November 2021

[ebwx]

Light snow crossing the Outerbridge at 1am this morning

[lee59]

Trace of snow here, car tops and some roof tops have a light coating.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be variably cloudy and cold. Some snow flurries and snow showers are possible, especially this morning. The areas with the highest chance of measurable snow are to the north and west of Newark, New York City, and Bridgeport. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 43°

Newark: 46°

Philadelphia: 45°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 49.7°; 15-Year: 50.0°

Newark: 30-Year: 50.3°; 15-Year: 50.7°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 51.3°; 15-Year: 51.8°

The cool weather will continue through the remainder of November.

[nyrangers1022]

Light dusting on non paved surfaces.   Only 4 more months of this crap

[Allsnow]

High of only 39 yesterday at the park. That’s a impressive high for late November 

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

High of only 39 yesterday at the park. That’s a impressive high for late November 

That’s an error caused by the delayed leaf drop keeping thr ASOS in the shade. Even HPN made it to 40°. The temperatures won’t become reliable until the dense canopy finally drops  all its leaves. 
 

EWR 43

NYC 39

JFK 41

LGA 42

HPN 40

[Mr. Kevin]

3 minutes ago, bluewave said:

That’s an error caused by the delayed leaf drop keeping thr ASOS in the shade. Even HPN made it to 40°. The temperatures won’t become reliable until the dense canopy finally drops  all its leaves. 
 

EWR 43

NYC 39

JFK 41

LGA 42

HPN 40

Chris, have you seen the updated mjo charts? Not sure how accurate the gefs bc is. Thought it looked decent so far

[the_other_guy]

34F Light snow/ice

[lee59]

On and off light snow and flurries all morning

[MJO812]

Light snow showers right now in Brooklyn 

[tdp146]

Snowflakes. Gonna be a cold day raking leaves. 

[the_other_guy]

Past two years I’ve put up the Christmas lights in 50° weather. I’ve taken them down in 50° weather

 

These past three days of light hanging have been windy cold rainy and now snowy.

I will take this as a good sign going forward

[Rjay]

Had my first flakes

[LibertyBell]

28 minutes ago, Rjay said:

Had my first flakes

and first stickage on roofs and cars although I wasn't awake to see it fall. No way was I going to be up at 6 am lol.

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s an error caused by the delayed leaf drop keeping thr ASOS in the shade. Even HPN made it to 40°. The temperatures won’t become reliable until the dense canopy finally drops  all its leaves. 
 

EWR 43

NYC 39

JFK 41

LGA 42

HPN 40

lol thats awesome this is what it would be in the summer

EWR 93

NYC 89

JFK 91

LGA 92

HPN 90

[LibertyBell]

3 hours ago, nyrangers1022 said:

Light dusting on non paved surfaces.   Only 4 more months of this crap

didnt even see it fall but saw the coatings for about 30 min before it melted

 

[the_other_guy]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s an error caused by the delayed leaf drop keeping thr ASOS in the shade. Even HPN made it to 40°. The temperatures won’t become reliable until the dense canopy finally drops  all its leaves. 
 

EWR 43

NYC 39

JFK 41

LGA 42

HPN 40

What is the current leaf situation in Central Park? You keep saying this and you get a bunch of people to like it.  I don’t see a thick canopy of leaves anywhere… Let alone enough to throw a temperature.

 

Has anybody actually been in the park and observed these conditions?

[bluewave]

40 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

What is the current leaf situation in Central Park? You keep saying this and you get a bunch of people to like it.  I don’t see a thick canopy of leaves anywhere… Let alone enough to throw a temperature.

 

Has anybody actually been in the park and observed these conditions?

I posted the recent photos of the delayed Manhattan leaf drop a few days ago. You probably don’t remember when the Central Park high temperatures were on par with EWR and LGA.  They installed the new ASOS under a stand of trees in the 1990s that grew into a dense canopy over the last 30 years. The old thermometer used to be in the open area near the castle with no trees shading the sensor. So when you take high temperature readings under a dense canopy of trees, it can be several degrees cooler than in a nearby open field depending on the weather conditions. That’s why you can’t take official temperature measurements directly underneath trees. Even rural weather stations like at the NWS in Upton are located in a clearing away from trees. They would never place their equipment out there underneath the dense natural pine barrens in that area. All part of the standardization process of how official weather measurements are taken.

