November 2021

[Cfa]

Light snow in Huntington. First flakes I’ve seen.

[psv88]

45 minutes ago, lee59 said:

If they have not gotten to freezing yet, they are not a good representation of our area,at all.

our area meaning the suburbs, yes. Of the urban areas of Queens, it is accurate. 

[psv88]

More snow in commack, thats 4 of the past 7 days with snow in the air.

[lee59]

Rain and snow here

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It’s representative of all our local stations on the water. The SSTs have been running very warm. Plus the CAA hasn’t been very impressive this month due to the strong Pacific influence.
 

Stations right on the water bolded

 

Regional Weather Roundup
National Weather Service New York NY
700 AM EST TUE NOV 30 2021

Note: "FAIR" indicates few or no clouds below 12,000 feet with no
significant weather and/or obstructions to visibility.

NYZ071-072-176-178-NJZ106-104-301300-
New York City Metro Area

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Central Park   CLOUDY    34  21  59 CALM      30.04S
World Trd Ctr  NOT AVBL
Bronx Lehman C   N/A     34  23  64 W3          N/A
LaGuardia Arpt MOCLDY    35  20  54 CALM      30.03S
Queens College   N/A     34  23  64 S2          N/A
Kennedy Intl   MOCLDY    31  24  75 SW5       30.05R WCI  26
Breezy Point     N/A     36 N/A N/A W6          N/A  WCI  31
Brooklyn Coll    N/A     34  25  69 S5          N/A  WCI  30
Staten Island    N/A     32  25  74 S3          N/A
Newark/Liberty MOCLDY    32  23  69 SW5       30.03S WCI  27
Teterboro      CLOUDY    29  22  75 CALM      30.02S
$$

NYZ177-179-078>081-301300-
Long Island New York

CITY           SKY/WX    TMP DP  RH WIND       PRES   REMARKS
Jones Beach      N/A     34 N/A N/A W5          N/A  WCI  30
Wantagh          N/A     30  23  74 SW3         N/A
Hempstead      NOT AVBL
Matinecock Pt    N/A     36 N/A N/A SW8         N/A  WCI  29
Farmingdale    PTCLDY    29  20  69 CALM      30.04R
MacArthur/ISP  PTCLDY    24  19  81 SW3       30.03R
Stony Brook      N/A     30  25  80 SW2         N/A
Shirley        PTCLDY    23  18  81 CALM      30.03R
Mt Sinai Harb    N/A     32 N/A N/A SW2         N/A
Westhampton    PTCLDY    16  12  84 CALM      30.04R
East Hampton   FAIR      28  20  70 CALM      30.02R
Southold         N/A     32  25  74 NW5         N/A  WCI  27
Montauk          N/A     33  22  63 NW12G20   30.02R WCI  24

 

I agree if you live right on the water, they are a fair representation. However the vast majority of the area probably 99%, has been below freezing already.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

Very true.  I'll often look at the private weather stations on windermap and the difference between those within a mile or so of the water and those farther inland has been large.  I actually had about a two week longer growing season than places a mile south of here.  FWIW, I think similar happens along the Lake Ontario shore.

Yeah, just going a few miles from the water in weak CAA patterns makes a big difference. This month has been very dry with light winds at night. So the areas away from the direct influence of SSTs still in the 50s were able to radiate. Islip had warmer high temperatures this month and cooler lows.  Novembers with true Arctic outbreaks like we had a few years ago usually have colder highs and lows. 
 

ISP NOV 

Max…+0.8

Min….-2.3

[Stormlover74]

 

 

[donsutherland1]

November is concluding with a mean temperature of 46.2° in New York City. That is 1.8° below the 1991-2020 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow will turn somewhat milder. Ahead of the next cold front, Thursday will be unseasonably mild. No Arctic blasts appear likely for the foreseeable future.

First measurable snowfall statistics for select cities:

Allentown: Normal: December 6; 2020-21: December 9
Bridgeport: Normal: December 3; 2020-21: December 16
Islip: Normal: December 10; 2020-21: December 16
New York City: Normal: December 13; 2020-21: December 16
Newark: Normal: December 9; 2020-21: December 9; 2021-22: November 28
Philadelphia: Normal: December 19; 2020-21: December 16

Out West, Denver has yet to see its first measurable snowfall through November 29. The previous record latest first measurable snowfall occurred on November 21, 1934.

Phoenix is wrapping up its 2nd warmest November on record. All three November cases with a mean temperature of 70° or above occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1895. Las Vegas is concluding its warmest November on record. All six November cases with a mean temperature of 60° or above have occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1937.

