LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 minute ago, jm1220 said: Seems that when we can get a good snow event in December it’s a good predictor of a higher than average snow season. Last year we had the Dec snow event where most of us had 6”+ and we mostly ended above 40” for the winter. In 2010-11 we had the big 12/26/10 event and we ended up well above average. But in other winters where December has little, we usually end up below average. I’m sure Don/Bluewave etc can produce better stats on this but we want for at least some decent event in Dec. Nina winters also generally are front loaded. Oh I'm mostly talking about 10"+ events in December which seem to be very rare now. I was thinking of winters like 2014-15 where we get our first big snows around Jan 20th, that seems to be a common first date for our first big snow of the season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, dWave said: Freeze warning this am..holding steady at 33. Coldest night so far The park hit 32 between hours. My annuals on campus are still alive though. So I wouldn’t call it a true freeze at least on the uws Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 9 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Yup December seems to pretty much be lost as a winter month Since 2010's Boxing Day storm we haven't seen much winter in December. We did have the big December storm last year but it was a week or so of cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 hour ago, jm1220 said: Seems that when we can get a good snow event in December it’s a good predictor of a higher than average snow season. Last year we had the Dec snow event where most of us had 6”+ and we mostly ended above 40” for the winter. In 2010-11 we had the big 12/26/10 event and we ended up well above average. But in other winters where December has little, we usually end up below average. I’m sure Don/Bluewave etc can produce better stats on this but we want for at least some decent event in Dec. Nina winters also generally are front loaded. As long as NYC gets 3” or more in a coupled La Niña December since the 1995, it usually does well in the seasonal snowfall department. It’s the few years like 2011-2012, 2007-2008, 1999-2000, and 1998-1999 that came up short. Coupled La Ninas since 1995 bolded Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 11 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: We did have the big December storm last year but it was a week or so of cold Knyc had 10.5 inches in the 12/15/20 storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 18 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: Oh I'm mostly talking about 10"+ events in December which seem to be very rare now. I was thinking of winters like 2014-15 where we get our first big snows around Jan 20th, that seems to be a common first date for our first big snow of the season. Knyc has 10.5 in the December storm last year 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: As long as NYC gets 3” or more in a coupled La Niña December since the 1995, it usually does well in the seasonal snowfall department. It’s the few years like 2011-2012, 2007-2008, 1999-2000, and 1998-1999 that came up short. So the hope this year is that we can find a way to make it to phase 7 at some point in December and sneak in a 3”+ event before the start of January. Coupled La Ninas since 1995 bolded Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 what about 2016-17? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 28 here this AM 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Just now, Allsnow said: Knyc has 10.5 in the December storm last year I dont remember anything like that on the south shore of long island, I think it was around 6 inches here near JFK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, bluewave said: As long as NYC gets 3” or more in a coupled La Niña December since the 1995, it usually does well in the seasonal snowfall department. It’s the few years like 2011-2012, 2007-2008, 1999-2000, and 1998-1999 that came up short. So the hope this year is that we can find a way to make it to phase 7 at some point in December and sneak in a 3”+ event before the start of January. Coupled La Ninas since 1995 bolded Monthly Total Snowfall for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr Season 2020-2021 0.0 0.0 10.5 2.1 26.0 T 0.0 38.6 2019-2020 0.0 0.0 2.5 2.3 T T T 4.8 2018-2019 0.0 6.4 T 1.1 2.6 10.4 0.0 20.5 2017-2018 0.0 T 7.7 11.2 4.9 11.6 5.5 40.9 2016-2017 0.0 T 3.2 7.9 9.4 9.7 0.0 30.2 2015-2016 0.0 0.0 T 27.9 4.0 0.9 T 32.8 2014-2015 0.0 0.2 1.0 16.9 13.6 18.6 0.0 50.3 2013-2014 0.0 T 8.6 19.7 29.0 0.1 T 57.4 2012-2013 0.0 4.7 0.4 1.5 12.2 7.3 0.0 26.1 2011-2012 2.9 0.0 0.0 4.