Chicago Storm Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 I think we see flakes at the end of the week. Looks like a decent shot at it.Very likely a good chunk of the sub-forum does on Thur-Sat, behind the first system.The there’s the weekend clipper/hybrid go watch as well.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 Both the GFS and Canadian are showing Western Lower MI some lake love Friday night. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 Here's the Vets day record max and low max temps. 1911 stood out has it has max records in MO up to MI, and low max records in the Plains. Here's the wx maps for that time. System moving NE bombs out in the Lakes. Serious temp gradient. Interesting that we have something similar going to happen this year, just not as extreme as back then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stebo Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: Very likely a good chunk of the sub-forum does on Thur-Sat, behind the first system.The there’s the weekend clipper/hybrid go watch as well. . 18z GFS paints a decent snowfall for November with that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WHEATCENT Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 i'll take what the 18z gfs is serving for Cleveland haha Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nwohweather Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Have a week of meetings next Monday across our Michigan operations. It literally always snows when I visit during the cold season so I expect to some flurries, especially when I’m in Muskegon for a couple of days Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 MLI nailed 69 today. Was a great day to mulch/burn leaves etc, as there was very little wind and such nice temps. Rare to get temps this warm this late in the season without hurricane force winds lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 there was so much low level haze from farmers clearing their fields today. The thickest I've ever seen that, was like fog in some places Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bowtie` Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 3 hours ago, cyclone77 said: MLI nailed 69 today. Was a great day to mulch/burn leaves etc, as there was very little wind and such nice temps. Rare to get temps this warm this late in the season without hurricane force winds lol. 69 at KIND also. Was glorious outside today. Glad it was a day off for me . But this is beyond normal. The correction when it comes is going to hurt when it gets here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Wet weather starting to move into the area. Looks like a nasty night, and day tomorrow. Might be some snow in the higher terrain, but it will be more of a slush. Ground still warm, and temps will be just around freezing. Better chance of good snow totals near the border, and in the NC MN region, as temps will end up colder quicker in those areas. Just a typical early season slop fest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Friday looks pretty solid from a showery/squally perspective. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 10, 2021 Author Share Posted November 10, 2021 Yeah low-level lapse rates look great. Looking forward to some heavy graupelers that quickly/briefly whiten the ground. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Got a solid 0.80" soaker here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted November 11, 2021 Author Share Posted November 11, 2021 6 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: Got a solid 0.80" soaker here. Nice. A lowly 0.15" here but this was always looking like a lame system for this area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 0.67” of much needed rain at MSP. Looks like the frozen white stuff will be coming down tomorrow and Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Nearly 2" of rain here. Been a steady soaker for a good 12 hours, and it's still raining. Looks like the snow has been staying along the border over into NC MN. Rain is changing to snow now across the the Iron Range, and even down near the head of the Lake outside of Duluth. Should see a change over for the area as a whole later today. Nature getting a much needed drink, and rivers back in action. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 On 11/8/2021 at 3:25 PM, Brian D said: Here's the Vets day record max and low max temps. 1911 stood out has it has max records in MO up to MI, and low max records in the Plains. Here's the wx maps for that time. System moving NE bombs out in the Lakes. Serious temp gradient. Interesting that we have something similar going to happen this year, just not as extreme as back then. Great post. From my understanding, 11/11/1911 was one of the greatest temperature drops that Missouri has ever seen, accompanied by various tornado reports before the cold front. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian D Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 1 hour ago, Chinook said: Great post. From my understanding, 11/11/1911 was one of the greatest temperature drops that Missouri has ever seen, accompanied by various tornado reports before the cold front. Figured there would be tornadoes, just never looked that hard to find out. The map for the 12th showed a note of "Colder 20 - 60 dF or more" change from previous days temps in the southern region. That's a serious drop to be sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TugHillMatt Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 5 hours ago, Brian D said: Nearly 2" of rain here. Been a steady soaker for a good 12 hours, and it's still raining. Looks like the snow has been staying along the border over into NC MN. Rain is changing to snow now across the the Iron Range, and even down near the head of the Lake outside of Duluth. Should see a change over for the area as a whole later today. Nature getting a much needed drink, and rivers back in action. It looks like it's starting to snow in the higher elevations around you. Spirit Mountain | Live Cams (spiritmt.com) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago Storm Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Solid squalls (rain) in E IA this evening.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Light snow for the past hour or so here. Not accumulating but solid mood flakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Izzi bringing the excitement for tomorrow Area Forecast Discussion...CORRECTED National Weather Service Chicago/Romeoville, IL 823 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 .UPDATE... Issued at 823 PM CST Thu Nov 11 2021 Friday: Water vapor imagery shows another well defined vort max near western Lake Superior/NE MN early this evening. Guidance is in decent agreement on pinwheeling this wave a full 180 degrees around the upper low, placing it over eastern IA Friday afternoon. This places our CWA in a region of positive vorticity advection and large scale synoptic ascent tomorrow afternoon (during peak heating). Looking at the various forecast models, not really seeing much variability in forecast soundings across our area tomorrow afternoon. Those forecast soundings have "the look" that is typically associated with our more impressive convective snow shower events. That look includes steep low level lapse rates from the surface to above 700mb, with many of the models explicitly forecasting a MAUL (moist absolutely unstable layer), which is associated with significant instability. Low CCL (convective condensation levels) with cloud tops between 15-20kft, with temps within the cloud layer ranging from near 0C at the base of the cloud to around -25 to -30C at cloud top. Appears to be a classic sounding for big, fat aggregate wet snow flakes (1"+ diameter) given the deep ascent through a wide range in temps that include a near freezing level to moisture the flakes and maximize clumping (aggregation). The heaviest snow showers will be scattered about and much like summertime convection there will be the haves and have nots with respect to who gets hit. Areas that get hit by the more intense snow showers could see a quick inch or so of wet snow come down in 30 minutes or less. Air temps in the heavier snow showers should drop to near freezing, so if the higher rates materialize as forecast, then there could be periods where snow sticks even on roadways in the heavier snow showers. This should be more the exception than the rule, but that could make it more hazardous with varying conditions over short distances. Visibility in the heavier snow showers should drop to 1/4SM to 1/2SM and much like this evening, the strong cells could produce graupel and mix down some higher wind gusts as well. Can`t rule out an isolated thunderstorm, but with the top of the convectively unstable layer just barely above -20C, think the chances of sufficient charge separation for lightning is low (though not zero). Will be issuing an SPS this evening to raise awareness of the potential impacts tomorrow. Updated forecast grids are out, text forecast products will be out shortly, followed not to long by an SPS. - Izzi Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Probably saw more lightning on my way in to work this morning that I saw nearly all of this summer combined. There was quite the light show to the west and north west of the lakeshore this morning along with reports of some pretty heavy rain. Clear skies in my area really highlighted the clouds and lightning. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 6 hours of steady light snow amounted to zero accumulations here. 1-2” west of the metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Snowing here this morning. Nothing accumulating yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 First flakes in Iowa city today. No accumulation as expected Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 First flakes of the season right here! that i have seen at least Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 ^ same Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OrdIowPitMsp Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Donut hole of no accumulations around the cities. The NWS office in Chanhassen did record 0.2” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 We've had off/on snow showers since early this morning, but nothing to get excited about. It's too warm for any accumulation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now