Thinksnow18 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 10 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Perrysburg Damn ‘13-‘14 for the win…and then there is last years, that’s insane!!! Almost makes me wonder if TugHill moved there… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 7 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: Damn ‘13-‘14 for the win…and then there is last years, that’s insane!!! Almost makes me wonder if TugHill moved there… 1999-2004 were really high snowfall years, so that average is likely a little higher if those were included. Around 210". I had over 210" here back in 2014-2015. 88" in one storm helped out a lot but we just had an insane lake effect season that entire year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 22 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: 1999-2004 were really high snowfall years, so that average is likely a little higher if those were included. Around 210". I had over 210" here back in 2014-2015. 88" in one storm helped out a lot but we just had an insane lake effect season that entire year. Yea that was a good year for most of WNY. Hopefully With a strong start to lake effect season we can all cash in early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 Some great Friday reading right here. https://www.wkbw.com/weather/2021-2022-winter-weather-outlook?fbclid=IwAR0EsdlQsxzYppFuP7VMuW633yc9-MGCsc5sxvtVI7P1xM5BXsx9ktNUqbE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 I talked about these stats earlier but never in this much detail. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 The warm October stat is really interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 Took me 10 minutes to scrap my car off this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 BUF at -2.9 ROC at -5.2 WAT at -2.0 Someone needs to check ROC thermometer. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 Saturday Sunny, with a high near 51. Sunday Sunny, with a high near 56. Monday Sunny, with a high near 61. Tuesday Mostly sunny, with a high near 60. Wednesday Partly sunny, with a high near 54. Veterans Day Mostly cloudy, with a high near 58. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 29 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Some great Friday reading right here. https://www.wkbw.com/weather/2021-2022-winter-weather-outlook?fbclid=IwAR0EsdlQsxzYppFuP7VMuW633yc9-MGCsc5sxvtVI7P1xM5BXsx9ktNUqbE Great read. Would love a huge season this year. Anything over 130-140” in Derby would be epic! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 3 hours ago, Syrmax said: Much less than it used to. There's a reason for that... If we get another 100 < inch winter, there is no denying the snow abyss that exists over my head... haha! 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Took me 10 minutes to scrap my car off this morning. Your poor car! Where did you take all the separate pieces? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Took me 10 minutes to scrap my car off this morning. I rode my bicycle to work (not unusual, that's how I go to work most days). It was spectacular. The combination of heavy frost and ice fog had coated the fields and trees in glimmering crystals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 This is channel 9’s winter outlook for Syracuse https://www.localsyr.com/winter-outlook-2021/storm-team-2021-22-winter-outlook/ Bottom line is above average temperatures and near normal snowfall which is 127 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 minute ago, cny rider said: I rode my bicycle to work (not unusual, that's how I go to work most days). It was spectacular. The combination of heavy frost and ice fog had coated the fields and trees in glimmering crystals. How far is your ride? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 2 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: This is channel 9’s winter outlook for Syracuse https://www.localsyr.com/winter-outlook-2021/storm-team-2021-22-winter-outlook/ Bottom line is above average temperatures and near normal snowfall which is 127 inches. Hard to go against above normal temperatures, especially in Sizzlecuse 2000. 130 to 140 inches after the past couple winters will seem like LOTS of snow. Well, it is a great amount of snow. Crazy to think that's 50 inches more than we've picked up the past couple years! Hopefully those cold outbreaks will last a decent while and/or the "above average" will because of mild 30s that snowpack can survive in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 A tranquil and mild period will last through the first half of next week as a strong ridge builds into the Southeast States and Ohio Valley. The ridge axis will cross the eastern Great Lakes Monday, with 850MB temps peaking at around 10C. This will support highs in the lower 60s for lower elevations with a good deal of sunshine. The ridge will then be flattened by a shortwave moving along the US/Canadian border later Tuesday and Tuesday night, with an associated weak cold front dropping south across the area. This front may produce a few spotty light showers Tuesday night into early Wednesday morning. The front will also bring temperatures down a notch for Wednesday, with highs in the low to mid 50s. The ridge axis surface and aloft will then drift towards the east coast by Thursday as a deep trough carves out over the central CONUS. Warm advection downstream of the trough will bring an increase in clouds by Thursday and perhaps a chance of a few light showers, but overall preference lies with the slower 00Z ECMWF solution which would delay the better rain chances until Friday. && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Well GFS still shows something mid month..That's about it for now lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 15 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Well GFS still shows something mid month..That's about it for now lol Couple of the models have a cutter with just enough cold air behind for some LES. Would be a marginal event for lower elevations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 WIVB put their winter forecast out I believe on Wednesday and they were forecasting above normal snowfall and average to slightly above avg temps during December-February. Looks like most are looking at the historical data regarding the warm October’s, the second year of La Niña and the already weak PV. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Welcome to the forum! You average more snow than everyone except 2 posters up in the UP of Michigan. Thank you! Hopefully I bring some good luck up with me to everyone 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 4 hours ago, Flying MXZ said: Can't be too far from Miller's Meat Market. Check that out for sure. Believe it’s like a mile from me. Love some fresh steak on the grill hoping NNY microbrew selection is as strong as sepa Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 43 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: How far is your ride? 7.5 miles. We live up on a hill. The first 1.5 miles drops 400 feet vertical. So it's a quick ride to work but a slog to get home. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Is most of the snow LE? Or do you get a fair share of synoptic too? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 9 minutes ago, tombo82685 said: Is most of the snow LE? Or do you get a fair share of synoptic too? Not sure about your way, but for Buffalo its about 50/50. 50% lake effect/enhanced 50% synoptic. Depending on the season that can change dramatically. One big event and its 70-80% LES and 20-30% synoptic. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 20 minutes ago, Thinksnow18 said: WIVB put their winter forecast out I believe on Wednesday and they were forecasting above normal snowfall and average to slightly above avg temps during December-February. Looks like most are looking at the historical data regarding the warm October’s, the second year of La Niña and the already weak PV. Pretty much the exact forecast I had back in September. I also thought the same last year and was off though. We didn't do terrible though despite the really warm temps in Nov-Jan. Usually in Ninas the winter starts early and ends late, the exact opposite happened last year. Sometimes these things make no sense. 2019-2020 had zero good LES events here. Nov: +5.8 Dec: +3.4 Jan: +4.5 Feb: -1.6 Mar:+6.3 I was able to get over 100" with those temps with a few really good LES events. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 5, 2021 Author Share Posted November 5, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 5 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Dude the last couple runs of CFS are gangbusters cold the rest of November after this next week of milder temps. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 CMC at the end of it's run.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Fwiw, euro weeklies last night held into a nice normal to below normal pattern with some high latitude blocking but mainly a favorable pacific 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tombo82685 Posted November 5, 2021 Share Posted November 5, 2021 Finally some color down here in sepa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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