George’s official winter forecast for the Boston area

[George001]

After a strong start to the 2020-2021 winter, winter ended (late Feb) due to the polar vortex rapidly increasing in strength, leading to a snowless March in New England. This year, we have some mixed signals. 

- warm waters off the east coast

- basin wide La Niña (strength is a big wild card, my forecast is -1.2 to -1.6, moderate to strong)

-warm waters near the north pole

- the entire pacific has rapidly cooled off, a much different look than the past few winters

-polar vortex is expected to be weak in mid December on the models

-warm blob in the pacific is smaller than it has been, but it is there and fairly far west

-Siberian snow cover is average to below average 

With the recent shift in guidance from a weak polar vortex in November to a strengthening polar vortex in November and weak polar vortex in December, the timeline for our windows of opportunity have shifted. Due to the polar vortex and warm waters off the east coast, I do not believe there will be snow from November to early to mid December in Southern New England outside of the Berkshires. The pattern in my opinion will be quite unfavorable, and we are going to have to kick the can to later in December.
 

However, we will be wasting shit climo anyways with the unfavorable pattern, by mid December with the weak polar vortex in place combined with the favorable ssts for North Atlantic blocking, I expect there to be a window of opportunity from the 3rd week of December, to early Feb. There is a strong signal for blocking to develop, however I do not think the blocking will be as strong as it was last Jan, due to the limited Siberian snowcover advance.
 

Then we have our next strongest pattern driver, which in my opinion will be La Niña. Some years, Enso is kinda just there while other factors dominate the pattern, this year I believe the main drivers will be polar vortex and La Niña. I am forecasting a moderate to strong La Niña (-1.2 to -1.6), and I do believe it will be a major pattern driver due to other atmospheric measures besides the temperature in the Enso region itself reflecting La Niña (SOI index, the MEI index,  the entire Pacific cooling off ect). Many snow weenies (besides myself) are probably going to panic and think “Moderate to strong La Niña dominating the pattern, winters going to suck!” That is not necessarily the case, the 2010-2011 winter had a strong La Niña, and it was very well coupled to the atmospheric pattern. 
 

In my opinion this winter will ultimately come down to a battle between the polar vortex and the La Niña, with a much weaker pacific jet than we have had recently. The northern branch will likely dominate, and when combined with North Atlantic blocking in that late Dec to early Feb window, the entire pattern will be amplified with the northern stream digging fairly far south in the middle of the country, causing a low to develop and cut up into Ohio or even as far west as Wisconsin in some cases, which happens in La Niña. Without blocking this would be VERY bad, but blocking will turn these would be rainstorms into slow moving Miller Bs that undergo rapid cyclogenesis due to the contrast with warm ocean temps and the Arctic air in place, courtesy of the polar vortex. I do think we will get 6-10 chances in this time frame, with the room for error being higher due to the amplified jet stream making it easier for the northern branch to phase with whatever leftover energy there is near the gulf (that said, I’m expecting 2-3 hits)

Unfortunately, I do think the polar vortex will recover and start deepening in Feb, when combined with the North Atlantic blocking disappearing and La Niña in place, I do believe we will probably see a trough in the west. It sucks, but even the best winters can’t be wall to wall, even 2014-2015 we wasted December and the 1st half of January before the polar vortex took over and we got buried. This part of the forecast is where things get very tricky. Will there be another polar vortex disruption (right now, I am not seeing any signs of a split like last year for the 1st polar vortex event)? If there is, that could cause March to get wild, with the potential for us to see 60s and 70s in mid Feb going to blizzard conditions in early March. The QBO being negative from what I have read makes the polar vortex more susceptible to being displaced or split. I do not expect a split in the first half of winter, I expect the vortex to weaken, but not enough to cause a split. mid Feb to early Mar however, I believe we have a high probability of seeing a split or displacement. 
 