Atlantic blocking (AO and NAO) is now breaking down. As a result, temperatures will likely turn milder for at least a time. Although the first 10 days of December will likely average somewhat cooler than normal overall from a lag in the pattern response to the breakdown in Atlantic blocking, the first half of the month overall could wind up near normal or somewhat warmer than normal. Afterward, developments related to the EPO and AO could determine the outcome for much of the remainder of the month. For now, there remains uncertainty about the evolution of the teleconnections. However, it appears somewhat more likely than not that December will see a warm anomaly in the Northeast.

Fall 2021 was wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there were 9  prior August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Final fall rainfall in New York City was 16.41".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +11.20 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.632 today.

On November 28 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.013 (RMM). The November 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.111 (RMM).

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said:

November is concluding with a mean temperature of 46.2° in New York City. That is 1.8° below the 1991-2020 normal monthly value.

Tomorrow will turn somewhat milder. Ahead of the next cold front, Thursday will be unseasonably mild. No Arctic blasts appear likely for the foreseeable future.

First measurable snowfall statistics for select cities:

Allentown: Normal: December 6; 2020-21: December 9
Bridgeport: Normal: December 3; 2020-21: December 16
Islip: Normal: December 10; 2020-21: December 16
New York City: Normal: December 13; 2020-21: December 16
Newark: Normal: December 9; 2020-21: December 9; 2021-22: November 28
Philadelphia: Normal: December 19; 2020-21: December 16

Out West, Denver has yet to see its first measurable snowfall through November 29. The previous record latest first measurable snowfall occurred on November 21, 1934.

Phoenix is wrapping up its 2nd warmest November on record. All three November cases with a mean temperature of 70° or above occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1895. Las Vegas is concluding its warmest November on record. All six November cases with a mean temperature of 60° or above have occurred since 2000. Records go back to 1937.

Atlantic blocking (AO and NAO) is now breaking down. As a result, temperatures will likely turn milder for at least a time. Although the first 10 days of December will likely average somewhat cooler than normal overall from a lag in the pattern response to the breakdown in Atlantic blocking, the first half of the month overall could wind up near normal or somewhat warmer than normal. Afterward, developments related to the EPO and AO could determine the outcome for much of the remainder of the month. For now, there remains uncertainty about the evolution of the teleconnections. However, it appears somewhat more likely than not that December will see a warm anomaly in the Northeast.

Fall 2021 was wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there were 9  prior August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Final fall rainfall in New York City was 16.41".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.7°C for the week centered around November 24. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.80°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.90°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +11.20 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.632 today.

On November 28 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.013 (RMM). The November 27-adjusted amplitude was 1.111 (RMM).

 

Don with all the warm anomalies out west is it possible that this winter could see coast to coast warmth with all the cold confined to Alaska?

 

[lee59]

Snow in the air twice this week. Tomorrow starts meteorological winter but it seems to have started a few days early.

[donsutherland1]

1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

Don with all the warm anomalies out west is it possible that this winter could see coast to coast warmth with all the cold confined to Alaska?

 

There’s some risk of such an outcome, but I think we’ll have some opportunities for cold and snow despite a warmer than normal winter overall.

[Rjay]

4 hours ago, donsutherland1 said:

November is concluding with a mean temperature of 46.2° in New York City. That is 1.8° below the 1991-2020 normal monthly value.

 

I was off by .3 

[RippleEffect]

9 hours ago, Stormlover74 said:

Congrats..they made it down to 27 this morning.

Probably won't see that number again until after the solstice 

i think we'll get below that way before the winter solstice. we have exactly 3 weeks to do that, we have a warm up but usually warm ups around this time of the year cool down as the models get closer to the dates. ironically the opposite happens after the nighttime cooling peaked which is when winter begins, models moderate cold fronts as they closer to the event. similarly it happens during spring time models could say 75 for let's May 10th and we actually get closer to May 10th they'll print out  78-80 degrees and after the summer starts models print out 95 degrees in 10 days let's say august 10th but by august 8th they'll print out 92. though a lot of times summer it over performs because of global warming! the sun is just stronger nowadays i guess. i have managed to find this trend, you guys can look at this yourselves. 

[Rjay]

 

On 11/1/2021 at 7:10 PM, snowman19 said:

This has been the risk all along…warmer as we get further along in time….the models keep overestimating the “cold” in the long range. The beat goes on……November most likely turns out to be another AN month…..

Brrrrr 

[Rjay]

I'm definitely going AN for December though.  

[RippleEffect]

Just now, Rjay said:

I'm definitely going AN for December though.  

how about winter temps and winter snowfall? can we make a poll or discussion mr? lol

[Stormlover74]

Just now, Rjay said:

I'm definitely going AN for December though.  

