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November Banter 2021


George BM
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Forecast Discussion

November 24 2021 1:53PM EST

A late November 1950-like storm is beginning to take shape as the strong ridge of high pressure that built up over western North America is forcing a deep trough with arctic air southwards from the Arctic and into the region this afternoon accompanied by a strong shortwave riding the polar jet stream. At the same time a healthy southern stream system is currently moving off the Carolina coastline. These two systems will phase with each other over the next 24 hours or so leading to explosive deepening of the coastal low during that time. In fact, most models have the low deepening from 1001mb as of 18z (1pm local time) to near 950mb by 18z tomorrow when the low will be centered over the Delmarva peninsula. This will be a high to extreme impact event for the entire region.

 

Through tonight:

Snow showers will start to develop over the towards dusk as an increasing S/SErly flow aloft brings in moisture over the colder airmass. Temperatures will fall through the 30’s and into the 20’s by 00z. As the night wears on, snow and wind will increase in intensity as temps fall into the teens. A Blizzard Warning will go into effect at 8z when winds will start to frequently gust over 35mph with snowfall rates surpassing 2”/hr leading to visibility dropping to below a quarter mile.

 

Thanksgiving Day and night:

This will be a very memorable day weather-wise. Temperatures will stay in the lower 10’s along and west of I-95, perhaps even dropping into the upper single digits towards the 1-81 corridor leading to wind chills near 10 to 15 below zero. There will be a sharp temperature gradient probably greatest over the Chesapeake Bay with temps along the western shore not getting above the lower 20’s while temps over the Delmarva get well up into the 40’s to perhaps the lower 50’s with precip becoming all rain in that region during the day. For the rest of the region, however, extremely heavy snowfall and damaging winds will be the main story. With the warmer than normal western Atlantic waters and the very impressive dynamics of the storm, liquid equivalent rates may get as high as 0.5-0.75”/hr. With strong lift through the DGZ layer (~ -12 to -18C) snow to liquid equivalent ratios will be in the 15-20 to 1 range. As a result, snowfall rates may exceed 10”/hr in the heaviest snow bands. At the same time winds will gust over 70mph during the day with 100-120+kt low-level winds in place around the western side of the low. Once the low starts to pull away from the region during the overnight hours 5 to 8 feet of snow should be commonplace with 15+ft drifts.

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Ravens stood pat at the trade deadline. Probably a good move given their minimal salary cap margin, and not much improvement to be had given the available 'bargains' out there. Would have cost them too much draft capital. They have 3-4 key players retuning in the next week or 2, including Boyle, Watkins, and possibly Westry. Mekari should be back in 2-3 weeks.

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13 hours ago, CAPE said:

Ravens stood pat at the trade deadline. Probably a good move given their minimal salary cap margin, and not much improvement to be had given the available 'bargains' out there. Would have cost them too much draft capital. They have 3-4 key players retuning in the next week or 2, including Boyle, Watkins, and possibly Westry. Mekari should be back in 2-3 weeks.

Plus, you get a virtual bye week win against my Vikings.

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1 hour ago, WxUSAF said:

For other parents of 5-11yo kids, CVS website is updated and I was able to schedule my son for the vaccine. First available was next week in Glen Burnie, but I got it scheduled for now pending better options.

Thanks for the heads up. Our 8-year-old wants to get it even though she's not a fan of needles. I might get a booster when she gets her first shot so we can do it together.

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On 11/3/2021 at 9:37 AM, WxUSAF said:

Walgreens also updated. I switched to a Walgreens because they had sooner appointments.

Fairfax County Government Center had a bunch of youth appointments available, so ours is scheduled for next Saturday morning. There was nothing available at the mass vaccination center at INOVA Fairfax until late December, and nothing at all at local pharmacies!

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23 minutes ago, mattie g said:

Fairfax County Government Center had a bunch of youth appointments available, so ours is scheduled for next Saturday morning. There was nothing available at the mass vaccination center at INOVA Fairfax until late December, and nothing at all at local pharmacies!

I was periodically checking CVS and Walgreens through the day yesterday and they were totally booked up by noon. Our pediatrician still has no info and HoCo health department says they’ll announce appointments tomorrow, but only for people who can’t get it through their pediatrician.

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2 hours ago, WxUSAF said:

I was periodically checking CVS and Walgreens through the day yesterday and they were totally booked up by noon. Our pediatrician still has no info and HoCo health department says they’ll announce appointments tomorrow, but only for people who can’t get it through their pediatrician.

I believe BCPS will be holding clinics in schools in the county, at some point, for kids. We will probably wait until that happens. Though I know many who have already secured appointments for their kids. 

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7 minutes ago, mappy said:

I believe BCPS will be holding clinics in schools in the county, at some point, for kids. We will probably wait until that happens. Though I know many who have already secured appointments for their kids. 

That's pretty cool that they're going to host clinics. Makes it so much easier and takes away the annoyance of going through setting up an appointment and getting your kid(s) there. I'm sure it'll help a LOT with driving up the vaccination rate.

Fairfax County schools sent out an e-mail with lots of good info, as well as links to various vaccination websites to help with scheduling. Not perfect, but they're trying to make it as painless as they can.

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7 minutes ago, mattie g said:

That's pretty cool that they're going to host clinics. Makes it so much easier and takes away the annoyance of going through setting up an appointment and getting your kid(s) there. I'm sure it'll help a LOT with driving up the vaccination rate.

Fairfax County schools sent out an e-mail with lots of good info, as well as links to various vaccination websites to help with scheduling. Not perfect, but they're trying to make it as painless as they can.

I am almost sure BCPS is planning to do this.

But for those in Anne Arundel County, they too are holding clinics at schools. 

https://www.aacps.org/covidclinics

Also,

Quote

All vaccinations will be available free of charge at clinics. Children dot not have to be AACPS students to be registered for these clinics. Locations are open to anyone and do not have to be a child's home school. 

So one would think if you're a nearby county kid and an AA county school is close to you, you'd be able to get your child's vaccine there without issue. 

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5 hours ago, mattie g said:

That's pretty cool that they're going to host clinics. Makes it so much easier and takes away the annoyance of going through setting up an appointment and getting your kid(s) there. I'm sure it'll help a LOT with driving up the vaccination rate.

Fairfax County schools sent out an e-mail with lots of good info, as well as links to various vaccination websites to help with scheduling. Not perfect, but they're trying to make it as painless as they can.

I appreciated the Fairfax County schools email.  Got into the Tysons one next week.

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