Summary-

Boston

Nov- +2 to +4, 0 inches of snow

Dec- 0 to +2, 10-15 inches of snow

Jan- -3 to -2, 40-45 inches of snow

Feb- +4 to +5, 0-10 inches of snow

Mar- -4 to -2, 20-25 inches of snow

Dec-Jan total:

temps- average to slightly above

Snowfall- 70-85 inches

analogs ranked from best to worst

2017-2018 (on roids), 2010-2011, 2012-2013 (bad timing w/ big feb and weak Jan, but like it for March and the high ceiling blizzards), 2020-2021

 

[George001]

I did it, I went big. The La Niña structure being basin wide instead of central based (it went more west based in late February and March last year, this year I believe if anything it goes more east based latter half of winter, and we will see it’s influences in March) is huge. The polar vortex expected to be weak with a severe hurricane season in the fall makes me think we could see things get wild with a cold and stormy pattern especially in January. The reason why I didn’t go all in on 1995-1996 is I think the pacific warm blob being that far west will come back to bite us in the ass in Feb, leading to a trough in the west. I believe the pacific will be much better than last year, but worse than 1995-1996. I actually think it’s good that the blocking in Jan won’t be as severe as last year, we missed on quite a few lows to the south with the blocking being so extreme it was bad.

[raindancewx]

I don't think you're completely wrong.

My main issue for you guys this winter is just that I think the Nor'easters are going to time up to periods of weakening blocking rather than strengthening blocking. So you'll have a lot of Nor'easters, some pretty powerful ones in all likelihood, but they'll start cold with snow and go to rain a lot of the time.

You guys have much better La Ninas for snow in periods of low-solar activity too. There is a real shot though that the annualized period (July-June) won't actually be low solar activity. I don't have a good method to predict solar - that part of my outlook is a pure guess. Nationally, the key threshold for solar changes on patterns seems to be 55-sunspots per year whenever I test it (i.e. the 12 month average is 55 from July-June).

Solar activity is about ~26 sunspots/month for the past 12 months (11/2020-10/2021). In 2010, we were at ~22 sunspots/month (for 11/2009-10/2010), and then rose to 44 sunspots/month for July 2010-June 2011. We're running ahead of the 2010 solar trend, so it's possible we'll be in the "high solar" grouping below (say 60 sunspots). Way more common for Boston do get slammed with snow in a La Nina with lower solar (1933, 1995, 2008, 2010, 2017 all ~60"+, and all low solar La Ninas).

Low Solar La Nina Boston Snow (<55 sunspots, July-June, 1762-2021 average is 85)

Average is 49.5 inches

1933-34 (62.7" snow Boston)

1942 (23.9")

1954 (25.1")

1964 (50.4")

1973 (36.9")

1974 (27.6")

1975 (46.6")

1984 (26.6")

1995 (107.6")

2005 (39.9")

2007 (51.2")

2008 (65.9")

2010 (81.0")

2016 (47.6")

2017 (59.9")

2020 (38.6")

High Solar La Nina (>55 sunspots). None over ~60" since at least the 1930s. Average is 37.8 inches for Boston.

1938 (37.6")

1949 (32.0")

1950 (29.7")

1955 (60.9")

1956 (52.0")

1970 (57.3")

1971 (47.5")

1983 (43.0")

1988 (15.5")

1998 (36.4")

1999 (24.4")

2000 (45.9")

2011 (9.3")

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

[CoastalWx]

Winter of George?

[RUNNAWAYICEBERG]

50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Winter of George?

We can just bypass Ray’s outlook now. WOG to the moon.

[George001]

14 hours ago, raindancewx said:

I don't think you're completely wrong.

My main issue for you guys this winter is just that I think the Nor'easters are going to time up to periods of weakening blocking rather than strengthening blocking. So you'll have a lot of Nor'easters, some pretty powerful ones in all likelihood, but they'll start cold with snow and go to rain a lot of the time.

You guys have much better La Ninas for snow in periods of low-solar activity too. There is a real shot though that the annualized period (July-June) won't actually be low solar activity. I don't have a good method to predict solar - that part of my outlook is a pure guess. Nationally, the key threshold for solar changes on patterns seems to be 55-sunspots per year whenever I test it (i.e. the 12 month average is 55 from July-June).

