November 2021

[snowman19]

NOAA’s revised temperature outlook for November: 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

NOAA’s revised temperature outlook for November: 

 

They always go warm lol

 

[snowman19]

Just now, MJO812 said:

They always go warm lol

 

They are cold for part of Alaska lol

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly cloudy and cool. Some widely scattered showers are possible during the afternoon. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50 in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 54°

Newark: 57°

Philadelphia: 52°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 58.6°; 15-Year: 58.7°

Newark: 30-Year: 59.8°; 15-Year: 60.2°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 60.9°; 15-Year: 60.8°

Mainly fair and even cooler weather will continue through the week.

[Allsnow]

Frost and freeze warnings for all of Mt Holly area tonight 

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 49(44/55), -2.

Warmup starts about Nov. 08.      EURO Weeklies had Week 2 BN.

Reached 61 here yesterday.

Today: 55 now and holding or dropping during day, wind w., cloudy.

55*(47%RH) here at 6am. (was 53 at 2am).       54* at 9am.        55* at Noon.      50* at 6pm.

[SnoSki14]

Without blocking it's gonna get warm. The west is getting bombarded with troughs. 

I don't mind it though. By November warm is 60s which is lovely. Climo doesn't favor snow anyway. 

[MJO812]

19 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Without blocking it's gonna get warm. The west is getting bombarded with troughs. 

I don't mind it though. By November warm is 60s which is lovely. Climo doesn't favor snow anyway. 

Agree

Cold weather now Is a waste

[bluewave]

It will be interesting to see how long this over the top warm departure pattern lasts in the monthly means. The pattern has been locked in since last winter. Some months like October were ridiculously warmer than average in the Great Lakes and Northeast. The cooler months like last February still had a mirroring of the pattern with the record cold to the south in Texas.

 

Temperature departures since last winter

 

 

 

[wdrag]

Nothin!  EPS Nov 5-6 will be a bust, and GEFS Nov 8-10 will likely also be a bust. Blame it on what you want, but major (EPS, GEFS) model consensus still prevails on forecasting. (Sorry EPS early Nov snow to I84 is off the books as is my default favoring of the EPS-EC---still need to review all the modeling before committing to a forecast).

What I like...not having to deal with early season snow acc.  I think early season snow tends to negate winter in the big cities of NYC-BOS corridor, even out here in extreme nw NJ. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

So we avoided Oct snows, and the way it looks to me, even the Poconos won't have any snow prior to the 14th.  Maybe we'll actually have winter in winter (late Dec-mid March)  That would be novel. 

I edited the body of the originating thread to add in the CP departure of +4.1F for October, so we have it for the eventual Nov wrap comparison. 

Also, saw the comments about global marine +/- departure blobs shaping the feedback 500MB pattern.  I'm not too sure which comes first... ENSO driving blobs or blobs are importantly modifying ENSO impact.  Think if we knew that for sure, we'd have greater success at figuring out seasonal patterns. 

I wonder if anything will occur that will abruptly change the pattern late this fall?

[White Gorilla]

54 minutes ago, wdrag said:

Nothin!  EPS Nov 5-6 will be a bust, and GEFS Nov 8-10 will likely also be a bust. Blame it on what you want, but major (EPS, GEFS) model consensus still prevails on forecasting. (Sorry EPS early Nov snow to I84 is off the books as is my default favoring of the EPS-EC---still need to review all the modeling before committing to a forecast).

What I like...not having to deal with early season snow acc.  I think early season snow tends to negate winter in the big cities of NYC-BOS corridor, even out here in extreme nw NJ. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

So we avoided Oct snows, and the way it looks to me, even the Poconos won't have any snow prior to the 14th.  Maybe we'll actually have winter in winter (late Dec-mid March)  That would be novel. 

I edited the body of the originating thread to add in the CP departure of +4.1F for October, so we have it for the eventual Nov wrap comparison. 

Also, saw the comments about global marine +/- departure blobs shaping the feedback 500MB pattern.  I'm not too sure which comes first... ENSO driving blobs or blobs are importantly modifying ENSO impact.  Think if we knew that for sure, we'd have greater success at figuring out seasonal patterns. 