 

[LibertyBell]

48 minutes ago, bluewave said:

I posted the recent photos of the delayed Manhattan leaf drop a few days ago. You probably don’t remember when the Central Park high temperatures were on par with EWR and LGA.  They installed the new ASOS under a stand of trees in the 1990s that grew into a dense canopy over the last 30 years. The old thermometer used to be in the open area near the castle with no trees shading the sensor. So when you take high temperature readings under a dense canopy of trees, it can be several degrees cooler than in a nearby open field depending on the weather conditions. That’s why you can’t take official temperature measurements directly underneath trees. Even rural weather stations like at the NWS in Upton are located in a clearing away from trees. They would never place their equipment out there underneath the dense natural pine barrens in that area. All part of the standardization process of how official weather measurements are taken.

 

I think we need to get rid of these ASOS entirely, they dont measure wind accurately either and they don't properly identity precip type.  The equipment we had before was perfectly fine and accurate why all this waste of money into something that isn't any more accurate?

#DEFUNDASOS

[TugHillMatt]

That's just crazy that there is still that much foliage on the trees there! I am returning from Tennessee today and even there the trees were almost all entirely bare.

I guess those mild nights with barely any radiational cooling keeps the leaves on longer in NYC. They have had numerous nights in the 20s where I was in TN.

[the_other_guy]

I don’t know. I just drove through the Bronx and across Queens… There really isn’t enough foliage on any of these trees to shift a daytime temperature at this point.

I mean we’re talking about yesterday 

Furthermore, look at the observations from yesterday:

I bracketed the daytime observation where foliage covering the sun would be an issue.

It was overcast through 1pm with some cloud cover through at least 3pm.

A clear observation was finally made after sunset.

 

I appreciate what you were saying, but I think whatever foliage is left is not much of a factor especially on a day that was mostly overcast.

To dismiss the observation as inaccurate is a bit disingenuous especially when they are within a degree or two of the region

 

 

[forkyfork]

32 minutes ago, jfklganyc said:

I don’t know. I just drove through the Bronx and across Queens… There really isn’t enough foliage on any of these trees to shift a daytime temperature at this point.

I mean we’re talking about yesterday 

Furthermore, look at the observations from yesterday:

I bracketed the daytime observation where foliage covering the sun would be an issue.

It was overcast through 1pm with some cloud cover through at least 3pm.

A clear observation was finally made after sunset.

 

I appreciate what you were saying, but I think whatever foliage is left is not much of a factor especially on a day that was mostly overcast.

To dismiss the observation as inaccurate is a bit disingenuous especially when they are within a degree or two of the region

 

 

even the suburbs hit 40 yesterday. come on

[Rjay]

5 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

even the suburbs hit 40 yesterday. come on

POU hit 40 

[bluewave]

Changing the NYC temperature measurements to underneath a dense tree canopy in the 1990s has had a big impact on the high temperatures while the trees still have leaves on them. The older NYC thermometer out in the open like the other official stations prior to the 1990s was more in line with EWR and LGA. Once the leaves drop over the next week or so, the highs will be similar to LGA and EWR again. NYC has experienced an artificial reduction in annual 90° days since the 1990s due to the foliage blocking the sensor. But winter 50° days have increased at similar rate to EWR and LGA. Those bare trees during the winter don’t block nearly as much sun as the fully leafed out trees do. So open areas of Central Park probably have closer to 23 to 25 days reaching 90° as opposed the 17 located in the deep shade. That’s how big a difference it makes when you take temperatures under a dense tree canopy instead of an open field.

EWR 90° days

1961-1990…..23……1991-2020…..28……+5

NYC

1961-1990…..18……1991-2020…..17………-1

LGA

1961-1990….14…….1991-2020….22……..+8

 

EWR winter 50° days

1961-1990….16……1991-2020…..23…….+7

NYC

1961-1990….16…..1991-2020…..22……..+6

LGA

1961-1990….14……1991-2020…22………+8

[NorthShoreWx]

7 hours ago, bluewave said:

That’s an error caused by the delayed leaf drop keeping thr ASOS in the shade. Even HPN made it to 40°. The temperatures won’t become reliable until the dense canopy finally drops  all its leaves. 
 

EWR 43

NYC 39

JFK 41

LGA 42

HPN 40

I remember when temperatures were supposed to be measured in the shade.

[donsutherland1]

Light snow and flurries fell across the region today. A few places picked up a  coating of snow. Newark received 0.1" of snow.In the wake of the weak system responsible for the snowfall, dry but cool weather will follow into the middle of the week.