Solar activity is about ~26 sunspots/month for the past 12 months (11/2020-10/2021). In 2010, we were at ~22 sunspots/month (for 11/2009-10/2010), and then rose to 44 sunspots/month for July 2010-June 2011. We're running ahead of the 2010 solar trend, so it's possible we'll be in the "high solar" grouping below (say 60 sunspots). Way more common for Boston do get slammed with snow in a La Nina with lower solar (1933, 1995, 2008, 2010, 2017 all ~60"+, and all low solar La Ninas).

Low Solar La Nina Boston Snow (<55 sunspots, July-June, 1762-2021 average is 85)

Average is 49.5 inches

1933-34 (62.7" snow Boston)

1942 (23.9")

1954 (25.1")

1964 (50.4")

1973 (36.9")

1974 (27.6")

1975 (46.6")

1984 (26.6")

1995 (107.6")

2005 (39.9")

2007 (51.2")

2008 (65.9")

2010 (81.0")

2016 (47.6")

2017 (59.9")

2020 (38.6")

High Solar La Nina (>55 sunspots). None over ~60" since at least the 1930s. Average is 37.8 inches for Boston.

1938 (37.6")

1949 (32.0")

1950 (29.7")

1955 (60.9")

1956 (52.0")

1970 (57.3")

1971 (47.5")

1983 (43.0")

1988 (15.5")

1998 (36.4")

1999 (24.4")

2000 (45.9")

2011 (9.3")

You bring up a good point about the solar activity, it has been increasing lately. If it keeps increasing, that could be a big red flag. That will definitely need to be watched. For the nor’easters timing up with periods of weakening blocking, that can work if the pacific cooperates, but if the western ridge is too far west, we could see a scenario like last year where the gradient is just to the north and west of the Boston area.

[George001]

On 10/29/2021 at 10:20 PM, George001 said:

After a strong start to the 2020-2021 winter, winter ended (late Feb) due to the polar vortex rapidly increasing in strength, leading to a snowless March in New England. This year, we have some mixed signals. 

- warm waters off the east coast

- basin wide La Niña (strength is a big wild card, my forecast is -1.2 to -1.6, moderate to strong)

-warm waters near the north pole

- the entire pacific has rapidly cooled off, a much different look than the past few winters

-polar vortex is expected to be weak in mid December on the models

-warm blob in the pacific is smaller than it has been, but it is there and fairly far west

-Siberian snow cover is average to below average 

With the recent shift in guidance from a weak polar vortex in November to a strengthening polar vortex in November and weak polar vortex in December, the timeline for our windows of opportunity have shifted. Due to the polar vortex and warm waters off the east coast, I do not believe there will be snow from November to early to mid December in Southern New England outside of the Berkshires. The pattern in my opinion will be quite unfavorable, and we are going to have to kick the can to later in December.
 

However, we will be wasting shit climo anyways with the unfavorable pattern, by mid December with the weak polar vortex in place combined with the favorable ssts for North Atlantic blocking, I expect there to be a window of opportunity from the 3rd week of December, to early Feb. There is a strong signal for blocking to develop, however I do not think the blocking will be as strong as it was last Jan, due to the limited Siberian snowcover advance.
 

Then we have our next strongest pattern driver, which in my opinion will be La Niña. Some years, Enso is kinda just there while other factors dominate the pattern, this year I believe the main drivers will be polar vortex and La Niña. I am forecasting a moderate to strong La Niña (-1.2 to -1.6), and I do believe it will be a major pattern driver due to other atmospheric measures besides the temperature in the Enso region itself reflecting La Niña (SOI index, the MEI index,  the entire Pacific cooling off ect). Many snow weenies (besides myself) are probably going to panic and think “Moderate to strong La Niña dominating the pattern, winters going to suck!” That is not necessarily the case, the 2010-2011 winter had a strong La Niña, and it was very well coupled to the atmospheric pattern. 
 

