TugHillMatt Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said: Will see how much this changes by end of month, it also showed Nov. being below Perhaps a good Alberta Clipper track... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 hour ago, TugHillMatt said: Perhaps a good Alberta Clipper track... Honestly, that’s what Syracuse needs. A good, locked in period of cold with NW flow. Obviously, it’s been a few years. You’re due buddy! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 1 hour ago, rochesterdave said: Honestly, that’s what Syracuse needs. A good, locked in period of cold with NW flow. Obviously, it’s been a few years. You’re due buddy! Thanks, Dave! I sure hope so. In browsing winter threads from other winters this decade, I really want to see one of these events where the low sits off the New England coast and the Syracuse area gets hours and hours and hours of lake effect/enhanced snowfall on NW or WNW winds. Those are the ones that seem to drop 2 to 5 feet in this area over a few days time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 Pretty good band of lake enhance precip across the southern tier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 1 hour ago, BuffaloWeather said: Pretty good band of lake enhance precip across the southern tier Temps in the 30s and radar "precip type" would indicate there may be some snowflakes, especially out towards Warsaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lakeeffectkid383 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Heavy grapple and first flakes if the year here. Big fat wet ones mixing the the grapple. Got a mile to my north right now and nothing at all. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 7 hours ago, TugHillMatt said: Temps in the 30s and radar "precip type" would indicate there may be some snowflakes, especially out towards Warsaw. A little bit of white on top of Mardi Gras 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 1 hour ago, lakeeffectkid383 said: Heavy grapple and first flakes if the year here. Big fat wet ones mixing the the grapple. Got a mile to my north right now and nothing at all. Congrats! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Hrrr has the smallest band here tomorrow afternoon lol Actually under the band it's 33°-35° surrounded by low-mid 40s.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Great picture of Buffalo from near Crystal Beach about an hour ago. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ericjcrash Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 7 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Hrrr has the smallest band here tomorrow afternoon lol Actually under the band it's 33°-35° surrounded by low-mid 40s.. Congrats maybe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Looks like it will be our last shot at first flakes for a while.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 I think we see a roller coaster month with every week being different. This week cold, next week warm, 3rd week cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 More of an accumulating snow concern develops tonight for the higher terrain east of the lakes. Extreme instability develops tonight with lake induced equilibrium levels up to nearly 25K feet with LICAPES values near 1500 J/Kg. This degree of instability will generate healthy convective bands off the lakes. Mesoscale models showing a pretty decent QPF signal on the order of a half inch or more. 850 mb temperatures dropping to near -8C will be plenty cold enough for interior sections to be all snow. If confidence of a steady state nature of the band orientation was higher, might be inclined to consider headlines for this event. However, initial westerly flow regime quickly veers northwesterly overnight and this reorientation of the flow/bands could limit snowfall potential. Despite this, parameters would suggest a fairly high likelihood for the first accumulating snowfall for some of the higher terrain east of the lakes, possibly in the 2-4/3-5" range. Snow-to-liquid ratios likely on the wetter side something in the 8-10:1 range. How much snow gets "lost" as it melts is almost always an unknown, but once we get a coating to build off of we will be good to go. Will continue to mention the accumulating snow risk for the higher terrain in the HWO products, although later shifts may need to consider a headline, if better confidence can be gained. Cyclonic flow continues across the eastern Great Lakes through Thursday night. A combination of scattered showers and lake effect showers will be ongoing Wednesday morning as a shortwave trough crosses the region. Most precipitation will be snow early Wednesday morning as temperatures cool to near freezing tonight. Rain showers are expected along the lake shores. If showers occur, snow showers are possible across the lake plains including Buffalo and Rochester Metros Wednesday morning. Temperatures will climb into the 40s by Wednesday afternoon and any snow showers will transition to rain showers. Only trace amounts of snow are expected across the lower elevations with a dusting possible across the higher terrain Wednesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thinksnow18 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 21 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: I think we see a roller coaster month with every week being different. This week cold, next week warm, 3rd week cold. Seems right…and if the GFS is cooking up what it’s been showing for that 3rd week, it is in line with some of Buffalo’s early season big LES events…oh we had graupel in Lancaster this am on Broadway and up Bowen to William…then in the jobsite on transit in Elma 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rochesterdave Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 42 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Looks like it will be our last shot at first flakes for a while.. It’s just a riot to me how these flip-flop around. Wasn’t it just a week ago that we were all excited for a great November? Lol. Always interesting. A good reminder to never take these LR products too seriously. