Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Just for fun… 

[Flying MXZ]

7 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

 

Damn that’s pretty!

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

Going to be close for some areas away from the lake and higher up.  Either way should be fun tracking what will likely be our first single dominant band setup of the season.  24 hour RGEM loop shows a nice dancing band Saturday into Sunday here.  Next few days could be interesting.  I'll be interested in checking the verification of the mesos on band placement and precip output to see whose hot and whose not for the season.  

[SouthBuffaloSteve]

BUF updated AFD:

Friday night and Saturday the vertically stacked low will gradually
push eastward with its axis reaching western Quebec and western New
England by early Saturday evening. Its approach will bring in cooler
air aloft, enough so to produce lake effect precipitation. Consensus
850mb temperatures drop to -5c across Lake Erie by 12Z Saturday. SSW
flow will direct most of the lake effect rain showers across Canada
and far eastern portions of Niagara and Erie counties Friday night.
A few rain or snow showers are possible across the rest of Western
New York, but any of these would be on the light side.

Fairly good model agreement that the stacked low and a strong
embedded shortwave will move across the area on Saturday. This will
provide moisture which will enhance lake effect precipitation, and
will also produce rain or snow showers further inland from the lakes
due to the shortwave. Flow will shift to the southwest which will
direct what should be a well developed band across the Buffalo metro
area on Saturday. Still a bit too warm aloft to support lake effect
snow, although wet snow or graupel could mix in times. Also added a
mention of thunder with this band. A less developed band will
develop off Lake Ontario and move across the St Lawrence and then
Jefferson County. Further inland it won`t have to be quite as cold
aloft to support snow, with rain or snow showers possible with the
shortwave. Any accumulation would be minimal with high temperatures
in the lower to mid 40s.

Models suggest winds will shift to the WSW Saturday night in the
wake of the shortwave. Precipitation will once again become mostly
lake effect, with bands likely to be centered across southern Erie
county and across the Tug Hill. Slightly cooler 850mb temps around
-6c could support some snow accumulation, especially across higher
terrain. Fairly high confidence there will be lake effect bands, but
low confidence in precipitation type due to the marginal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Bands of lake effect precipitation will start this period, with a
predominately southwest flow across the Eastern Great Lakes. This
will highlight precipitation along the Lake Erie shoreline, and
inland across the northern Niagara Frontier, as well as towards the
northern Tug Hill Sunday. Thermal profiles are marginal for snow,
with 850 hPa temperatures around -5 to -7C at periods start.

A shortwave from the northern Rockies will sharpen the east coast
mid level trough Sunday night and into Monday. Backing surface winds
will send lake precipitation northward...possibly entirely into
Canada by Monday morning, while all along more widespread synoptic
precipitation spreads over the region with the approaching
shortwave. Again thermal profiles are marginal for snow on
Monday...and not until the shortwave passes and flow becomes more
northwesterly later Monday and into Tuesday that temperatures aloft
will cool sufficiently for snow to be the predominate precipitation
type. By this time, the lake effect event will be winding down.

[BuffaloWeather]

42 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

Going to be close for some areas away from the lake and higher up.  Either way should be fun tracking what will likely be our first single dominant band setup of the season.  24 hour RGEM loop shows a nice dancing band Saturday into Sunday here.  Next few days could be interesting.  I'll be interested in checking the verification of the mesos on band placement and precip output to see whose hot and whose not for the season.  

This is the coldest frame during the entire event

[BuffaloWeather]

RGEM actually 1-2 degrees cooler

[Ericjcrash]

1 hour ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

BUF updated AFD:

Friday night and Saturday the vertically stacked low will gradually
push eastward with its axis reaching western Quebec and western New
England by early Saturday evening. Its approach will bring in cooler
air aloft, enough so to produce lake effect precipitation. Consensus
850mb temperatures drop to -5c across Lake Erie by 12Z Saturday. SSW
flow will direct most of the lake effect rain showers across Canada
and far eastern portions of Niagara and Erie counties Friday night.
A few rain or snow showers are possible across the rest of Western
New York, but any of these would be on the light side.

Fairly good model agreement that the stacked low and a strong
embedded shortwave will move across the area on Saturday. This will
provide moisture which will enhance lake effect precipitation, and
will also produce rain or snow showers further inland from the lakes
due to the shortwave. Flow will shift to the southwest which will
direct what should be a well developed band across the Buffalo metro
area on Saturday. Still a bit too warm aloft to support lake effect
snow, although wet snow or graupel could mix in times. Also added a
mention of thunder with this band. A less developed band will
develop off Lake Ontario and move across the St Lawrence and then
Jefferson County. Further inland it won`t have to be quite as cold
aloft to support snow, with rain or snow showers possible with the
shortwave. Any accumulation would be minimal with high temperatures
in the lower to mid 40s.

Models suggest winds will shift to the WSW Saturday night in the
wake of the shortwave. Precipitation will once again become mostly
lake effect, with bands likely to be centered across southern Erie
county and across the Tug Hill. Slightly cooler 850mb temps around
-6c could support some snow accumulation, especially across higher
terrain. Fairly high confidence there will be lake effect bands, but
low confidence in precipitation type due to the marginal
temperatures.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Bands of lake effect precipitation will start this period, with a
predominately southwest flow across the Eastern Great Lakes. This
will highlight precipitation along the Lake Erie shoreline, and
inland across the northern Niagara Frontier, as well as towards the
northern Tug Hill Sunday. Thermal profiles are marginal for snow,
with 850 hPa temperatures around -5 to -7C at periods start.

