RodneyS Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 14 minutes ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: On a side note: has their ever been a winter where DCA exceeded both BWI and IAD? Yes -- three times, including the first winter IAD was open. 1) 1962-63: DCA 21.4, BWI 19.6, IAD 20.6 (and RIC 16.9) 2) 1987-88: DCA 25.0, BWI 20.4, IAD 16.7 (and RIC 12.6) 3) 2001-02: DCA 3.2, BWI 2.3, IAD 2.6 (and RIC the champ at 8.7) By the way, I'm suspicious of the report of only 2.3 inches of snow at IAD yesterday. I live near there and there was quite a bit of light, flaky snow through late afternoon. IAD reported 0.42 inches of precipitation as of 6:52 PM, and I would have thought that the snow-precipitation ratio would have been at least 10-1, which would mean at least 4.2 inches of snow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mordecai Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 hour ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Our defending champion @NorthArlington101 takes the lead, with @LittleVillageWx very close behind. Damn @NorthArlington101 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 Damn [mention=9980]NorthArlington101[/mention] haha, I’ll be out very soon unless the pattern falls apart. Nice to be on top for now, though! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: haha, I’ll be out very soon unless the pattern falls apart. Nice to be on top for now, though! I want George to win 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 3 hours ago, RodneyS said: Yes -- three times, including the first winter IAD was open. 1) 1962-63: DCA 21.4, BWI 19.6, IAD 20.6 (and RIC 16.9) 2) 1987-88: DCA 25.0, BWI 20.4, IAD 16.7 (and RIC 12.6) 3) 2001-02: DCA 3.2, BWI 2.3, IAD 2.6 (and RIC the champ at 8.7) By the way, I'm suspicious of the report of only 2.3 inches of snow at IAD yesterday. I live near there and there was quite a bit of light, flaky snow through late afternoon. IAD reported 0.42 inches of precipitation as of 6:52 PM, and I would have thought that the snow-precipitation ratio would have been at least 10-1, which would mean at least 4.2 inches of snow. Glad to see you mentioned that low total, did you notice it tied a record? Maybe the record amount was actually broken but the amount got entered as the value for yesterday as well? I was also expecting to see a value in the 4-5 range, the other three look legit from the reports all around the region. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 17, 2022 Share Posted January 17, 2022 5 hours ago, Roger Smith said: Glad to see you mentioned that low total, did you notice it tied a record? Maybe the record amount was actually broken but the amount got entered as the value for yesterday as well? I was also expecting to see a value in the 4-5 range, the other three look legit from the reports all around the region. I did not notice that the IAD snow amount tied a record yesterday, but something seems amiss if the reported hourly precipitation totals are accurate. By the way, today's IAD report shows an additional 0.2 inches of snow on 0.07 inches of precipitation, but that seems reasonable as the temperature was above freezing while that snow was falling. I just made an inquiry of the lwx webmaster, asking someone to look into yesterday's reported snow total. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 @WxUSAF @Roger Smith @RodneyS I’m seeing my totals everywhere for BWI now, looks like LWX fixed the discrepancy between the CF6/CLI and the NOWData. Let me know if you guys see any anomalies anymore. ETA: I’m aware I need to up IAD and RIC totals, will do later tonight. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 22, 2022 Author Share Posted January 22, 2022 Here's what I have. Haven't looked into who can/can't win too deeply, but I think just glancing at it that the top 3 can all win, Olaf is out for good and MN Transplant could theoretically win if it turns out exactly for him for RIC and IAD. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 I agree with your numbers and analysis. I still think something is wrong with last Sunday's IAD snow report, but I inquired of the lwx webmaster and never heard back. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 22, 2022 Share Posted January 22, 2022 Here's what I have. Haven't looked into who can/can't win too deeply, but I think just glancing at it that the top 3 can all win, Olaf is out for good and MN Transplant could theoretically win if it turns out exactly for him for RIC and IAD.Was hoping I’d be out of it by the end of this week… maybe I start to root for the shutout?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 23, 2022 Share Posted January 23, 2022 If that 18z GFS is onto something, we have a long way to go yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 23, 2022 Author Share Posted January 23, 2022 3 hours ago, Roger Smith said: If that 18z GFS is onto something, we have a long way to go yet. There’s so many DCA busts. If we get another region-wide WWA event, a lot of people are going to be bumped permanently I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 29, 2022 Share Posted January 29, 2022 On 1/22/2022 at 6:50 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Was hoping I’d be out of it by the end of this week… maybe I start to root for the shutout?? It looks as if your hope was realized, assuming the latest snow totals are not revised. They show the following: BWI 13.3, DCA 12.3, IAD 11.4, and RIC 3.6. According to my calculation, that puts Little Village Wx in the lead with 8.0 vs 8.9 for you. However, the best you can do is finish with 5.1 and if you do, Little Village Wx will have 5.0. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 I would need 18 more of those to make my numbers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 30, 2022 Author Share Posted January 30, 2022 Here's what I have. @LittleVillageWx is the current leader. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 9 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Here's what I have. @LittleVillageWx is the current leader. RIC has now been revised to 4.3 inches. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted January 30, 2022 Share Posted January 30, 2022 Great, I only need 16 more of those events then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted January 31, 2022 Author Share Posted January 31, 2022 Updated 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gopper Posted February 12, 2022 Share Posted February 12, 2022 All I need is one decent late Feb./early March blizzard (that turns to rain in Richmond) and I am back in the game! We are due for a fluke blizzard in a Nina! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted February 14, 2022 Author Share Posted February 14, 2022 Updated: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 Yesterday was bad for my yard but good for me in this contest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted February 14, 2022 Share Posted February 14, 2022 1 hour ago, IUsedToHateCold said: Yesterday was bad for my yard but good for me in this contest. I thought you might jump into the lead and close out LittleVillageWx, based on RIC receiving 0.2 inches of snow with 0.04 inches of precipitation. But RIC reported only a trace of snow, and so LVWx is still the leader in the clubhouse. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 On 2/14/2022 at 7:27 AM, PrinceFrederickWx said: Updated: With things looking dire, I feel pretty good about my performance again this year. Would've liked the two-peat but better to lose by going low then by going high! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 I feel the Modoki coming next year, so I may actually "forecast" well above rather than near average. But yeah...not unhappy about my call, even if the winter kind of sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted February 28, 2022 Share Posted February 28, 2022 On 2/14/2022 at 7:27 AM, PrinceFrederickWx said: Updated: Richmond hurting me bad so need one to go by it and brush BWI DCA most excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PrinceFrederickWx Posted March 1, 2022 Author Share Posted March 1, 2022 Just FYI, so you all have time to prepare: this will be the last year I'm holding the snowfall contest. After seven years now, I'm passing it onto someone else. Whomever wants to do it can use this same format, or change it up however they want. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2022 Share Posted March 2, 2022 10 hours ago, PrinceFrederickWx said: Just FYI, so you all have time to prepare: this will be the last year I'm holding the snowfall contest. After seven years now, I'm passing it onto someone else. Whomever wants to do it can use this same format, or change it up however they want. All those years you did it most excellent 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 8, 2022 Share Posted March 8, 2022 Getting interesting again with two snowfall threats coming along. I took the current departures and modified them by total snowfalls of 6" at IAD, 4" at DCA and BWI, and 2" at RIC. This would be the leaderboard top 18 (under 14") after that much extra snowfall. Just hypothetical of course ... I may have missed one or two, the lower third of the current table (from Tullioz to end of table) would mostly improve by the total available which is 16" but other than Tullioz, they would remain outside the top twenty, needing perhaps double the amounts that I used here or more. Most of the people in this list improve two or three and lose some of that on the other one or two. Tullioz is the only person on this list who improves at all four. weatherCCB _________ 6.9" Yoda _________________ 7.1" dmillz25 ______________ 7.3" Avdave _______________ 8.4" Arlwx _________________ 8.7" Gramax Refugee _____ 9.1" southmdwatcher _____ 9.3" RodneyS _____________ 10.1" I Used to Hate Cold __ 10.4" Add1212 _____________ 10.4" Mordecai _____________ 10.5" DeerWhisperer _______ 11.0" Scraff _________________ 11.1" Millville Wx ___________ 11.3" midatlanticweather ___ 11.3" Tullioz ________________ 12.8" Weather53 ___________ 12.9" psuhoffman ___________13.1" ___________________________________ This list would not change much if RIC had no snow or less than 2" because only a few of these forecasters still needed less than 2" at RIC. If they were within 2" their net error would likely not change by 2" but a smaller amount. Another fairly constant factor is that almost all need 6" or more at IAD so whatever happens there up to 6" would not change the list although it might add in some excluded at these numbers. It is the standings for DCA and BWI that are most volatile after relatively small changes. Many of the people on the list here have one good and one bad outcome if four inches fell at both locations. Tullioz is the first forecaster down the current list who can gain at all four locations at amounts mentioned here. Below that level, most would gain the full 16" but are above 30" total now so that means they need more to get total departures under 14". I didn't attempt to figure out if anyone on this list has others "stymied" for any outcomes, probably slight variations on my amounts would place any of these on top. Reality will no doubt be quite different from my projection though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RodneyS Posted March 10, 2022 Share Posted March 10, 2022 On 2/14/2022 at 9:17 AM, RodneyS said: I thought you might jump into the lead and close out LittleVillageWx, based on RIC receiving 0.2 inches of snow with 0.04 inches of precipitation. But RIC reported only a trace of snow, and so LVWx is still the leader in the clubhouse. It looks like LittleVillageWx is going to hold on in Richmond, leaving WEATHER53 as his biggest challenger. If on Saturday BWI gets 0.6 inches, DCA gets 0.2 inches, IAD an inch or so, and RIC 0.1 inch, that puts WEATHER53 into the lead, with limited chances for any more snow this season. I would handicap the win probability as follows: LittleVillageWx 40% WEATHER53 35% IUsedToHateCold 15% Rest of Field: 10% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 11, 2022 Share Posted March 11, 2022 This could get interesting 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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