PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Check into BWIs total. Think they revised downward on Monday. That’s the latest total on the CLI just posted today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 6 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: That’s the latest total on the CLI just posted today. Hmmm…very puzzling. BWI climate report still says 6.0” on the LWX webpage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 35 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: @olafminesaw takes the lead!! A lot of people at the top already with negative departures and nowhere to go but down 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 7, 2022 Author Share Posted January 7, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hmmm…very puzzling. BWI climate report still says 6.0” on the LWX webpage. Preliminary Monthly Climate Data (CF6) says 6.8" for that day as well, which agrees with the Daily Climate Report total (6.8" + 3.0" today). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 I'm not gonna pull it out yet but my hand is on the whip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 7, 2022 Share Posted January 7, 2022 48 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: A lot of people at the top already with negative departures and nowhere to go but down Very true, and according to my calculation, 12 have been eliminated. That includes WxWatcher007, who is currently tied for second, but is closed out by olafminesaw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On 10/29/2021 at 2:10 PM, Cobalt said: I think last year will be the closest I ever get to the crown.. In any case BWI: 4.3" DCA: 2.7" IAD: 6.8" RIC: 3.4" Tiebreaker SBY: 2.0" #Nailedit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 Someone should actually calculate the totals that would allow @George BM to clinch. It would be awesome if a contest was won by February. But Olaf’s in the lead so that probably means winter’s over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 On the subject of the BWI 6.8 or 6.0, they still say 6.8 in the CF6 product also. It is not without precedent for a value in the CF6 to undergo later changes, so worth keeping an eye on that detail. Looking at the current standings, it is interesting that the first forecast in the current rankings with a higher forecast for DCA than snow already measured is 12th (and they have only 0.2" to use up) and the next after that is in 27th place. This would be reduced somewhat if we counted only the ranked forecasts that were not eliminated (those that can only sink lower in the standings now). Also of interest is that of the first twelve forecasts including that first one that could benefit from DCA snow, only three can benefit from further snow at BWI. Another very moderate event such as 4" BWI and DCA 5" IAD and 3" RIC would move the lead down to current 27th place IUsedtoHateCold with 28th place RodneyS then second with 30th place Weather53 in third. Looking at current departures, most people in that part of the table have the makings of one plausible snowstorm, while people down near the bottom have a requirement for one large storm or two moderate ones. My residual snowstorm is 13.7" BWI, 8.6" DCA, 18.2" IAD and 12.8" RIC. But I would settle for two that added up to that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 56 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Someone should actually calculate the totals that would allow @George BM to clinch. It would be awesome if a contest was won by February. But Olaf’s in the lead so that probably means winter’s over. George BM has higher forecasts than any other player in all four locations. I took numbers that were just slightly higher than 2nd highest forecasts in general, and found the following: I started with values equal to second highest forecasts and checked each forecast that was among the top five. Those are the five who need more snow than me, and they are generally in a zone where they need quite a bit more. Anyway, at that first level, ldub23 (second highest totals) easily wins over the 3rd to 5th highest, he has two of those second highest numbers, another is just 1.0" under, and for RIC ldub23 is 4" under second highest. So it would appear to be a straight up contest between ldub23 and GeorgeBM if more snow than ldub23's forecast materializes. Therefore the amounts GeorgeBM would need would be any combination of smaller errors, which could occur with four cases where he is 0.1" or more ahead, or various other combinations. If all the errors were equal, then he would need 32.6" more at BWI, 20.3" more at DCA, 39.2" more at IAD, and 23.5" more at RIC. Those are season totals of 42.4" BWI, 29.9" DCA, 47.6" IAD and 25.5" RIC. You could jog those around, as long as the four totals add up to at least 145.4" then GeorgeBM could win. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 9 minutes ago, Roger Smith said: George BM has higher forecasts than any other player in all four locations. I took numbers that were just slightly higher than 2nd highest forecasts in general, and found the following: I started with values equal to second highest forecasts and checked each forecast that was among the top five. Those are the five who need more snow than me, and they are generally in a zone where they need quite a bit more. Anyway, at that first level, ldub (second highest totals) easily wins over the 3rd to 5th highest, he has two of those second highest numbers, another is just 1.0" over, and RIC is 4" over. So it would appear to be a straight up contest between ldub23 and GeorgeBM if more snow than ldub23's forecast materializes. Therefore the amounts GeorgeBM would need would be any combination of smaller errors, which could occur with four cases where he is 0.1" or more ahead, or various other combinations. If all the errors were equal, then he would need 32.6" more at BWI, 20.3" more at DCA, 39.2" more at IAD, and 23.5" more at RIC. Another way of looking at this is that if snow at each of the four locations averaged about 85% of George BM's forecasts, snow would total 44.6 inches at BWI, 28.5 inches at DCA, 47.6 inches at IAD, and 24.6 inches at RIC. That would result in George BM's total departure being 26.0 and Idub23's total departure being 26.3. That would close out Idub23 because all of his departures would be negative, whereas all of George BM's departures would be positive. By the way, as good as olafminesaw has been in your contest over the years, he is on shaky ground this year because he already has negative departures at both BWI and DCA. If during the rest of the winter, BWI were to receive an additional 0.2 inches or more, IAD were to receive an additional 3.6 inches or more, and RIC were to receive an additional 0.5 inches or more, MN Transplant would close out olafminesaw. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 13 hours ago, RodneyS said: Very true, and according to my calculation, 12 have been eliminated. That includes WxWatcher007, who is currently tied for second, but is closed out by olafminesaw. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 I'd be shocked if y'all didn't get any more snow. But I'll take my annual fifteen minutes of Fame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 8, 2022 Share Posted January 8, 2022 16 hours ago, RodneyS said: By the way, as good as olafminesaw has been in your contest over the years, he is on shaky ground this year because he already has negative departures at both BWI and DCA. If during the rest of the winter, BWI were to receive an additional 0.2 inches or more, IAD were to receive an additional 3.6 inches or more, and RIC were to receive an additional 0.5 inches or more, MN Transplant would close out olafminesaw. It appears that the National Weather Service has reduced yesterday's snowfall at DCA from 2.7 to 2.6 inches and at IAD from 4.5 to 4.0 inches. If those revised figures hold, the current Top Three would be: olafminesaw 7.3, Rickin Baltimore 8.8, and WxWatcher007 and MN Transplant tied at 9.8. Unfortunately for WxWatcher007, he is still closed out by olafminesaw, but olafminesaw now has a little more of a cushion over MN Transplant. The latter would now need BWI to receive an additional 0.2 inches or more, IAD to receive an additional 4.1 inches or more, and RIC to receive an additional 0.5 inches or more to close out olfaminesaw. Alternatively, however, if RIC were to receive 1.6 inches more, olafminesaw would be closed out even if no more snow falls in the Washington-Baltimore area this season. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 8, 2022 Author Share Posted January 8, 2022 I don't ever remember LWX having this many revisions in previous years. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 It must be the effects of climatology change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 14 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: I don't ever remember LWX having this many revisions in previous years. Hoping George pulls out the under dog Victory here. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 On 1/7/2022 at 5:37 PM, PrinceFrederickWx said: Preliminary Monthly Climate Data (CF6) says 6.8" for that day as well, which agrees with the Daily Climate Report total (6.8" + 3.0" today). Well what am I looking at differently then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kay Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 If this becomes a showdown between olafminesaw and MN Transplant the loser has to make hotdish for the winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 @WxUSAF 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 9, 2022 Share Posted January 9, 2022 Hmmm…typo then? Weird discrepancy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 9, 2022 Author Share Posted January 9, 2022 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hmmm…typo then? Weird discrepancy. It's strange, both events actually have different amounts vs. the CF6. I'm using the CF6 for now. Anybody here know anyone at LWX? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 10, 2022 Share Posted January 10, 2022 5 hours ago, Kay said: If this becomes a showdown between olafminesaw and MN Transplant the loser has to make hotdish for the winner If it comes down to us, there are going to be some pissed weenies that this pattern delivered zilch. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted January 11, 2022 Share Posted January 11, 2022 Unfortunately ((for me as a warminstra)) this might be one of those years where I'm asking for the rescue snow shovel crew. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 12, 2022 Author Share Posted January 12, 2022 I’m gonna guess IAD gets on the board with the weekend storm while the rest of the airports rain, thus even further solidifying Olaf’s lead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 12, 2022 Share Posted January 12, 2022 At a minimum this storm will probably add 3" to BWI and DCA, 6" to IAD and 1-2" to RIC but median of possible outcomes more like 5-6" at BWI, 4-5" at DCA, 8-10" at IAD, and top end would be 12-15 inches at all three in which case RIC would likely have 5" -- and that's going to eliminate three quarters of the field. With all of Feb and Mar to go. Which means add another inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 13, 2022 Share Posted January 13, 2022 On 11/17/2021 at 7:34 PM, gopper said: BWI: 32 DCA: 22 IAD: 40 RIC: 8 SBY: 8 Methodology = "We're due!" Sorry locals south and east will have too much mixing. Analog = 1996 I think this is going to win. Doom and gloom for south and east because of mixing. Hope @George BM wins though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 Our defending champion @NorthArlington101 takes the lead, with @LittleVillageWx very close behind. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 17, 2022 Author Share Posted January 17, 2022 On a side note: has their ever been a winter where DCA exceeded both BWI and IAD? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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