In my opinion this winter will ultimately come down to a battle between the polar vortex and the La Niña, with a much weaker pacific jet than we have had recently. The northern branch will likely dominate, and when combined with North Atlantic blocking in that late Dec to early Feb window, the entire pattern will be amplified with the northern stream digging fairly far south in the middle of the country, causing a low to develop and cut up into Ohio or even as far west as Wisconsin in some cases, which happens in La Niña. Without blocking this would be VERY bad, but blocking will turn these would be rainstorms into slow moving Miller Bs that undergo rapid cyclogenesis due to the contrast with warm ocean temps and the Arctic air in place, courtesy of the polar vortex. I do think we will get 6-10 chances in this time frame, with the room for error being higher due to the amplified jet stream making it easier for the northern branch to phase with whatever leftover energy there is near the gulf (that said, I’m expecting 2-3 hits)

Unfortunately, I do think the polar vortex will recover and start deepening in Feb, when combined with the North Atlantic blocking disappearing and La Niña in place, I do believe we will probably see a trough in the west. It sucks, but even the best winters can’t be wall to wall, even 2014-2015 we wasted December and the 1st half of January before the polar vortex took over and we got buried. This part of the forecast is where things get very tricky. Will there be another polar vortex disruption (right now, I am not seeing any signs of a split like last year for the 1st polar vortex event)? If there is, that could cause March to get wild, with the potential for us to see 60s and 70s in mid Feb going to blizzard conditions in early March. The QBO being negative from what I have read makes the polar vortex more susceptible to being displaced or split. I do not expect a split in the first half of winter, I expect the vortex to weaken, but not enough to cause a split. mid Feb to early Mar however, I believe we have a high probability of seeing a split or displacement. 
 

Summary-

Boston

Nov- +2 to +4, 0 inches of snow

Dec- 0 to +2, 10-15 inches of snow

Jan- -3 to -2, 40-45 inches of snow

Feb- +4 to +5, 0-10 inches of snow

Mar- -4 to -2, 20-25 inches of snow

Dec-Jan total:

temps- average to slightly above

Snowfall- 70-85 inches

analogs ranked from best to worst

2017-2018 (on roids), 2010-2011, 2012-2013 (bad timing w/ big feb and weak Jan, but like it for March and the high ceiling blizzards), 2020-2021

 

Mid winter update:

Where I went right: 

The La Niña has been in control and is actively influencing our weather pattern. November was warm, as expected. The first 3 weeks of December I expected to be mild, and it was. My Jan forecast verified well, Jan was cold and had 2 snowstorms, with a monster blizzard at the end of the month. Not quite 40-45 inches in the Boston area, but at 36.2 inches I’ll consider that a good call.  
 

Where I went wrong:

First of all, I did not assess the enso region correctly (Ray had the right idea here, with a peak of -.9 to -1.1). The La Niña is not strong, it peaked at -1 degrees Celsius, so high end weak/low end moderate, not strong or high end moderate like I thought. However, the La Niña despite not being particularly strong is well coupled and has been influencing our weather pattern. The La Niña is also more east based rather than central based like I initially thought, which is less favorable for December, and more favorable for Feb-March. In my opinion, the misjudgment of the enso was a big reason why my forecast busted (was too cold and snowy) in December, and why it will likely bust in Feb as well (too warm and snowless). January is often very good in Ninas, whether they are strong, weak, east based or central based. Despite this error, I did have the right idea of the enso state being well coupled enough to influence our weather pattern, which is part of why I was so bullish on January. 

I was also incorrect on my outlook for the polar vortex. I was thinking there would be a major polar vortex disruption in late December, with the polar vortex weakening rapidly before deepening again in Feb. However, the polar vortex has been strong the entire winter, and looks to remain strong in the near future. There were warning signs, such as the lackluster Siberian snowcover during the fall, and the snowcover in North America was very low as well in late fall and early winter. I should give these more weight and less weight to the long range models in the future, as I overestimated how accurate the long range models are for predicting polar vortex strength.