First measurable snowfall statistics for select cities:

Allentown: Normal: December 6; 2020-21: December 9
Bridgeport: Normal: December 3; 2020-21: December 16
Islip: Normal: December 10; 2020-21: December 16
New York City: Normal: December 13; 2020-21: December 16
Newark: Normal: December 9; 2020-21: December 9; 2021-22: November 28
Philadelphia: Normal: December 19; 2020-21: December 16

Out West, near record to record warmth prevailed in a number of cities. Records included: Helena: 65° (old record: 56°, 2014) and Portland: 63° (old record: 59°, 1940). The temperature at Helena was the highest on record this late in the season.

As the ongoing blocking weakens over the next week, temperatures will likely turn milder for at least a time starting during the first week of December. The probability of a relatively mild EPO+/AO+ pattern through at least the first half of December has increased in recent days.

Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 28 4 pm is 16.41".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +6.42 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -1.184 today.

On November 26 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.251 (RMM). The November 25-adjusted amplitude was 1.177 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied near 100% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.2° (1.8° below normal).

 

[coastalplainsnowman]

1 minute ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I remember when temperatures were supposed to be measured in the shade.

Does this mean that the measured daytime temperatures at this time each year are influenced by the timing of when most of the leaves have fallen?

[Dark Star]

27 minutes ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I remember when temperatures were supposed to be measured in the shade.

The sensors are placed in a vented box, but they don't have to be "in the shade".  

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, NorthShoreWx said:

I remember when temperatures were supposed to be measured in the shade.

The thermometer needs to be in a fan aspirated radiation shield which all ASOS, NCDC, and mesonet weather stations have. But the sensor itself can’t be located under a dense canopy of trees which will keep it several degrees cooler than surrounding open grassy fields. The NY mesonet site has a great video on the proper sitting of weather sensors near heavily wooded areas away from tall trees.

NYC ASOS violates official sitting rules 

http://www.weather2000.com/ASOS/NYC_ASOS.html

You can imagine how much denser the canopy has become since the 2013 photo and 2003 story.

 

Central Park Weather: Vegetative Overgrowth Affecting Weather Readings - WABC-TV

(New York-WABC, August 22, 2003) - Forecasting the weather is not easy.
Government equipment can often be blamed for giving faulty weather
information. As Bill Evans explains, a big culprit may be some of the
equipment buried in Central Park.

Rainfall, snowfall, and the temperature are all vital information
recorded 24 hours a day at the weather station located in the heart of
Central Park.

But meteorologists like Michael Schlacter have serious concerns about the
accuracy of the stations data. It sits amid overgrown vegetation and he
says thats the problem. The leaves can trigger snow gauges and trees can
warp rain and wind measurements. On this hot day, a temperature gauge is
in the shade instead of direct sunlight.

Michael Schlacter, Weather 2000: "Its kind of like driving a car
without a speedometer, odometer, and gas gauge. You are running with
false information."

The weather instruments at Belvedere Castle have long adorned the top.
There used to be a government meteorologist here in the city to keep an
eye on them. But now the nearest meteorologist is 60 miles that way.

But National Weather Service meteorologists say they knew the weather
readings in the park would never be as keenly accurate as the ones at
the airports where guidelines prevent foliage from being within 100 feet
of the station.

Schlacter: "We knew that at times we would have flaky readings, that
leaves would fall in gauges, that we would have problems with
visibility sensors."

[NWS Meteorologist-in-Charge Michael] Wyllie says the weather station is
there because it was historically significant to maintain its presence
in the park.

He says theres been a lot of growth because of the wet spring at so much
in fact that temperatures have routinely been recorded lower in the park
than at the airports.

Wyllie: "We are actually having a micro climate system there because of
the vegetation."

Imperfect perhaps but nonetheless the system provides the official record
of weather for the country's largest city. And Michael Schlacter says
its a city that deserves better.

Schlacter: "I think New Yorkers deserve a lot better, and I think they
deserve the best weather station money can buy."


Copyright 2003 ABC Inc., WABC-TV Inc.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 hours ago, forkyfork said:

even the suburbs hit 40 yesterday. come on

I think people care about it less now lol.  The summer 89s really piss me off.  Why cant the feds come in with chainsaws and just knock down all the trees within a 30 feet radius? If they can arrest a police union leader without telling the locals they should be able to chop down a few trees.....