wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Another marginal event coming up Friday, as it stands now.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Outside of day 7, go with ensembles guys. Operational models will flip flop back and forth in regards to handling possible -nao and specifically the north pacific pattern. How the north pacific pattern unfold will determine how cold that first cold shot is tgiving week and if this is a transient shot or sustained. More low pressure in AK/goa will flatten out ridge causing zonal flow. Want the low heights south or by the Aleutians 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 It's snowing in Cleveland and Erie. Erie was around 40 and now snow. So maybe.... But then, they weren't in the mid 40s (4 degrees above forecasted high) like the Sizzle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Precipitation type will be mainly snow in most areas late this afternoon and tonight, although there may be some rain mixed in at the onset before evaporative cooling takes hold and cools the boundary layer. Accumulations will be relatively minor late this afternoon through tonight, limited by warm surface temperatures and poor snow:water ratios. Expect the greatest accumulations across the higher terrain of the western Southern Tier and Boston Hills, with 2- 3 inches. Expect around an inch for the Niagara Frontier, and less than an inch from the Genesee Valley eastward to the lower elevations east of Lake Ontario. The Tug Hill Plateau will see 2-4 inches tonight, greatest across the southern end with local southerly upslope enhancement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Another event with temps in the mid-upper 30s, granted the timing stinks.. Obviously I'd take the snow over rain if possible lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Temp of 42 with a dp of 32, and I imagine we’ve hit our max temp for the day. I’m feeling confident I’ll get some snow this evening with precip starting right around sundown. Figure we should be able to at least get a coating. I’ll take it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 On 11/14/2021 at 7:03 PM, wolfie09 said: Expand It keeps showing up! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 The storm system that will impact our region this period is currently found over the Gulf of Alaska. This upper low will cross the western and central US early this week, and drive a cold front across our region Thursday. Rain showers upon this front will pass across our region Thursday...with the models a tad slower with the frontal passage, possibly allowing all of our region to top out in the 50s before cold air advection Thursday night and through the remainder of the week sends temperatures back below normal and supports a lake effect response. Temperatures dipping to -8 to -9C at 850 hPa Friday and Friday Night will support accumulating snows to the east and southeast of the Lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 That looks good, Wolfie. Could have a bit of staying power. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Getting white in northwest PA. Check out Meadville. https://www.erienewsnow.com/skyview-cameras Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 14, 2021 Author Share Posted November 14, 2021 All snow here go bills 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 On 11/14/2021 at 8:48 PM, BuffaloWeather said: All snow here go bills Expand On 11/14/2021 at 8:44 PM, TugHillMatt said: Getting white in northwest PA. Check out Meadville. https://www.erienewsnow.com/skyview-cameras Expand Looks like that here too already. Snow is coming down moderate and steady but accumulating very nicely on anything non pavement for now. Temp has plummeted to 33 degrees down from 38 just an hour or so ago. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 On 11/14/2021 at 8:51 PM, lakeeffectkid383 said: Looks like that here too already. Snow is coming down moderate and steady but accumulating very nicely on anything non pavement for now. Temp has plummeted to 33 degrees down from 38 just an hour or so ago. Expand Snow mixing in here now more as well. Perfect late fall early winter day. Wintery weather… Bills whooping the Jets… got a Beef Roast simmering in the oven. Things just feel right today! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 On 11/14/2021 at 9:13 PM, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Snow mixing in here now more as well. Perfect late fall early winter day. Wintery weather… Bills whooping the Jets… got a Beef Roast simmering in the oven. Things just feel right today! Expand Way for the boys to get back on track today. Really presently surprised by today’s snowfall. Figured I’d be too low elevation/too close to the lakeshore. As sun is setting temp is now down to 32 degrees and the snow is starting to stick to the roads as well. Heavy coating on the grass and if it keeps up like this for a few more hours the grass will be completely covered in no time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 On 11/14/2021 at 9:34 PM, lakeeffectkid383 said: Way for the boys to get back on track today. Really presently surprised by today’s snowfall. Figured I’d be too low elevation/too close to the lakeshore. As sun is setting temp is now down to 32 degrees and the snow is starting to stick to the roads as well. Heavy coating on the grass and if it keeps up like this for a few more hours the grass will be completely covered in no time. Expand It’s not quite as covered in Williamsville, sticking to most surfaces. NWS calling for 1-2” for Niagara Frontier tonight and if we’re being honest I see the higher end of that towards 2”. If you told me Thursday that we’d be closing in on potentially 4” over the weekend I wouldn’t believe it. IF the models are on to the cold in 10 days, we might be having a November like days of old. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 40 degrees with light rain. Just not sure if we'll be able to mix or flip to snow. Wondering if that heavier band racing through the Genesee Valley is aiding in changeover... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 On 11/14/2021 at 10:29 PM, TugHillMatt said: 40 degrees with light rain. Just not sure if we'll be able to mix or flip to snow. Wondering if that heavier band racing through the Genesee Valley is aiding in changeover... Expand The Sizzle will not be denied! 1335795300003315713.mp4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Seeing a mix of rain with some mangled flakes, temp still 38°. With the southerly breeze all that sizzle sizzle from cuse travels up the 81 corridor lol Some light accumulation just to the east, near Altmar/Williamstown.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Hanging in the upper 30s here. Wish that colder air in Southern Onondaga would seep on in here. Some mangled flakes mixed with rain. Looking forward to seeing some snow pics, WNY guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Has anyone noticed the west end of Lake Erie on radar? Those are some VERY healthy looking plumes aimed right at the metro/northtowns once the synoptic is done. The other lakes have really fired up with the passing of this S/W and thus could be interesting for a bit… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 On 11/15/2021 at 12:45 AM, Thinksnow18 said: Has anyone noticed the west end of Lake Erie on radar? Those are some VERY healthy looking plumes aimed right at the metro/northtowns once the synoptic is done. The other lakes have really fired up with the passing of this S/W and thus could be interesting for a bit… Expand That’s some nice looking enhancement if it’s falling as all snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 On 11/15/2021 at 12:19 AM, TugHillMatt said: Hanging in the upper 30s here. Wish that colder air in Southern Onondaga would seep on in here. Some mangled flakes mixed with rain. Looking forward to seeing some snow pics, WNY guys. Expand Here's what's up! The Sizzlecuse Express... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 On 11/15/2021 at 1:01 AM, Syrmax said: Here's what's up! Expand Lol. My gosh it's so annoying... Syracuse is so infuriating! Maybe we can get a retrograding low or two this winter that actually makes winter Interesting here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 On 11/15/2021 at 1:03 AM, TugHillMatt said: Lol. My gosh it's so annoying... Syracuse is so infuriating! Maybe we can get a retrograding low or two this winter that actually makes winter Interesting here! Expand We'll get ours. March and April figure to be Yuge! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 On 11/15/2021 at 12:19 AM, TugHillMatt said: Hanging in the upper 30s here. Wish that colder air in Southern Onondaga would seep on in here. Some mangled flakes mixed with rain. Looking forward to seeing some snow pics, WNY guys. Expand Has been snowing all day here. Grass is covered but pavement is just wet. Very wet snow. @tombo82685here is the cam at nighttime. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 On 11/15/2021 at 1:01 AM, Syrmax said: Here's what's up! The Sizzlecuse Express... Expand This is some @lakeeffectkid383 level map work. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 On 11/15/2021 at 1:03 AM, TugHillMatt said: Lol. My gosh it's so annoying... Syracuse is so infuriating! Maybe we can get a retrograding low or two this winter that actually makes winter Interesting here! Expand The reason why that looks so terrible, is well this is an elevation type event as usual in early season events. Syracuse region has one of the lowest elevations in the area. Aloft it's plenty cold enough to snow, but boundary layer temps are a pain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LakeEffectKing Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 First flakes here in Cazenovia. (1200') As wet as can be....37 degrees. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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