Syrmax Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 9 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Hey, I just perused some of the off-topic discussions. Yeah, I can understand now why that person is no longer a moderator. Yikes. Also, some of the other "moderators" that post on there...I'm disgusted by their behavior and bullying tactics. They really should lose their "tags" as well. I'm so glad we don't have a power-tripping moderator on our sub that tries to dictate others and bully them around. I love our Subforum! Toxic-free, other than when a few of those individuals troll our banter thread. We troll you for entertainment! Sizzle Sizzle... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CNY_WX Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 6 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: First lake effect bust of the season. Couldn't even muster a dusting...or even flakes? Sun shining even under radar returns... Maybe we'll get a graupel pellet. Lol What did you really expect this early in the season down here on the lake plain? It was pretty obvious the bulk of the lake effect was going stay north of here and our temperatures were just too warm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Beautiful morning though. I have a nice Fall color picture, but it keeps telling me it's too big even after cropping multiple times. Just picture multiple fall colors. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 8 minutes ago, CNY_WX said: What did you really expect this early in the season down here on the lake plain? It was pretty obvious the bulk of the lake effect was going stay north of here and our temperatures were just too warm. It was musings about the start of lake effect season. I'm not disappointed much at all...not surprised at all as I could tell from radar last night it was waaay north. Many more of these to come...and hopefully some nice surprises. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 It's winter awareness week.. Heavy snow can immobilize a region and paralyze a city, stranding commuters, closing airports, stopping the flow of supplies and disrupting services. Accumulations of snow can cause roofs to collapse and knock down trees and power lines. Homes and farms may be isolated for days. The cost of snow removal, repairing damages, and the loss of business can have severe economic impacts on cities and towns. Heavy snow in Western and Northern New York is defined as 7 inches or more falling in a 12 hour period, or 9 inches or more falling in a 24 hour period. Most heavy snow in Western and Northern New York is caused by lake effect. As arctic air sweeps across the relatively warm waters of Lakes Erie and Ontario, heavy snow forms and falls downstream. Snowfall rates can exceed 4 inches an hour which is enough to overwhelm most snow removal crews and equipment. Strong winds often accompany lake effect snow which cause deep drifts and reduce visibility. Heavy snow can also fall as the result of large storms called Nor Easters which move up the Atlantic Coast. Whereas lake effect snow usually falls in narrow bands, snow from Nor Easters can blanket thousands of square miles. Looking back at the historical record, Western and Northern New York has had its share of dangerous winter storms. One only has to remember back to November of 2014 to be reminded how dangerous early season winter storms can be when about seven feet of snow fell across the southern parts of the Niagara Frontier. Snow fell at the rate of three to six inches per hour. As is often the case with many of our heavy lake effect snow events, thunder and lightning accompanied the intense lake effect snow. Among all storms, the Blizzard of 1977 ranks as one of the worst. While only about a foot of snow fell from January 28th to February 1st, wind gusts up to 75 miles an hour in Niagara Falls and 69 miles an hour in Buffalo whipped up snow drifts over 20 feet deep, nearly topping telephone poles. Thousands of people were stranded away from their homes as roads became clogged and impassable. Twenty-nine people died, many frozen to death in their buried cars. President Carter proclaimed a federal disaster over a seven county area. People living in and around Rochester will not soon forget the Blizzard of March 4, 1999. Over two feet of snow accompanied by strong winds forced the closing of the New York State Thruway and the stranding of thousands of motorists. The National Guard was called on to help remove cars and rescue the motorists. Power outages affected over 10,000 customers. You can always get the latest information on threatening winter storms, 24 hours a day, by tuning into NOAA weather radio the voice of the National Weather Service. The National Weather Service encourages you to prepare now for heavy snows and the effects it may have on the region.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 “Most heavy snow in Western and Northern New York is caused by lake effect. “- is this true? I feel like this isn’t the case at all for Rochester. Most of our heavy snow events are synoptic with some added LES. Headlines (that verify) are almost always synoptic. The quote may be true for Buffalo. It seems like the NWS bias is still there. Lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Now we sit and wait lol Next 7-10 days looks tranquil..HP dominating the eastern seaboard.. A little warm up in store.. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 51. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 55 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 2 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Now we sit and wait lol Next 7-10 days looks tranquil..HP dominating the eastern seaboard.. A little warm up in store.. Friday Mostly sunny, with a high near 46. Calm wind becoming west 5 to 7 mph in the morning. Friday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 31. Saturday Sunny, with a high near 51. Saturday Night Partly cloudy, with a low around 32. Sunday Mostly sunny, with a high near 52. Sunday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 37. Monday Partly sunny, with a high near 53. Monday Night Mostly cloudy, with a low around 39. Tuesday Partly sunny, with a high near 55 Might as well be dry and mild while we do...loving that forecast. We don't want the real cold stuff coming down until late Nov thru Dec... