bluewave Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 hour ago, IrishRob17 said: GFS has me going below freezing Wednesday morning with the Euro saying its Thursday morning. The IMBY average first freezing date is 10/21. Looks like this will be the second latest freeze at POU after 1995 and 1971. They came close last week but only made it down to 34°. Posters wouldn’t mind if even a fraction of that 1995 analog worked out going forward. Frost/Freeze Summary for Poughkeepsie Area, NY (ThreadEx)Each section contains date and year of occurrence, value on that date.Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Last Value First Value Season Length 1995 - - 11-05 (1995) 32 - 1971 04-24 (1971) 30 11-05 (1971) 30 194 1975 04-22 (1975) 25 10-30 (1975) 31 190 2007 04-21 (2007) 32 10-29 (2007) 27 190 1942 04-14 (1942) 27 10-29 (1942) 32 197 2011 04-22 (2011) 27 10-28 (2011) 28 188 2013 05-14 (2013) 30 10-24 (2013) 31 162 2005 05-13 (2005) 32 10-24 (2005) 31 163 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: As long as you have troughing over AK and the GOA (+EPO), you aren’t getting arctic cold. That has to change. All -NAO/-AO would do is bring down PAC maritime junk air in that setup. I think we end up with yet another above normal month Agree 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 another numbers busting day-got up to 64 here 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Not much of a change on the extended EPS from last week. Cool down for the first week of November with coldest departures remaining to our SW. Then we see a rebound in temperatures for the second week of the month. Nov 1-8 Nov 8-15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 6 hours ago, uncle W said: in the winter time after a winter storm there is usually another storm in the forecast...I can remember that going back to the March 1960 storm...most of the time the storm never came or was minor...The video of the 1967 blizzard on you tube says another storm is on the horizen...that turned out to be a 2" event... Back then it was hard to be accurate 3 days out.Snow tomorrow turned out Partly Cloudy numerous times in the 60's. I remember after the blizzard of 78 they were hyping another snowstorm 3 days out. I guess it went out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 The weather will continue to turn noticeably cooler as the week progresses. Tomorrow will be among the coolest days so far this fall. The cool weather likely won't be sustained. A warming trend will likely commence during the second week of the month. This warmth could carry over into the start of the third week of November. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Recently, Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for the second half of October where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a record four consecutive days during the second half of October. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November. Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000. The latest guidance shows the PNA descending to neutral levels by mid-month. Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 1 4 pm is 15.29". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was -1.53 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.666 today. On October 30 the MJO was in Phase 1 at an amplitude of 0.861 (RMM). The October 29-adjusted amplitude was 0.981 (RMM). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 hours ago, KEITH L.I said: Back then it was hard to be accurate 3 days out.Snow tomorrow turned out Partly Cloudy numerous times in the 60's. I remember after the blizzard of 78 they were hyping another snowstorm 3 days out. I guess it went out to sea the only storm that was bigger or even to the first one was in Feb. 1994... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 The extended EPS and GEFS have a blocky look around Thanksgiving and possibly some early season flakes. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Not that it means much (yet) but the 18z GFS now has the weekend storm a little closer to the coast. I still think its worth keeping an eye on for the next 24-48 hours before putting it to bed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 The race for 70 begins. And Then............. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 14 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said: This has been the risk all along…warmer as we get further along in time….the models keep overestimating the “cold” in the long range. The beat goes on……November most likely turns out to be another AN month….. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 50 minutes ago, bluewave said: The extended EPS and GEFS have a blocky look around Thanksgiving and possibly some early season flakes. We'll need blocking whenever we can get it this winter to force cold air down. You can already see the roaring Nina Pacific getting started on the models for late this week/next week that will want to keep it zonal and flood the continent with mild air. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 20 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This has been the risk all along…warmer as we get further along in time….the models keep overestimating the “cold” in the long range. The beat goes on……November most likely turns out to be another AN month….. November isn't a winter month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 10 hours ago, uncle W said: in the winter time after a winter storm there is usually another storm in the forecast...I can remember that going back to the March 1960 storm...most of the time the storm never came or was minor...The video of the 1967 blizzard on you tube says another storm is on the horizen...that turned out to be a 2" event... remember after April 1982 there was another storm in the forecast a week later, and we got an inch of snow instead of the 3-6 that was predicted Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The extended EPS and GEFS have a blocky look around Thanksgiving and possibly some early season flakes. so our first widespread freeze is going to be around Thanksgiving? