could include areas northeast of the Lakes, including Buffalo and Watertown Monday. High pressure will briefly near the region Tuesday, with winds and lake snows diminishing, but another storm system Wednesday could renew the stronger winds along with areas of rain and snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted December 1, 2021 Share Posted December 1, 2021 Just now, Thinksnow18 said: The WNY bunch might like the long range on the NWS text for next Monday…ok maybe I’ll like it, WNash and Luke Mages…the rest of you are banished to TugHill Matt’s… Lol...Just, ugh. We get Tennessee summers and Seattle winters now. Just a little less extreme...for now. Well, I still have some snow piles around town from the lake effect win last week. I see lots of rain, snow, slush, rain, and wind in our near future. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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