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 .New York... ...Allegany County... Alfred 0.6 in 0600 AM 11/03 COOP West Almond 3.6 SW 0.5 in 0800 AM 11/03 COCORAHS ...Cattaraugus County... Cattaraugus 3W 2.6 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP Little Valley 1.0 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP Randolph 1.1 ENE 1.0 in 0730 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Ischua 0.4 SSE 0.5 in 0700 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Olean 0.3 in 0730 AM 11/03 COOP Franklinville 0.5 NNE 0.2 in 0728 AM 11/03 COCORAHS ...Chautauqua County... Gerry 0.8 N 3.8 in 0745 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Kennedy 2.6 SE 1.8 in 0800 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Mayville 0.2 ESE 0.5 in 0700 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Dewittville 1.0 SSE 0.4 in 0600 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Falconer 0.3 WSW 0.3 in 0700 AM 11/03 COCORAHS ...Erie County... 3 ENE Holland 1.5 in 0630 AM 11/03 Public Boston 2.5 NE 1.2 in 0700 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Colden 1.4 NNW 0.7 in 0730 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Colden 1W 0.7 in 0730 AM 11/03 COOP ...Jefferson County... Worth 4.0 in 1000 AM 11/03 Trained Spotter ...Lewis County... Highmarket 2W 2.2 in 0600 AM 11/03 COOP Chases Lake 0.5 in 0600 AM 11/03 COOP ...Orleans County... Lakeside 0.5 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP ...Oswego County... Lacona 3.6 SSE 1.2 in 0600 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Mexico 2SW 0.1 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP Minetto 0.1 SE 0.1 in 0800 AM 11/03 COCORAHS ...Wyoming County... Warsaw 6SW 1.2 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP Warsaw 4W 1.0 in 0630 AM 11/03 COOP Silver Springs 3N 0.9 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP Portageville 1W 0.3 in 0726 AM 11/03 COOP && Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 So I've noticed for what ever reason the pulaski spotter reports their precipitation amounts a day later.. Just like today they reported 0.04" while the rest of the reports were 0.35"-0.40", I bet that shows up tomorrow This was for the end of October rain event.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 13 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: So I've noticed for what ever reason the pulaski spotter reports their precipitation amounts a day later.. Just like today they reported 0.04" while the rest of the reports were 0.35"-0.40", I bet that shows up tomorrow This was for the end of October rain event.. They’ve been driving you a little nuts lately. Lol. See if you can find their house. ‘Educate’ them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Carolyns up to 9” already! 6” in the last 4 hours. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 3, 2021 Author Share Posted November 3, 2021 1 hour ago, wolfie09 said: .New York... ...Allegany County... Alfred 0.6 in 0600 AM 11/03 COOP West Almond 3.6 SW 0.5 in 0800 AM 11/03 COCORAHS ...Cattaraugus County... Cattaraugus 3W 2.6 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP Little Valley 1.0 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP Randolph 1.1 ENE 1.0 in 0730 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Ischua 0.4 SSE 0.5 in 0700 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Olean 0.3 in 0730 AM 11/03 COOP Franklinville 0.5 NNE 0.2 in 0728 AM 11/03 COCORAHS ...Chautauqua County... Gerry 0.8 N 3.8 in 0745 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Kennedy 2.6 SE 1.8 in 0800 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Mayville 0.2 ESE 0.5 in 0700 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Dewittville 1.0 SSE 0.4 in 0600 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Falconer 0.3 WSW 0.3 in 0700 AM 11/03 COCORAHS ...Erie County... 3 ENE Holland 1.5 in 0630 AM 11/03 Public Boston 2.5 NE 1.2 in 0700 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Colden 1.4 NNW 0.7 in 0730 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Colden 1W 0.7 in 0730 AM 11/03 COOP ...Jefferson County... Worth 4.0 in 1000 AM 11/03 Trained Spotter ...Lewis County... Highmarket 2W 2.2 in 0600 AM 11/03 COOP Chases Lake 0.5 in 0600 AM 11/03 COOP ...Orleans County... Lakeside 0.5 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP ...Oswego County... Lacona 3.6 SSE 1.2 in 0600 AM 11/03 COCORAHS Mexico 2SW 0.1 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP Minetto 0.1 SE 0.1 in 0800 AM 11/03 COCORAHS ...Wyoming County... Warsaw 6SW 1.2 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP Warsaw 4W 1.0 in 0630 AM 11/03 COOP Silver Springs 3N 0.9 in 0700 AM 11/03 COOP Portageville 1W 0.3 in 0726 AM 11/03 COOP && 3.8" was highest I could find in Southern Tier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Look at some of these months in the 2000s, pretty much what we get a season now lol January/Feb 2008.. Probably the most impressive event for pulaski was in Feb 2008 as around 50" fell in 18hours or so.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 3, 2021 Author Share Posted November 3, 2021 37 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Look at some of these months in the 2000s, pretty much what we get a season now lol January/Feb 2008.. Probably the most impressive event for pulaski was in Feb 2008 as around 50" fell in 18hours or so.. Didn't even know about this event. An average of almost 3" per hour for 18 hours wow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Syrmax Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 3 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: It was musings about the start of lake effect season. I'm not disappointed much at all...not surprised at all as I could tell from radar last night it was waaay north. Many more of these to come...and hopefully some nice surprises. I saw some wet flakes mixed in for a few minutes. Enough for a 'T' in my report tomorrow. There, done for November. Next stop...SizzleMas! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 1 hour ago, Syrmax said: I saw some wet flakes mixed in for a few minutes. Enough for a 'T' in my report tomorrow. There, done for November. Next stop...SizzleMas! Yeah, same here. I've seen a few graupel/snow showers this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Weather starts to become more active as we head into mid month, at least according to the last few runs of the GFS.. Doesn't mean snow, just active lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 I have flaked as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Shortwave trough digs across later tonight all while inversion heights (5-7kft) and temps aloft (H85 temps around -7c falling to around -8c) remain sufficient for lake effect to continue. Expect scattered rain showers this afternoon to transition back to lake effect tonight. Forecast soundings show flow in the lake convective layer westerly so areas east of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario will be favored most of the night, before winds become light setting up sharper convergence zones/lake effect bands that will eventually shift the lake effect closer to the lakeshores on both Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Given H85 temps down to -7c or -8c, ptype after sunset will be snow except for right along the immediate lakeshores. Snow amounts tonight will depend on if bands can persist for any longer duration, but seems that at least a couple inches will fall over western Southern Tier and east of Lake Ontario, especially over the Tug Hill with westerly upslope flow. At the high end, could see 4 inches on the Tug Hill tonight but this will depend how quickly the lake effect gets going again this evening. Away from the areas experiencing lake effect, chilly night with winds becoming light. Lows where it can clear out will fall into the mid to upper 20s. On Thursday, lake effect will be pinned closer to the eastern shore of Lake Erie and impacting southeast and eastern shorelines of Lake Ontario. Ptype with the lake effect will be mix of rain snow in the morning before changing to rain by afternoon. Given temps only as low as mid 30s where lake effect will be ongoing in the morning, expect minimal snow amounts to start the day. With trough overhead Thursday, expect expanding stratocu clouds with heating of the day. Winds will be light again but temps will also stay on the chilly side with readings a few degrees warmer than what is occurring this afternoon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cny rider Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 We just scored first flakes here as a vigorous but brief snow shower rolled through. Now on to bigger things! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Heavy Graupel and flakes at home in Evans again. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 Yeah same here, minus the flakes haha.. Pouring graupel out as the lake is starting to fire up somewhat.. Temp is down to 34° which is 9° colder than this time yesterday.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vortmax Posted November 3, 2021 Share Posted November 3, 2021 My Tempest recorded a bunch of lightning strikes last night. Looking like it may happen again tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Kp index just hit 7 which means northern lights should be visible on the northern horizon. Lake clouds are certainly and issue though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 4 minutes ago, DeltaT13 said: Kp index just hit 7 which means northern lights should be visible on the northern horizon. Lake clouds are certainly and issue though. Is it normal to have all those solar events? Maybe I just never paid attention before but seems like this is happening every few nights lately? For viewing looks like we might have a little void in the clouds for a bit if it decides to show up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 4, 2021 Author Share Posted November 4, 2021 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Flying MXZ Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Walking around yesterday afternoon I still had ice in a wheelbarrow in a sheltered area. Low of 26 (I think) and snow showers apparently kept it around. Thermometer not in a good spot to get accurate high temps. Got down to 21 this morning. Looking forward to the dry stretch coming up! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeltaT13 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 10 hours ago, SouthBuffaloSteve said: Is it normal to have all those solar events? Maybe I just never paid attention before but seems like this is happening every few nights lately? For viewing looks like we might have a little void in the clouds for a bit if it decides to show up. Solar cycle 25 is ramping up. Still several years away from peak but we just left one of the deepest solar minimums of our life time. It’s an 11 year cycle so it’s a long haul (basically had 4 straight years without a sunspot). We had an active (complex magnetic fields) sunspot traverse the earth facing side of the sun over the last week which gave us these couple opportunities. It’s calming down again as it’s moving around to the backside of the sun now; but I’m thankful we’ll have some regular action over the next 3 years or so. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 4, 2021 Share Posted November 4, 2021 Starting to see a few flakes in the air as this band continues to tease us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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