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 48 minutes ago, MJO812 said: November isn't a winter month actually prior to 95-96, the blockbuster winters all had mild Novembers 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 50 minutes ago, jm1220 said: We'll need blocking whenever we can get it this winter to force cold air down. You can already see the roaring Nina Pacific getting started on the models for late this week/next week that will want to keep it zonal and flood the continent with mild air. with all this talk of warming climate and warming oceans, how are we still getting la ninas? They'll likely be a thing of the past in the future when our oceans are boiling year round Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 19 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: with all this talk of warming climate and warming oceans, how are we still getting la ninas? They'll likely be a thing of the past in the future when our oceans are boiling year round La Niña happens when trade winds are stronger than usual in the tropical Pacific. I haven’t seen any research about whether global warming would weaken or strengthen trade winds. I don’t think we’re more or less predisposed to Nina or Nino these days. 2 winters ago was a Nino I think and it was a disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Just now, jm1220 said: La Niña happens when trade winds are stronger than usual in the tropical Pacific. I haven’t seen any research about whether global warming would weaken or strengthen trade winds. I don’t think we’re more or less predisposed to Nina or Nino these days. 2 winters ago was a Nino I think and it was a disaster. I remember reading somewhere that super el ninos have become more likely and connected that to climate change, not sure about the likelihood of the other enso phases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: remember after April 1982 there was another storm in the forecast a week later, and we got an inch of snow instead of the 3-6 that was predicted there was one predicted after the Dec 1995 snowstorm that never materialized...the other one was after the blizzard of 96 that gave us 1-3" and turned to rain... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Just now, uncle W said: there was one predicted after the Dec 1995 snowstorm that never materialized...the other one was after the blizzard of 96 that gave us 1-3" and turned to rain... Yesss, wasn't there also a clipper after the Jan 96 blizzard that gave DC more snow than what we got? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 25 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: actually prior to 95-96, the blockbuster winters all had mild Novembers last year was the warmest Nov on record...the winter had almost 40" and had two major storms... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yesss, wasn't there also a clipper after the Jan 96 blizzard that gave DC more snow than what we got? thats the storm I mention that came on Jan 12th... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 3 minutes ago, uncle W said: last year was the warmest Nov on record...the winter had almost 40" and had two major storms... amazing some of these great winters and the mild Novembers that preceded them: using the list of 40+ winters between 1950 and 1994..... 1960-61, 1966-67, 1977-78, 1993-94 (50+) 1957-58, 1963-64 (40+) they all had mild Novembers (6/6)..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 12 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: amazing some of these great winters and the mild Novembers that preceded them: using the list of 40+ winters between 1950 and 1994..... 1960-61, 1966-67, 1977-78, 1993-94 (50+) 1957-58, 1963-64 (40+) they all had mild Novembers (6/6)..... I think November could be a little above average before a possible colder December...these are the years that had Sept/Oct/Nov above average...there were years with two above and a near average month that I left off... 1946... 1953... 1961... 1970... 1973... 1985... 2016... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 5 hours ago, bluewave said: Not much of a change on the extended EPS from last week. Cool down for the first week of November with coldest departures remaining to our SW. Then we see a rebound in temperatures for the second week of the month. Nov 1-8 Nov 8-15 Awesome! Like last November, it was a cold first week then hit 70 during the second week of the month. I would love some late season stripe bass fishing in a t shirt again 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Awesome! Like last November, it was a cold first week then hit 70 during the second week of the month. I would love some late season stripe bass fishing in a t shirt again November 1993.......... widespread freeze and heavy frost in the first week (down to 28 here just SE of JFK)....then we hit 80 on November 15th for the latest 80 we've ever had, and a day after the marathon where many were overcome by heat. and the winter, as they say, was historic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 Yeah I wouldn't give up on the weekend coastal. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 2, 2021 Share Posted November 2, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: there was one predicted after the Dec 1995 snowstorm that never materialized...the other one was after the blizzard of 96 that gave us 1-3" and turned to rain... There was a storm on 1/2/96 that was a I-90 snowstorm and down here was ice/rain mostly which is what you’re referring to. Thankfully the pattern reoriented and the blizzard happened 6 days later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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