Upstate/Eastern New York-Into Winter!

[DeltaT13]

I’m putting my snow tires on this Thursday. Too many signals showing a significant SW event for Buffalo in the LR. I can’t miss one of these early season ones, they are usually the best ones.  

[DeltaT13]

44 minutes ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

How is the foliage for everyone else?  A lot of the maple trees near me are still pretty lush, finally seeing some change today after the recent freeze but can’t say I ever remember seeing the trees so full so deep into November.  Might not be a good thing it we end up seeing snow into this weekend. 

Yup, we are on the cusp of having a big problem. Lot of trees are completely green as we’ve only had a couple frosts thus far. It’ll take several weeks to get these leafs down. And this first possible event comes right on the heels of this Indian summer we are having so we won’t make up any ground in the coming days. 

[rochesterdave]

12 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said:

I’m putting my snow tires on this Thursday. Too many signals showing a significant SW event for Buffalo showing in the LR. I can’t miss one of these early season ones, they are usually the best ones.  

Agreed. It sure feels like ingredients are coming together for a classic SW event. I’ve never chased but I’m going to keep an eye on it! 

[TugHillMatt]

Wow, your foliage is waaaay behind ours. We lost many of ours over the past week. It was a pretty disappointing foliage season here, with the trees changing quickly and dropping their leaves in a few days. I think the ridiculously warm October stressed them.

[Syrmax]

On 11/7/2021 at 8:00 PM, BuffaloWeather said:

Welcome! Prepare for good ole fashion sizzle.

Welcome to the SizzleDome. 

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, TugHillMatt said:

Wow, your foliage is waaaay behind ours. We lost many of ours over the past week. It was a pretty disappointing foliage season here, with the trees changing quickly and dropping their leaves in a few days. I think the ridiculously warm October stressed them.

Full bloom here.

[BuffaloWeather]

This weekends event with marginal temps likely becomes a nowcasting event. Really not enough cold air to get confident in lower elevations.

[BuffaloWeather]

Officially started planning my trip to Alaska this coming summer. Last year I waited too long and rental car prices were insane. Also should be going to Thailand in March/April, excited to get back to some international travel!

[Syrmax]

3 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Officially started planning my trip to Alaska this coming summer. Last year I waited too long and rental car prices were insane. Also should be going to Thailand in March/April, excited to get back to some international travel!

Go soon while there are still a lot of people in their covid bunkers. With any luck they stay there so the rest of us have more elbow room.;)

[BGM Blizzard]

5 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said:

How is the foliage for everyone else?  A lot of the maple trees near me are still pretty lush, finally seeing some change today after the recent freeze but can’t say I ever remember seeing the trees so full so deep into November.  Might not be a good thing it we end up seeing snow into this weekend. 

Most trees are bare around here for past week+. But my parents house as well as mine have some maples that are notoriously late with their leaf turning, which I'm guessing has more to do with the variety of maple than anything else. But it's very annoying when it comes to winter-prep. There been plenty of years where we've had the first accumulating snowfall prior to being able to chop or rake the majority of the leaves. I'm giving it another week to 10 days and then converting the tractor over to winter ops.

[Flying MXZ]

6 hours ago, BGM Blizzard said:

Most trees are bare around here for past week+. But my parents house as well as mine have some maples that are notoriously late with their leaf turning, which I'm guessing has more to do with the variety of maple than anything else. But it's very annoying when it comes to winter-prep. There been plenty of years where we've had the first accumulating snowfall prior to being able to chop or rake the majority of the leaves. I'm giving it another week to 10 days and then converting the tractor over to winter ops.

Stick season in the Catskills, except for a couple Oaks hanging on.

[wolfie09]

At this juncture...the medium range model consensus continues to
suggest a prevailing southwesterly flow through Saturday...with the
flow then gradually becoming more westerly Saturday night and
Sunday. Off Lake Erie...this should result in fairly organized lake
effect developing northeast of the lake Friday night and continuing
through Saturday...before settling a bit further south to areas east
of the lake Saturday night and Sunday. Off Lake Ontario...an
initially more sheared/southerly low level flow should help to keep
any lake effect much more limited Friday night...with activity then
becoming better established across Jefferson county Saturday before
also settling southward and continuing to organize Saturday
night/Sunday as the fetch across the lake increases.

Initially...thermal profiles will be warm enough to lead to plain
rain showers off both lakes...but as these cool and become more
marginal for rain vs. snow...ptype will also become more of a
question mark...with this heavily dependent on the precipitation
intensity...time of day...and how cool aloft it gets. At this point
some accumulating snows are not out of the question...particularly
Saturday night and Sunday morning as the lake effect begins to
intersect the higher terrain...however it remains way too early to
attempt to pin down locations and amounts.

As we get out into the latter reaches of this period...the 00z
guidance suite continues to suggest the potential for some semblance
of a surface wave to pass near or just south of our region Sunday
night and Monday...in conjunction with the passage of the main upper
level trough axis. Such a development would likely at least
temporarily disrupt any lake effect via modulation of the low level
flow...while also bringing a more general chance of rain and snow
showers. Otherwise...temperatures will remain below normal through
early next week...with nighttime lows in the 30s and daytime highs
struggling to get above the lower to mid 40s.

 

[BuffaloWeather]

GFS still showing some snow but its just so close with temps, going to lean towards elevation dependent event or within the highest rates at nighttime.

