wolfie09 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Could be a decent event for the southern tug, here we will obviously be battling rain/snow lol Still a little to early in the season..Not sure what buff sees wrt to the snow map lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Strong cold air advection will continue Thursday night into Friday as the upper trough slides through, allowing colder air to continue to spill out of Canada. Once the synoptic rain shield exits Thursday evening, lake effect showers will ramp up east/southeast of the lakes as 850 mb temperatures fall to -8C/-10C by Friday morning. Model soundings displaying a rather impressive environment to support lake effect potential, developing extreme over-lake instability with lake induced equilibrium levels rising to near 15K feet and lake induced CAPES to near 1000 J/kg, particularly off Lake Ontario. Stronger lake convection could certainly produce some lightning/thunder. Immediate lakeshore areas could stay a rain/snow mix, but certainly everywhere else there will be a transition over to all snow. Higher terrain east of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will likely see several inches of accumulations Thursday night and Friday morning. There is an outside chance for localized more significant accumulations. This period will need to be monitored with potential headlines needed as confidence increases. For other areas, it will again be a challenge for accumulations, particularly close to the lakeshores where it is still warmer, though where it snows hard enough, it will accumulate, as we`ve seen over the past few days. Will mention the potential for accumulating lake snows in the HWO product. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: The hype is real! Love how a coastal storm in late November is a “climate crisis” Fake news at its worst. *facepalm* 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Strong cold air advection will continue Thursday night into Friday as the upper trough slides through, allowing colder air to continue to spill out of Canada. Once the synoptic rain shield exits Thursday evening, lake effect showers will ramp up east/southeast of the lakes as 850 mb temperatures fall to -8C/-10C by Friday morning. Model soundings displaying a rather impressive environment to support lake effect potential, developing extreme over-lake instability with lake induced equilibrium levels rising to near 15K feet and lake induced CAPES to near 1000 J/kg, particularly off Lake Ontario. Stronger lake convection could certainly produce some lightning/thunder. Immediate lakeshore areas could stay a rain/snow mix, but certainly everywhere else there will be a transition over to all snow. Higher terrain east of both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will likely see several inches of accumulations Thursday night and Friday morning. There is an outside chance for localized more significant accumulations. This period will need to be monitored with potential headlines needed as confidence increases. For other areas, it will again be a challenge for accumulations, particularly close to the lakeshores where it is still warmer, though where it snows hard enough, it will accumulate, as we`ve seen over the past few days. Will mention the potential for accumulating lake snows in the HWO product. Looks good in your spot wolf. Looks like 2 events for you the next week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Really hoping the pattern stays cold thru Dec. Seems we get white Thanksgivings more than Christmases lately. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Looks good in your spot wolf. Looks like 2 events for you the next week. 41 minutes ago, vortmax said: Really hoping the pattern stays cold thru Dec. Seems we get white Thanksgivings more than Christmases lately. Yes...the SizzleMas Effect has largely replaced Lake Effect around here for the Mid December -> New Years timeframe. You know, the one time of year that even snow haters don't mind seeing some. We've hung on to small amounts of snowcover for Christmas around here somewhat often in recent years, or relied on Xmas Day snow showers to be sort of "white." At least IMBY. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 45 minutes ago, vortmax said: Really hoping the pattern stays cold thru Dec. Seems we get white Thanksgivings more than Christmases lately. If I could put $ on Christmas being balmy this year, I would. Timing doesn’t look good. It’s anew tradition- torch on XMas Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 2 hours ago, rochesterdave said: GEFS looks a shit ton better. We go with that. Lol ICON looks more like a decent lake effect event next week with the synoptic part being basically a frontal passage. Good news, if true, for the LES people. Table scraps for the rest of us plebs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 Last Christmas was incredible around here. Between Xmas eve and day we had over 30" 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Last Christmas was incredible around here. Between Xmas eve and day we had over 30" I don’t think we had anything in Rochester. Flurries. I’d love to see a nice synoptic event this year. Spread the love around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 Decent storm on Monday, might have some SW flow lake enhanced precip ahead of that before quickly turning NW. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 All signs of redevelopment or retrograde are gone on the 12z models. Yawn…. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 12 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: All signs of redevelopment or retrograde are gone on the 12z models. Yawn…. Yeah the Pacific has trended worse with every new model run too. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Yeah it develops much later.. Trough also more neutral, obviously different than a couple of days ago, no surprise there lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 It looks worse as we get closer? Shocking.