I wonder if anything will occur that will abruptly change the pattern late this fall?

Yeah, winter during winter would be a nice change.  A white Christmas for all too would be sweet. One can dream. 

[bluewave]

56 minutes ago, wdrag said:

What I like...not having to deal with early season snow acc.  I think early season snow tends to negate winter in the big cities of NYC-BOS corridor, even out here in extreme nw NJ. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

The sample size during the 1991-2020 climate normals period for measurable snow before December is small. But we have done better in seasonal snowfall when the early season measurable snow was in late November. The snowy November 2012 provides an interesting case. While we had the record early November snow, there was a smaller measurable event later that month. So the 12-13 winter did very well on snowfall further east on Long Island with Nemo record snow in February. 
 

Late October to mid November measurable snows at Newark and seasonal snowfall
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 25 to Nov 20	Seasonal   Snowfall
1	2018-11-20	6.4	22.0
2	2012-11-20	6.2	29.5 Islip 46.9
3	2011-11-20	5.2	8.8
4	2007-11-20	0.4	14.6
5	1997-11-20	0.2	6.9

 

Late November measurable snow at Newark and seasonal snowfall

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Nov 21 to Nov 30	Seasonal Snowfall
1	1995-11-30	3.0	78.4
2	2014-11-30	1.4	46.4
3	2002-11-30	0.6	53.1
4	2012-11-30	0.4	29.5  Islip 46.9

 

 

[EastonSN+]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

Nothin!  EPS Nov 5-6 will be a bust, and GEFS Nov 8-10 will likely also be a bust. Blame it on what you want, but major (EPS, GEFS) model consensus still prevails on forecasting. (Sorry EPS early Nov snow to I84 is off the books as is my default favoring of the EPS-EC---still need to review all the modeling before committing to a forecast).

What I like...not having to deal with early season snow acc.  I think early season snow tends to negate winter in the big cities of NYC-BOS corridor, even out here in extreme nw NJ. Please correct me if I'm wrong.

So we avoided Oct snows, and the way it looks to me, even the Poconos won't have any snow prior to the 14th.  Maybe we'll actually have winter in winter (late Dec-mid March)  That would be novel. 

I edited the body of the originating thread to add in the CP departure of +4.1F for October, so we have it for the eventual Nov wrap comparison. 

Also, saw the comments about global marine +/- departure blobs shaping the feedback 500MB pattern.  I'm not too sure which comes first... ENSO driving blobs or blobs are importantly modifying ENSO impact.  Think if we knew that for sure, we'd have greater success at figuring out seasonal patterns. 

I wonder if anything will occur that will abruptly change the pattern late this fall?

Hey Walt

I believe 1995 and 2002 saw accumulating snow in November, each of which became great winters overall. 

[nycwinter]

boring weather pattern..

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

boring weather pattern..

yep dry and average to maybe slightly below average at times...yawn city

the most exciting thing might be the time change this weekend...LOL

[uncle W]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

The sample size during the 1991-2020 climate normals period for measurable snow before December is small. But we have done better in seasonal snowfall when the early season measurable snow was in late November. The snowy November 2012 provides an interesting case. While we had the record early November snow, there was a smaller measurable event later that month. So the 12-13 winter did very well on snowfall further east on Long Island with Nemo record snow in February. 
 

Late October to mid November measurable snows at Newark and seasonal snowfall
 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Oct 25 to Nov 20	Seasonal   Snowfall
1	2018-11-20	6.4	22.0
2	2012-11-20	6.2	29.5 Islip 46.9
3	2011-11-20	5.2	8.8
4	2007-11-20	0.4	14.6
5	1997-11-20	0.2	6.9

 

Late November measurable snow at Newark and seasonal snowfall

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Ending Date	Total Snowfall Nov 21 to Nov 30	Seasonal Snowfall
1	1995-11-30	3.0	78.4
2	2014-11-30	1.4	46.4
3	2002-11-30	0.6	53.1
4	2012-11-30	0.4	29.5  Islip 46.9

 

 

going back some years...