[wolfie09]

Erie should be warm enough to jump in if needed.. 

[wolfie09]

Anticipated flow transition will lead to development and passage of an amplified upper trough over the central to eastern U.S. Friday/Saturday as a potent surface low lifts northeastward through the Midwest/Great Lakes into eastern Canada. An attendant cold front will sweep eastward across the East, favoring a swath of moderate to locally heavy rain as fueled by long fetch moisture influx from the Gulf of Mexico and the western Atlantic. The progressive nature of the front may limit runoff threat, but the best potential may be over favored terrain of interior New England. Enhanced wrap-around then lake effect snows are expected from the Upper Midwest/Great Lakes and into the northern Appalachians/Northeast. Cold air and return moisture flow with another potent upper shortwave/surface system digging into the Midwest/Great Lakes onward on the heels of the lead storm will favor local snows across the region.

[BuffaloWeather]

15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said:

Erie should be warm enough to jump in if needed.. 

Eries so warm I could still go swimming in there along the shorelines. 

[BuffaloWeather]

Has anyone ever gone tubing? I've never done it once and want to get into it this year. 

[BuffaloWeather]

[lakeeffectkid383]

28 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Has anyone ever gone tubing? I've never done it once and want to get into it this year. 

Used to go to Colden tubing (at kissing bridge) all the time. It was an absolute blast with a great lodge at the bottom to warm up and get hot chocolate and sit by a fire. Had a lift to bring you back up to the top so you didn’t even have to walk. Unfortunately they closed for good about 5 years ago and I’m not sure of any other places like that. 

[BuffaloWeather]

32 minutes ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Used to go to Colden tubing (at kissing bridge) all the time. It was an absolute blast with a great lodge at the bottom to warm up and get hot chocolate and sit by a fire. Had a lift to bring you back up to the top so you didn’t even have to walk. Unfortunately they closed for good about 5 years ago and I’m not sure of any other places like that. 

Doesn't holiday valley do it? 

[CNY-LES FREAK]

Howdy Y'all, So it looks like places last week saw their first flakes of the season especially the Tug, obviously, but not for the lower elevations East of Ontario but were definitely off to a decent start! Perhaps 2021 can deliver the goods. With a much weakened Arctic PV and a predominantly Easterly flow, blocking can become a big deal around these parts. I don't recall such a normal transition from Summer--->Fall--->into Winter in quite a long time. Storm track seems to be dropping a but sooner this yr compared to many past Winters. The past several years we've seen 70's and sometimes 80's well into October and 70's into November but not this year, Thank God! The Potential exists for some good ones this year so we'll see!

Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk

[lakeeffectkid383]

The 12z GFS looks somewhat worse for lake effect just doesn’t have as cold of temps and less moisture with winds veering WSW and then even W more quickly. Thinking this is going to be some lake effect rain/mix at lower elevations with maybe some accumulating snow over the higher elevations south of BUF as winds shift more WSW and W and boundary layer temps drop Saturday night but not expecting much at my place or any of the lower elevations as of now. Still far out and things can obviously change for the better (or worse) as we’re still not even in the range of the mesoscale models but just a step in the wrong direction IMO. 

[vortmax]

This was my backyard yesterday. Oak, Mulberry, black walnut, black cherry...they are holding strong.

[Thinksnow18]

2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Doesn't holiday valley do it? 

Yep!!! Went last year with the family…was incredible 

[BuffaloWeather]

2 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

The 12z GFS looks somewhat worse for lake effect just doesn’t have as cold of temps and less moisture with winds veering WSW and then even W more quickly. Thinking this is going to be some lake effect rain/mix at lower elevations with maybe some accumulating snow over the higher elevations south of BUF as winds shift more WSW and W and boundary layer temps drop Saturday night but not expecting much at my place or any of the lower elevations as of now. Still far out and things can obviously change for the better (or worse) as we’re still not even in the range of the mesoscale models but just a step in the wrong direction IMO. 

All aboard the UK 

[BGM Blizzard]

Euro has a nice wave for the Catskills and ADK regions Saturday night. Seems to be on an island though and temps are marginal.

[BuffaloWeather]

Initially, thermal profiles will be warm enough to lead to plain
rain showers off both lakes, but as these cool and become more
marginal for rain vs. snow. With the 12Z guidance suite continuing
to trend a degree or two warmer, think most of the precipitation
that will fall will mainly be in the form of rain, however a few wet
flakes may be possible.

[lakeeffectkid383]

Just now, BuffaloWeather said:

Initially, thermal profiles will be warm enough to lead to plain
rain showers off both lakes, but as these cool and become more
marginal for rain vs. snow. With the 12Z guidance suite continuing
to trend a degree or two warmer, think most of the precipitation
that will fall will mainly be in the form of rain, however a few wet
flakes may be possible.

Weak sauce. Wake me up when we have a legit chance at 6”+. 

[BuffaloWeather]

1 minute ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Weak sauce. Wake me up when we have a legit chance at 6”+. 

If it isn't going to snow, give me the Sizzle. 

[BuffaloWeather]

6 hours ago, lakeeffectkid383 said:

Used to go to Colden tubing (at kissing bridge) all the time. It was an absolute blast with a great lodge at the bottom to warm up and get hot chocolate and sit by a fire. Had a lift to bring you back up to the top so you didn’t even have to walk. Unfortunately they closed for good about 5 years ago and I’m not sure of any other places like that. 

We're going here this winter