However, despite the very strong polar vortex this winter is nowhere near being a ratter. Since the blocking broke down in late December, the NAO has been mostly positive and looks to remain that way on the models for Feb. It is very likely that both Jan and Feb will end up being positive NAO months. This is consistent with the strong polar vortex. This goes into my next point though, despite the polar vortex being strong and the blocking being minimal, the polar vortex isn’t super consolidated. It has been elongated at times, and has been on our side of the globe. So while we aren’t getting blocking, it’s not mild and snowless like many strong polar vortex winters. Also, due to the Nina being more east based than I expected, the pacific pattern has been more favorable than I expected, counteracting the less favorable Atlantic. Areas to the south like Atlantic City have also done much better than I expected, in large part due to an active subtropical jet. 

I am still thinking my snowfall ranges have a decent chance to verify, though I’m thinking it will be on the lower end. 85 inches in Boston is pushing it, we aren’t really on a 2010-2011 or 2014-2015 track. Those winters both had over 50 inches of snow in Boston by now, we are more on track for a 2017-2018 type of winter (possibly a little better due to us wasting Dec instead of Feb). The risk is the strong polar vortex takes over and winter shuts off in late Feb, or we run the table and have a March 2018 type run that starts a few weeks early (if I remember correctly the March 2018 pattern didn’t break down until like mid April, but climo was too hostile by late March or so to really take advantage of it like we did the first half of the month). Im thinking more something in the middle ends up verifying. We will have to see though, we will know more in late Feb.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I didn't mention it in my January update, but I think la nina will end up a bit more eastern biased than even I had forecast, so that probably did play a role in shifting the focus more later in the winter as opposed to December....this is probably part of the reason why I mixed up December and January. That was a very good point George, but its something I will touch upon more after the season ends, rather than in season. I tend to focus on ENSO more before and after the season, as opposed to during.

[George001]

This was forecast was a fail. Goddamn polar vortex didn’t stop deepening. I’ll make a new post in a month or so when there’s 0 chance at any more late winter/early spring threats to talk about where I went wrong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 3/15/2022 at 7:11 PM, George001 said:

This was forecast was a fail. Goddamn polar vortex didn’t stop deepening. I’ll make a new post in a month or so when there’s 0 chance at any more late winter/early spring threats to talk about where I went wrong.

Yea, I bet against the sun late season and lost....my amounts were still good near the coast, but total fail across the interior.

[Great Snow 1717]

On 10/29/2021 at 10:20 PM, George001 said:

After a strong start to the 2020-2021 winter, winter ended (late Feb) due to the polar vortex rapidly increasing in strength, leading to a snowless March in New England. This year, we have some mixed signals. 

- warm waters off the east coast

- basin wide La Niña (strength is a big wild card, my forecast is -1.2 to -1.6, moderate to strong)

-warm waters near the north pole

- the entire pacific has rapidly cooled off, a much different look than the past few winters

-polar vortex is expected to be weak in mid December on the models

-warm blob in the pacific is smaller than it has been, but it is there and fairly far west

-Siberian snow cover is average to below average 

With the recent shift in guidance from a weak polar vortex in November to a strengthening polar vortex in November and weak polar vortex in December, the timeline for our windows of opportunity have shifted. Due to the polar vortex and warm waters off the east coast, I do not believe there will be snow from November to early to mid December in Southern New England outside of the Berkshires. The pattern in my opinion will be quite unfavorable, and we are going to have to kick the can to later in December.
 

However, we will be wasting shit climo anyways with the unfavorable pattern, by mid December with the weak polar vortex in place combined with the favorable ssts for North Atlantic blocking, I expect there to be a window of opportunity from the 3rd week of December, to early Feb. There is a strong signal for blocking to develop, however I do not think the blocking will be as strong as it was last Jan, due to the limited Siberian snowcover advance.
 

Then we have our next strongest pattern driver, which in my opinion will be La Niña. Some years, Enso is kinda just there while other factors dominate the pattern, this year I believe the main drivers will be polar vortex and La Niña. I am forecasting a moderate to strong La Niña (-1.2 to -1.6), and I do believe it will be a major pattern driver due to other atmospheric measures besides the temperature in the Enso region itself reflecting La Niña (SOI index, the MEI index,  the entire Pacific cooling off ect). Many snow weenies (besides myself) are probably going to panic and think “Moderate to strong La Niña dominating the pattern, winters going to suck!” That is not necessarily the case, the 2010-2011 winter had a strong La Niña, and it was very well coupled to the atmospheric pattern. 
 