A shortwave from the northern Rockies will sharpen the east coast
mid level trough Sunday night and into Monday. Backing surface winds
will send lake precipitation northward...possibly entirely into
Canada by Monday morning, while all along more widespread synoptic
precipitation spreads over the region with the approaching
shortwave. Again thermal profiles are marginal for snow on
Monday...and not until the shortwave passes and flow becomes more
northwesterly later Monday and into Tuesday that temperatures aloft
will cool sufficiently for snow to be the predominate precipitation
type. By this time, the lake effect event will be winding down.

Sounds a lot like Oct 2006 if you ask me.

[Ericjcrash]

1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said:

RGEM actually 1-2 degrees cooler

Not often Richmond is significantly colder than Saranac lake.

[TugHillMatt]

24 minutes ago, Ericjcrash said:

Not often Richmond is significantly colder than Saranac lake.

The cooler air has undercut sooooooo many times this year. I can't believe how many times the Mid-Atlantic and even Southeast has been cooler than Upstate NY (especially stupid Sizzlecuse).

[Buckeyes_Suck]

4 hours ago, Ericjcrash said:

Sounds a lot like Oct 2006 if you ask me.

Yea now all we need is 850 temps to come in a couple degrees cooler than forecast and it will be deja vu. 

[Thinksnow18]

Looking at the 6z GFS does anyone else feel like you’re on a roller coaster? 3 days of cold, 3 days of warm, 3 cold, 3 warm…

[CNY_WX]

1 hour ago, Thinksnow18 said:

Looking at the 6z GFS does anyone else feel like you’re on a roller coaster? 3 days of cold, 3 days of warm, 3 cold, 3 warm…

I can’t help but feel this is getting to be our new norm. 

[Thinksnow18]

2 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

I can’t help but feel this is getting to be our new norm. 

I agree…sadly

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, CNY_WX said:

I can’t help but feel this is getting to be our new norm. 

agreed

[BuffaloWeather]

[rochesterdave]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

So it looks like La Niña is a lock. Here’s to hoping it’s weak to moderate. 

[wolfie09]

Latest ONI indicating Weak Nina as of now.. Running a little behind last year at the same time. 

[BuffaloWeather]

latest run of GFS trended a little colder again

[BuffaloWeather]

RGEM

[TugHillMatt]

This is our new norm because the Pacific Jet is always raging these days...polar Vortex loves to pop up just as we enter winter...the northern Atlantic is torching...the southeast ridge works alongside that... All of these just seem to be stuck in repeat mode.

But the Pacific...and that Pacific Jet...common issues this century.

[BuffaloWeather]

Buf: +1

Roc: -1

Wat: +1.5

Syr: +.6

[BuffaloWeather]

The 3km is showing snow now over BUF

[BuffaloWeather]

Same frame. Pretty cool as you can see the cooling of the atmosphere due to the intense rates on the models!

[BuffaloWeather]

Quite a few snow chances at GFS

[TugHillMatt]

7 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Quite a few snow chances at GFS

So, you're saying there's a chance....

 

[tombo82685]

38 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said:

This is our new norm because the Pacific Jet is always raging these days...polar Vortex loves to pop up just as we enter winter...the northern Atlantic is torching...the southeast ridge works alongside that... All of these just seem to be stuck in repeat mode.

But the Pacific...and that Pacific Jet...common issues this century.

and what plays a good role in controlling the pacific jet is the MJO. Last year the base state was in the IO, which isn't good. This year it looks to be in maritime continent which isn't good but it may be able allow better chance to get into money phases. Convection has stalled in maritme region as of late which has been the reason for pac jet being slop. Hoping it keeps pushing into 7-8-1 as we move past tgiving . When the MJO isn't in your favor you then look at the strat to see if you can get help from that. Luckily we have a strong wave 2 showing up just prior to tgiving week which I feel will deliver a good cold shot around Tgiving timeframe as I have been posting. 

[TugHillMatt]

11 minutes ago, tombo82685 said:

and what plays a good role in controlling the pacific jet is the MJO. Last year the base state was in the IO, which isn't good. This year it looks to be in maritime continent which isn't good but it may be able allow better chance to get into money phases. Convection has stalled in maritme region as of late which has been the reason for pac jet being slop. Hoping it keeps pushing into 7-8-1 as we move past tgiving . When the MJO isn't in your favor you then look at the strat to see if you can get help from that. Luckily we have a strong wave 2 showing up just prior to tgiving week which I feel will deliver a good cold shot around Tgiving timeframe as I have been posting. 

True indeed! The MJO has been in such awful states for consecutive winters as well.

[Buckeyes_Suck]

Accuweather going all in. 
 

https://news.yahoo.com/lake-effect-snow-machine-roar-173445124.html

[BuffaloWeather]

I can get used to this. 66 and sunny water temps have to be low 60s 

[BGM Blizzard]

Don't know if this outlook was posted sometime earlier in a thread, but this is the preliminary winter forecast from meteorologist Jim Sullivan (aka OHWeather here in American Wx forums) of Weather Works...