wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Continues to see graupel in bunches lol Coated the deck . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Been getting a lot of graupel in these events..Here was last event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: 12Z runs are looking very interesting for tonight into tomorrow. WNW-NWly band cutting across Onondaga county. As usual, the drop-off is super sharp. Some runs are showing 6 to 10 inches for sections of the county. In general, my area is looking in the 3 to 6 inch range. If the models' bias of showing bands a little too far south ends up happening, then I could be golden. Obviously can't take those numbers at face value, especially considering meso guidance is showing temperatures above freezing throughout the night..Kuchera is about half of those 10-1 maps.. Either way you have your first shot at a light accumulation.. Kbgm from this morning.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Getting a bunch of graupel Imby.. Euro for Thursday/Friday fwiw.. Obviously this isn't how much will actually stick.. Icon Friday morning.. Ahh, the iconic ICON...let's see if it pulls out a win this season. Dave? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Gfs delivers again for interior NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs delivers again for interior NY Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 Snow totals: https://kamala.cod.edu/ny/latest.nous41.KBUF.html I measured 1.1" in Hamburg yesterday, the other 2 spotters near me had .5". Up to 3.2" on this early season. Highest totals off Erie 5.5" in Boston and off Ontario 5.6 in Redfield. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 49 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Obviously can't take those numbers at face value, especially considering meso guidance is showing temperatures above freezing throughout the night..Kuchera is about half of those 10-1 maps.. Either way you have your first shot at a light accumulation.. Kbgm from this morning.. Oh, I definitely am not expecting that much. That would definitely lead to huge disappointment. I have remember to keep expectations exceptionally low. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 The Rgem, one of the better lake effect models, is showing 3 to 6 inches across Onondaga county as well. Hoping for some white ground tomorrow morning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 I can't believe I have 20k posts on here, I need to get a life. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I can't believe I have 20k posts on here, I need to get a life. Too many shots of these floating in the pool? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 The ICON was pretty good model for my area last year. At least for snowfall. I believe it got an upgrade in 2020. Laugh away but I like it. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Well it there..At 966mb lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: Well it there..At 966mb lol I'll quote our President. C'mon man... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Take that look 2/3rds of Dec-Feb and that’s a winter we can all get with Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 I can already see how this lake effect band is setting up too far west. It'll train over southern Onondaga county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Give it time, winds will back it north overnight/early AM.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Overnight the Georgian Bay connection will migrate to southeast of Lake Ontario, with high-res guidance suggesting a dominant band will develop over Wayne/Cayuga County and extend into the Syracuse area. Temperatures are still marginal for accumulation across lower elevations, but if the precipitation rate intensifies enough in this dominant band there may be 1-2 inches of slushy accumulation. This lake effect band will persist through Tuesday afternoon, drifting slowly east/northeast into Oswego County. Warming boundary layer temperatures will allow rain to mix in by Tuesday afternoon, likely ending any snow accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 While we def are looking at the storm for the start of Tgiving week and hoping for wintry weather. There are more implications to the overall pattern than meets the eye. Whether it's rain or snow, or no storm, we need that deep trough that neg tilts to materialize. That trough is a good representation of a cyclonic wavebreak that fuels the development of the -nao mid to late tgivng week. First frame we can see the deep trough starting to neg tilt. Can also see the ridge building out ahead of the neg tilt trough neg tilts some more, more ridging building up into southeast Canada finally, cylconic wavebreak completed. Note the massive ridge built into Davis straits 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 For those wondering, weeklies generally look pretty good. Nothing that screams big time positive anomalies till maybe week 6? 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 10 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: For those wondering, weeklies generally look pretty good. Nothing that screams big time positive anomalies till maybe week 6? What’s the over under for 50F on Christmas? I’m definitely going over this year. Again… 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 BGM... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 1 hour ago, tombo82685 said: While we def are looking at the storm for the start of Tgiving week and hoping for wintry weather. There are more implications to the overall pattern than meets the eye. Whether it's rain or snow, or no storm, we need that deep trough that neg tilts to materialize. That trough is a good representation of a cyclonic wavebreak that fuels the development of the -nao mid to late tgivng week. First frame we can see the deep trough starting to neg tilt. Can also see the ridge building out ahead of the neg tilt trough neg tilts some more, more ridging building up into southeast Canada finally, cylconic wavebreak completed. Note the massive ridge built into Davis straits Why would you look at dynamic tropopause pressure as opposed to say 500 mb? Thanks. Really enjoying your posts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 More heavy graupel showers mixed with some flakes.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 25 minutes ago, cny rider said: Why would you look at dynamic tropopause pressure as opposed to say 500 mb? Thanks. Really enjoying your posts. I mean you could use h5 too. Just thought the dynamic tropopause showed it rather well with the heat transfer from the cyclonic wave break being pushed into Greenland well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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