In my opinion this winter will ultimately come down to a battle between the polar vortex and the La Niña, with a much weaker pacific jet than we have had recently. The northern branch will likely dominate, and when combined with North Atlantic blocking in that late Dec to early Feb window, the entire pattern will be amplified with the northern stream digging fairly far south in the middle of the country, causing a low to develop and cut up into Ohio or even as far west as Wisconsin in some cases, which happens in La Niña. Without blocking this would be VERY bad, but blocking will turn these would be rainstorms into slow moving Miller Bs that undergo rapid cyclogenesis due to the contrast with warm ocean temps and the Arctic air in place, courtesy of the polar vortex. I do think we will get 6-10 chances in this time frame, with the room for error being higher due to the amplified jet stream making it easier for the northern branch to phase with whatever leftover energy there is near the gulf (that said, I’m expecting 2-3 hits)

Unfortunately, I do think the polar vortex will recover and start deepening in Feb, when combined with the North Atlantic blocking disappearing and La Niña in place, I do believe we will probably see a trough in the west. It sucks, but even the best winters can’t be wall to wall, even 2014-2015 we wasted December and the 1st half of January before the polar vortex took over and we got buried. This part of the forecast is where things get very tricky. Will there be another polar vortex disruption (right now, I am not seeing any signs of a split like last year for the 1st polar vortex event)? If there is, that could cause March to get wild, with the potential for us to see 60s and 70s in mid Feb going to blizzard conditions in early March. The QBO being negative from what I have read makes the polar vortex more susceptible to being displaced or split. I do not expect a split in the first half of winter, I expect the vortex to weaken, but not enough to cause a split. mid Feb to early Mar however, I believe we have a high probability of seeing a split or displacement. 
 

Summary-

Boston

Nov- +2 to +4, 0 inches of snow

Dec- 0 to +2, 10-15 inches of snow

Jan- -3 to -2, 40-45 inches of snow

Feb- +4 to +5, 0-10 inches of snow

Mar- -4 to -2, 20-25 inches of snow

Dec-Jan total:

temps- average to slightly above

Snowfall- 70-85 inches

analogs ranked from best to worst

2017-2018 (on roids), 2010-2011, 2012-2013 (bad timing w/ big feb and weak Jan, but like it for March and the high ceiling blizzards), 2020-2021

 

In reviewing your forecast, I noticed that you did not mention the months leading into the winter season. ..in other word what was taking place weatherwise. 

[George001]

2 hours ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

In reviewing your forecast, I noticed that you did not mention the months leading into the winter season. ..in other word what was taking place weatherwise. 

It was a warm fall but that doesn’t matter too much in terms of what happens in the winter.

[Great Snow 1717]

17 hours ago, George001 said:

It was a warm fall but that doesn’t matter too much in terms of what happens in the winter.

I think many people discounted the warm fall when preparing their winter forecast(s). It was a historically warm fall. And it was the main reason why I had very low expectations for the winter of 21-22. Prior to this winter I only had lower expectations for one winter and that was the winter of 15-16. 

Dec- Above average temp

Jan-Below average temp

Feb-above average temp

Mar-well on its way to being a well above average temp month.  Forecasts for March that called for it to be a cold and snowy month are going to bust badly. 

 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 3/18/2022 at 9:58 AM, Great Snow 1717 said:

I think many people discounted the warm fall when preparing their winter forecast(s). It was a historically warm fall. And it was the main reason why I had very low expectations for the winter of 21-22. Prior to this winter I only had lower expectations for one winter and that was the winter of 15-16. 

Dec- Above average temp

Jan-Below average temp

Feb-above average temp

Mar-well on its way to being a well above average temp month.  Forecasts for March that called for it to be a cold and snowy month are going to bust badly. 