1978...29.2"...major storm...

1967...19.5"...dry cold winter...

1959...39.2"...major storm...

1952...15.1"...winter ended mid January...

[wdrag]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Hey Walt

I believe 1995 and 2002 saw accumulating snow in November, each of which became great winters overall. 

Where??? I'll check XMACIS as best  can. 

I think Bluewave has more or less concurred with his data presentation that later in Nov is better than early in Nov or even Oct.  My only caveat on this IFFFF in the rare instance we have a colder than normal OCT """AND""" NOV, Then we'd be heading for a 76-77 winter, if I'm not mistaken.  Not to worry this season. 

[EastonSN+]

1 minute ago, wdrag said:

Where??? I'll check XMACIS as best  can. 

I think Bluewave has more or less concurred with his data presentation that later in Nov is better than early in Nov or even Oct.  My only caveat on this IFFFF in the rare instance we have a colder than normal OCT """AND""" NOV, Then we'd be heading for a 76-77 winter, if I'm not mistaken.  Not to worry this season. 

This was for SW CT. Definitely late November snowfalls on each occasion. Oddly enough I believe both years we had snow in April too. 

[uncle W]

I forgot 1989...it ended after November...

[winterwx21]

4 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

Without blocking it's gonna get warm. The west is getting bombarded with troughs. 

I don't mind it though. By November warm is 60s which is lovely. Climo doesn't favor snow anyway. 

Yeah next week looks beautiful with high temps in the low 60s. Maybe mid 60s late week. Well above normal, but still feels like nice cool Fall weather. Perfect for November. Hopefully it will flip to a colder pattern in December when it matters for snow opportunities.

 

I'm hoping we can just barely avoid the frost the next several nights to get to next week's warmer weather and really extend the growing season. It continues to looks like a very close call with temps getting down to mid 30s for our area.

[Dark Star]

5 hours ago, snowman19 said:

They are cold for part of Alaska lol

More chance of being right if you go warm...

[RippleEffect]

4 hours ago, MJO812 said:

Agree

Cold weather now Is a waste

no you want it to be cold from now on, usually if it starts warm like this, it's going to be a warm and rainy winter. we want it to either be dry and cool or cold and rainy around this time of the year. lately it's just warm and rainy and just warm!

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

no you want it to be cold from now on, usually if it starts warm like this, it's going to be a warm and rainy winter. we want it to either be dry and cool or cold and rainy around this time of the year. lately it's just warm and rainy and just warm!

Uh

[wdrag]

34 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This was for SW CT. Definitely late November snowfalls on each occasion. Oddly enough I believe both years we had snow in April too. 

OK,  so I won't check--thanks... my reference to 76-77 was probably my experience up in SNE which was a good winter.  Down here NYC area to PHL, nothing special. 

Just have to wait it out for this winter. Wait, and wait ,and wait?  Hope it won't be forever...

 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 hour ago, Dark Star said:

More chance of being right if you go warm...

Exactly because warm rules the climate....sad but true. 

[Great Snow 1717]

9 hours ago, snowman19 said:

NOAA’s revised temperature outlook for November: 

 

As things stand right now it would be difficult to argue the opposite.

[Brian5671]

48 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Exactly because warm rules the climate....sad but true. 

Last 5-6 winters have been warm overall.   Last truly cold stretch was 13-14 and 14-15 combos

[CIK62]

[snowman19]

1 hour ago, Brian5671 said:

Last 5-6 winters have been warm overall.   Last truly cold stretch was 13-14 and 14-15 combos

If November turns out to be another above normal month, this will be one of the warmest met falls (Sept - Nov) in history 

[the_other_guy]

6 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

Yeah, winter during winter would be a nice change.  A white Christmas for all too would be sweet. One can dream. 

The problem is, historically, if you’re dealing with a very warm fall… And this is almost like an El Niño fall… You’re going to get a crappy Winter if you like winter.

Temperature wise, the best thing that could happen is in November at or slightly below normal. But if we’re shooting for 72 next week… And I think those are usually extreme (on the warm side) this far out…You could start to see a clearer picture of where we’re headed