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Barns corners 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 50 minutes ago, rochesterdave said: It’s just a riot to me how these flip-flop around. Wasn’t it just a week ago that we were all excited for a great November? Lol. Always interesting. A good reminder to never take these LR products too seriously. I warned everyone the warmth was going to prevail. Heck, we continue to get 3 to 5 degrees above forecasted highs pretty much every day...unless the clouds are thick as can be and block as much blazing sunlight as possible. Hopefully the "roller coaster" we are entering is the start of a change from the endless warm weeks and months and a transition to a more "normal" temp regime...I won't even wish for slightly below normal, as that seems so unrealistic anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, wolfie09 said: Barns corners Looks like wet snow/slush on Lowville live webcam: https://linkinglewiscounty.com/Live-Traffic-Weather-Cam-South-State-Street-Lowville.html 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Not much action on my sub anymore been a away myself for a bit thought I would send out a pic of what's headed your way, been getting hammered the last few hours, about 5" so far still coming down. 4 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Not much action on my sub anymore been a away myself for a bit thought I would send out a pic of what's headed your way, been getting hammered the last few hours, about 5" so far still coming down. Nice! My friends in West Michigan are reporting snow this morning. Not on the ground, but falling. I have noticed the Lakes forum has been quieter lately. What's going on over there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Not much action on my sub anymore been a away myself for a bit thought I would send out a pic of what's headed your way, been getting hammered the last few hours, about 5" so far still coming down. Good stuff Josh, you're always welcome here! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BGM Blizzard Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Montague getting some good snow 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, TugHillMatt said: Nice! My friends in West Michigan are reporting snow this morning. Not on the ground, but falling. I have noticed the Lakes forum has been quieter lately. What's going on over there? Hey Matt , not sure where everyone went all LES guys are pretty much gone in the GL Sub. Your sub seems way more active especially pertaining to LES belts. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
josh_4184 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 6 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Good stuff Josh, you're always welcome here! Hey Buffalo, how have things been? Ill poke around every now and then, hopefully all the LES areas cash in this year as last year was brutal, my area set a record low for snowfall around 77". Not quite sure what to think about this years potential, but the low bar was set last year that's for sure. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 8 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Hey Matt , not sure where everyone went all LES guys are pretty much gone in the GL Sub. Your sub seems way more active especially pertaining to LES belts. Yeah, we are a bunch of LES weenies here...lol. My previous username on here was "blackrock" and I lived in the Muskegon/Spring Lake area. So I represented that little part of West Michigan. Lake effect snow has been greatly lacking in that area this decade, so maybe some have lost interest. In fact the average snowfall has dropped nearly 20 inches there! As buffalowx said, you are definitely welcome here, and many would probably enjoy talking with you during future events about how factors up in your area might aide in things down wind here. I love Gaylord...my wife and I almost moved there, but it "was too far north for her." Hmph. Wives. Lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SouthBuffaloSteve Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Ready for some action! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted November 2, 2021 Author Share Posted November 2, 2021 10 minutes ago, josh_4184 said: Hey Buffalo, how have things been? Ill poke around every now and then, hopefully all the LES areas cash in this year as last year was brutal, my area set a record low for snowfall around 77". Not quite sure what to think about this years potential, but the low bar was set last year that's for sure. Things have been good, had lots of health issues the last year but other than that doing okay. I had a little over 100" last year with a few good events in my backyard and some great chasable events, especially the one in February. I went above average for this year as we haven't bad 3 below average years in a row since the 1980s. Looks like you're off to a good start. Would be awesome to get another LES poster in here for the winter. The only lake we're missing here is superior as we have some canadian posters for Huron LES. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 4 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said: Things have been good, had lots of health issues the last year but other than that doing okay. I had a little over 100" last year with a few good events in my backyard and some great chasable events, especially the one in February. I went above average for this year as we haven't bad 3 below average years in a row since the 1980s. Looks like you're off to a good start. Would be awesome to get another LES poster in here for the winter. The only lake we're missing here is superior as we have some canadian posters for Huron LES. Fake news. We get Bo on here every once in a great while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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