 

 

Depends on the location....both of those seasons, this year and 2015-2016, had historic blizzards.....so it was really only a bad season if you missed out on said events. I-95 had a pretty good snowfall season this year.

[40/70 Benchmark]

On 3/17/2022 at 4:16 PM, George001 said:

It was a warm fall but that doesn’t matter too much in terms of what happens in the winter.

I agree in general, however, last autumn was so mild that most of the analogs for that degree of warmth in the fall were ratters....if you went based just upon that, then a ratter would have been the forecast. That is what Fisher did, which I thought was silly and still do. This was not a prototypical ratter of a season, but unfortunately the interior just never caught a break.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Depends on the locations....both of those seasons, this year and 2015-2016, had historic blizzards.....so it was really only a bad season is you missed out on said events. I-95 had a pretty good snowfall season this year.

Even with the blizzard it was an F- winter......a blizzard in 16 wouldn't have saved SNE from a terrible winter......and keep in mind that our area did meet the guidelines for a blizzard on 1/29...

[40/70 Benchmark]

2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Even with the blizzard it was an F- winter......a blizzard in 16 wouldn't have saved SNE from a terrible winter......and keep in mind that our area did meet the guidelines for a blizzard on 1/29...

You know what I mean, dude....we missed out on the very heavy amounts. And I disagree that if I had experienced what NYC did in that January 2016 storm, then I would not have graded it an "F". If you poll most NYC weenies, they probably would not grade it an F.

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You know what I mean, dude....we missed out on the very heavy amounts. And I disagree that if I had experienced what NYC did in that January 2016 storm, then I would not have graded it an "F". If you poll most NYC weenies, they probably would not grade it an F.

Well I still would have graded it an F- winter. ..it was awful

[40/70 Benchmark]

If you want to pat yourself on the back for correctly diagnosing the lack of blocking in the arctic based upon the very mild fall, okay...fine. But this season had the poleward Pacific ridging that most east-based la nina seasons do, which is why it was not a 2011-2012 type of rat.

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Well I still would have graded it an F- winter. ..it was awful

Okay. I think you are in the minority there, but that is your opinion. I don't think most would grade a winter that included a below average January and a 24-30"+ blizzard an "F-"
season.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

If you want to pat yourself on the back for correctly diagnosing the lack of blocking the arctic based upon the very mild fall, okay...fine. But this season had the poleward Pacific ridging that most east-based la nina seasons do, which is why it was not a 2011-2012 type rat.

it was still a rat as I expected it to be...lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

it was still a rat as I expected it to be...lol

You thought Boston would have average or above snowfall? Kudos for forecasting that unique type of "rat" with absolute surgical precision.

[Great Snow 1717]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Okay. I think you are in the minority there, but that is your opinion. I don't think most would grade a winter that included a below average January and a 24-30"+ blizzard an "F-"
season.

Well they can give a grade for the winter...mine is an F-..and even that is a generous grade..

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Well they can give a grade for the winter...mine is an F-..and even that is a generous grade..

Alrighty then.

In our area, it sucked....I would give it a D.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

You thought Boston would have average or above snowfall? Kudos for forecasting that unique type of "rat" with absolute surgical precision.

You are far too sensitive when it comes to your winter forecast lol

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

You are far too sensitive when it comes to your winter forecast lol

I didn't mention anything about that...you did, presumably in an effort to deflect away from the fact that a large portion of the region did not fit the definition of a rat season.

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Alrighty then.

In our area, it sucked....I would give it a D.

Below normal snowfall and above average warmth equates to an F- grade from me...so we will just have to disagree on the grade.  A D grade in my book is still a rat of a winter...

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, Great Snow 1717 said:

Below normal snowfall and above average warmth equates to an F- grade from me...so we will just have to disagree on the grade.  A D grade in my book is still a rat of a winter...

I agree its a ratter here....but there are seasons that only featured half of the amount of snowfall that we received this season, so I can not in good faith give it an "F".

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I didn't mention anything about that...you did, presumably in an effort to deflect away from the fact that a large portion of the region did not fit the definition of a rat season.

Are you including So New Hampshire, Central and Western Ma?