lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Just now, BuffaloWeather said: Old map lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 I want to say the CFS is wrong, they are usually pretty good once you get a few days before the month forecasted. Let's hope this isnt true. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: Old map lol post new one then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: post new one then They don’t have one out yet lol. That’s from Monday and yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 24, 2021 Author Share Posted November 24, 2021 Just now, lakeeffectkid383 said: They don’t have one out yet lol. That’s from Monday abs yesterday. Than the map aint old now is it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 minute ago, BuffaloWeather said: Than the map aint old now is it? I’m just saying we’re past that forecast period already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Forecast has the change over after 9 am Friday, light accumulation during the day.. Friday night we should have better ratios with the NW flow.. Hoping for a decent 3"-6" lol Friday Rain and snow showers, becoming all snow after 9am. Areas of blowing snow between 9am and 4pm. High near 38. Breezy, with a west wind 17 to 20 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. New snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches possible. Friday Night Snow showers likely. Cloudy, with a low around 25. Northwest wind 15 to 17 mph. Chance of precipitation is 70%. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 Sunday through Monday the guidance suite is coming into better agreement on dropping a fairly potent shortwave through the backside of the mean upper level trough across our region...with this feature eventually carving out a small closed low over New York State and/or New England by Monday...while also helping to deepen the larger- scale upper level trough. Meanwhile at the surface...an attendant elongated surface wave will slide over or just south of our region on Sunday...before redeveloping off the New England coastline on Monday. The above developments will result in a good chance for a general light snowfall developing across our area Sunday into Sunday night. PoPs have thus been raised substantially from continuity to account for this...and can foresee a need to raise these even further in later packages should current model trends persist. As the surface low redevelops off the New England coastline later Sunday night and Monday...a cyclonic northwesterly flow of colder air will develop across our region and lead to the development of areas of lake effect snow to the southeast of both lakes...along with a few more synoptic snow showers elsewhere. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 24, 2021 Share Posted November 24, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Pup All ready for Christmas.. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Forecast soundings show plenty of moisture in the snow growth layer through most of the overnight, however the best omega is still progged to be just below the snow growth layer...all in all, things still look rather favorable for snow to liquid ratios reaching 13-16:1 for a time. With QPF amounts between 0.20 to 0.40", that would indicate snow amounts of 3 to 6 inches in the favored areas around Syracuse, south into the higher elevations of the northern Susquehanna & Finger Lakes regions. Still a bit too far out to go with a winter weather advisory at this time, however confidence in these amounts is increasing. Will cover this potential in the HWO for now. If things line up even better than currently forecast (i.e. max Omega becomes better co-located within the snow growth region) the 90th percentile amounts are pushing 6-8" locally around Syracuse and the higher elevations just south. Winds will continue blowing at 15-25 mph and gusty at times overnight, creating areas of blowing, and perhaps drifting snow in wide open areas. Further south, expect scattered snow showers and flurries for the Twin Tiers (up to 1" or so here), with just isolated flurries and partly cloudy skies for the Wyoming Valley/Poconos region. It will be colder with lows well down into the 20s. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Gfs18z 24 hour snowfall for Sunday into Monday.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 18Z GFS is spicy IMBY Monday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Looks like we might have an interesting drive back from Tennessee on Sunday. At least it's looking like snow and not ice. The last time we came down to Tennessee for Thanksgiving (2019) we came back to Freezing rain around Buffalo, sleetstorm in Rochester, and Graupel storm in Syracuse. The thruway was a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Monday could be a great day of Lake enhanced snows if that Low is off New England. Lake enhanced snows are my favorite! Hours and hours of steadier snowfalls in moist environment with no shenanigans of mixing, dry layers, shear, blah blah blah. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 When we left Baldwinsville at 2, there was still a solid snowcover despite temps in the 40s and full sunshine. So, might be a White Thanksgiving, at least to start, for some of the Syracuse area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Monday could be a great day of Lake enhanced snows if that Low is off New England. Lake enhanced snows are my favorite! Hours and hours of steadier snowfalls in moist environment with no shenanigans of mixing, dry layers, shear, blah blah blah. Couldn’t agree more. I love how a LP can prime that atmosphere and blanket us with enhanced snow. Little grainy flakes from the LP and parachutes from the lake. Perfect combo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 You can actually see how the snowpack is refrigerating the Bville area. 31 to 33 degrees.. Love it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 4 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: Couldn’t agree more. I love how a LP can prime that atmosphere and blanket us with enhanced snow. Little grainy flakes from the LP and parachutes from the lake. Perfect combo YES!!! When I lived in West Michigan, we would get them with cold Alberta clippers on a SW flow off the wide part of Lake Michigan. They were the heaviest and most enjoyable snowfalls of Winters there. I know you guys rock them on NE flow and Syracuse cashes in on NW flow with those Retrograding Lows. But, you and I can both often enjoy them in some form at different times of an event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: YES!!! When I lived in West Michigan, we would get them with cold Alberta clippers on a SW flow off the wide part of Lake Michigan. They were the heaviest and most enjoyable snowfalls of Winters there. I know you guys rock them on NE flow and Syracuse cashes in on NW flow with those Retrograding Lows. But, you and I can both often enjoy them in some form at different times of an event. We might be seeing the first area wide snow advisories for the entire CWA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 0z runs backed off any area wide synoptic event. Poo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buckeyes_Suck Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Happy thanksgiving everyone! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Happy Thanksgiving to all! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 New map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Hrrr is pretty moist.. Obviously not all snow verbatim.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 17 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: New map Right on the 3-4 and 4-6” line. Would sign up for that in a heartbeat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Happy Thanksgiving, everyone! Hopefully we can give thanks for big daddy snow events this winter. Over and over again. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 25, 2021 Share Posted November 25, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: New map Solid. If true. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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