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Revracer800 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 33 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: It looks worse as we get closer? Shocking.... Sounds very very familiar lol. Wait, it's last winter all over again lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 It just seems that we’re doomed to accept this new normal…the models over doing it showing big cold outbreaks and snowstorms to cool downs and cutters. Just trying to absorb it all. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Sunday, the shortwave digging south out of the Canadian Rockies and then a second shortwave originating out of the Pacific NW begins to phase over the upper Midwest. This will be our pattern change that brings increasing chances for showers Sunday afternoon and then continues into Sunday night ahead and along a strong cold front. The cold front looks like it will exit the region Monday with CAA ramping up and lake effect developing in its wake east-southeast of both lakes. Looks like initially it will be a mix of rain-snow which quickly transitions to all snow as H850 temperatures fall to -8C/- 10C by Monday evening. Right now have favored or leaned on the Canadian-NH/ECMWF guidance from Monday evening through Tuesday which best depicts the lake effect under cyclonic NW`erly flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 16 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: It just seems that we’re doomed to accept this new normal…the models over doing it showing big cold outbreaks and snowstorms to cool downs and cutters. Just trying to absorb it all. Its Nov 17th. No doom or gloom yet, maybe if we get to middle of January and its still warm then maybe. Average high today in buffalo is still 48. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 Up to 62 degrees in Buffalo, going for walk after work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 NOV Temps: BUF: +1.2 ROC: -0.6 WAT: +1.8 SYR: +1.3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 ..Accumulating lake effect snow Thursday night-Friday... The cold front will exit east across New England Thursday night, with the last of the synoptic rain exiting the eastern Lake Ontario region by early evening. Our attention then turns back to the mesoscale and lake effect potential. Strong cold advection Thursday night will send 850MB temps down to about -8C, then dropping a little more to -9C by Friday evening behind a weak secondary cold front. Flow Thursday night will be westerly, then veer a little to WNW Friday morning before going northwest Friday afternoon behind the secondary cold front. Strong instability will develop over the lakes (especially Lake Ontario) with Lake Induced Equilibrium levels rising to near 15K feet briefly Friday morning. This will set the stage for a robust, albeit brief, lake response later Thursday night through Friday morning. Boundary layer temps stay marginal through the event, with a rain/snow mix close to the lakeshores and snow favored inland across higher terrain Thursday night through Friday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 Given the above, went with a very small bullseye of 5-7 inches on the southern Tug Hill for Thursday night through Friday, with 2-4 inches in surrounding lower elevations. There may be minor, inch or less accumulations Friday and Friday night southeast of the lake in the spray of multiple bands, with relatively mild surface temperatures preventing anything more. As far as accumulations go, expect the potential for 3-6 inches in the most persistent bands across the higher terrain of Chautauqua and Cattaraugus counties, with 1-3 inches across far southern Erie, southern Wyoming, and the higher terrain of Allegany County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Only made it to 46° so far, forecast was low-mid 50s, obviously going to bust low unless we continue to warm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 17, 2021 Author Share Posted November 17, 2021 This November is definitely more wintry then normal. We will have 4-5 snow events across Upstate this month. The focus is just across higher elevations and ski country. Some places in ski country will have had 2 feet already on the year by next week. The next 2 weeks favor W/NW flow for LES. The entrance point of the cold air is too far east for a SW flow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Well that explains it..Warm front to the SW, comes through CNY overnight followed by a CF tomorrow morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 10 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: This November is definitely more wintry then normal. We will have 4-5 snow events across Upstate this month. The focus is just across higher elevations and ski country. Some places in ski country will have had 2 feet already on the year by next week. The next 2 weeks favor W/NW flow for LES. The entrance point of the cold air is too far east for a SW flow. We’ve yet to have our first flakes in Rochester. Looks like we wait a bit longer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Well the GFS tries lol Obviously too warm verbatim.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tim123 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: We’ve yet to have our first flakes in Rochester. Looks like we wait a bit longer. We have recieved .4 inches so far so rochester has has snow so far this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 33 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well the GFS tries lol Obviously too warm verbatim.. Not certain why that solution could even be possible? There’s cold air to the west and north…since when does a northerly glow wrap in mild air? Answer? Never. Toss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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