Yep +5 ewr +3.5 nyc is my guess

[Rjay]

Just now, RippleEffect said:

how about winter temps and winter snowfall? can we make a poll or discussion mr? lol

My default is AN temps and AN snowfall but I'm going with AN temps and BN snowfall.  Let's hope I'm wrong. 

[Rjay]

Just now, Stormlover74 said:

Yep +5 ewr +3.5 nyc is my guess

+2.5 for nyc is what I'm going with.   

[RippleEffect]

9 minutes ago, Rjay said:

My default is AN temps and AN snowfall but I'm going with AN temps and BN snowfall.  Let's hope I'm wrong. 

i'm going with normal temps and frequent small storms averaging to just below normal snowfall! let's hope i'm wrong i want wall to wall snow and cold!

[donsutherland1]

25 minutes ago, Rjay said:

I was off by .3 

You did an outstanding job.

[eduggs]

Saw flakes 5 days in a row to end November. That's uncommon even in the heart of winter.

[doncat]

November finished with a -1.5° temp departure...Precip of 1.23" is the 4th lowest for Nov in 40 years. Lowest temp was 26° and highest of 70°.

[bluewave]

Several stations across the region has their warmest fall on record. Nearly all finished in the top 10 warmest. This record fall warmth has been a common theme in recent years.

Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	54.9	0
2	2011	54.3	6
3	2017	54.2	0
4	2015	54.1	0
5	2020	53.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for CALDWELL ESSEX COUNTY AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	59.5	3
2	2020	58.4	0
3	2015	58.0	0
4	2016	57.6	0
5	2017	57.2	0

 

Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2021	61.3	0
2	2015	60.9	0
3	1971	60.4	0
-	1961	60.4	0
4	2017	60.3	0
-	1990	60.3	0
5	2016	60.1	0
-	2011	60.1	0

 

Time Series Summary for FARMINGDALE REPUBLIC AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	59.8	0
2	2021	59.2	0
3	2016	59.0	7
4	2020	58.9	2
-	2017	58.9	0
-	2005	58.9	1
5	2011	58.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2017	58.8	0
2	2015	58.6	0
3	2021	58.5	0
-	2011	58.5	0
4	1990	58.1	0
5	2016	58.0	0
6	2020	57.7	0
-	2005	57.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for LAGUARDIA AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2016	62.5	0
2	2021	62.1	0
3	2015	61.9	0
-	2007	61.9	0
-	2005	61.9	0
4	2020	61.8	0
5	2017	61.7	0

 

Time Series Summary for JFK INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2015	61.1	0
2	1971	60.8	0
3	2016	60.2	0
4	2021	60.0	0
-	2017	60.0	0
5	1983	59.8	0
-	1961	59.8	0
6	2011	59.5	0
7	2005	59.4	0
8	2020	59.2	0
-	1985	59.2	0
9	1990	59.1	0
10	2010	59.0	0
-	2007	59.0	0
-	1970	59.0	0

 

Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CT
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2016	59.1	0
2	2011	59.0	0
3	2015	58.9	0
4	2017	58.8	0
5	1973	58.6	0
6	2021	58.4	0
7	2020	58.3	0
8	1977	58.2	0
9	1975	57.9	0
10	2007	57.8	0

 

Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	58.4	0
2	1931	58.3	0
3	2021	58.1	0
4	1975	57.7	0
5	1927	57.5	0
6	2017	57.4	0
-	1946	57.4	0
7	2015	57.3	0
-	1983	57.3	0
8	1990	57.1	0
9	1953	57.0	0
10	1971	56.9	0
-	1961	56.9	0

 

Time Series Summary for Caribou Area, ME (ThreadEx)
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Year	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
1	2011	47.8	0
2	2017	47.7	0
3	2021	47.5	0
4	2016	47.3	0
5	1961	46.7	0
6	2001	46.4	0
7	2015	46.2	0
8	2020	45.8	0
9	1999	45.6	0
10	1970	45.3	0
-	1957	45.3	0

[wdrag]

Yesterdays (Nov 30) elevated snow accumulations... most of it melted as it fell below 1000 feet.  (Click for the detail)

 

Nov ended up a little light on activity but the Nov 13 severe weather event (hail/tors) stood out.  Temps skidded...from the +4.1 departure of October to the -1.8 at CP for Nov. Precip was well below normal for Nov.

 

At 620 PM: Added November departure from normal precip, percent of normal precip, departure from normal temp and total November snowfall at a few CoCoRaHs stations.

[Rjay]

On 11/30/2021 at 9:49 PM, Stormlover74 said:

Yep +5 ewr +3.5 nyc is my guess

 

On 11/30/2021 at 9:50 PM, Rjay said:

+2.5 for nyc is what I'm going with.   

+17 lol