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 7.4 2010-2011 0.0 T 20.1 36.0 4.8 1.0 T 61.9 2009-2010 0.0 0.0 12.4 2.1 36.9 T 0.0 51.4 2008-2009 0.0 T 6.0 9.0 4.3 8.3 T 27.6 2007-2008 0.0 T 2.9 T 9.0 T 0.0 11.9 2006-2007 0.0 0.0 0.0 2.6 3.8 6.0 T 12.4 2005-2006 0.0 T 9.7 2.0 26.9 1.3 0.1 40.0 2004-2005 0.0 T 3.0 15.3 15.8 6.9 0.0 41.0 2003-2004 0.0 0.0 19.8 17.3 0.7 4.8 0.0 42.6 2002-2003 T T 11.0 4.7 26.1 3.5 4.0 49.3 2001-2002 0.0 0.0 T 3.5 T T T 3.5 2000-2001 T 0.0 13.4 8.3 9.5 3.8 0.0 35.0 1999-2000 0.0 0.0 T 9.5 5.2 0.4 1.2 16.3 1998-1999 0.0 0.0 2.0 4.5 1.7 4.5 0.0 12.7 1997-1998 0.0 T T 0.5 0.0 5.0 0.0 5.5 1996-1997 0.0 0.1 T 4.4 3.8 1.7 T 10.0 1995-1996 0.0 2.9 11.5 26.1 21.2 13.2 0.7 75.6 so 2016-17 just made it over the 3 inch mark Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 32 this morning...not the coldest day...I was 31 twice so far... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 38 minutes ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: The park hit 32 between hours. My annuals on campus are still alive though. So I wouldn’t call it a true freeze at least on the uws It definitely will be tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 13 minutes ago, uncle W said: 32 this morning...not the coldest day...I was 31 twice so far... coldest wind chill though, 23 F or -5 C 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 34 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Yup December seems to pretty much be lost as a winter month Since 2010's Boxing Day storm we haven't seen much winter in December. that isn’t hard and fast. Last December for instance. The Boxing Day storm was a major storm…but there have been several December snows since then. What we have lost is extended cold weather in December. If you want to look at a month that’s lost to a season I’ll give you September. But December isnt quite there yet. Ironically the warmer Decembers have been coupled with cooler Novembers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 hour ago, LibertyBell said: Yup December seems to pretty much be lost as a winter month Since 2010's Boxing Day storm we haven't seen much winter in December. The early 2000s had nice December's 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 I see Central Park still didn’t get below freezing. Must be that foliage 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 The colder day 15 EPS last night is a great example of how MJO sensitive the early December pattern may be. The 0z EPS weakens the MJO rather than the weeklies stronger wave. So this allows the Aleutians ridge to poke up closer to the Arctic. The newer EPS is actually closer to La Niña climo than what the weeklies snowed yesterday. So another example of how we really have to wait until December gets started to see the true atmospheric response will be. The stronger La Niña 5-6 phases usually hold off until after December. New colder run Weaker MJO Older weeklies stronger MJO 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 21 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: I see Central Park still didn’t get below freezing. Must be that foliage It hit freezing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: The colder day 15 EPS last night is a great example of how MJO sensitive the early December pattern may be. The 0z EPS weakens the MJO rather than the weeklies stronger wave. So this allows the Aleutians ridge to poke up closer to the Arctic. The newer EPS is actually closer to La Niña climo than what the weeklies snowed yesterday. So another example of how we really have to wait until December gets started to see the true atmospheric response will be. The stronger La Niña 5-6 phases usually hold off until after December. New colder run Weaker MJO Older weeklies stronger MJO The EPS is flip flopping horribly in the long range, wild run to run swings. It’s definitely not what it used to be. It’s had a very severe cold bias in the long range for the last several years Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The EPS is flip flopping horribly in the long range, wild run to run swings. It’s definitely not what it used to be. It’s had a very severe cold bias in the long range for the last several years Big model war on the 0z guidance for early December. The EPS and GEPS are colder with the Aleutians ridge building toward the Arctic. The GEFS is flatter and warmer with a faster Pacific Jet. That poleward Aleutians ridge matches December La Niña climatology more closely since 2000. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 33 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The EPS is flip flopping horribly in the long range, wild run to run swings. It’s definitely not what it used to be. It’s had a very severe cold bias in the long range for the last several years It's called the long range for a reason 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 51 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The EPS is flip flopping horribly in the long range, wild run to run swings. It’s definitely not what it used to be. It’s had a very severe cold bias in the long range for the last several years And yet when it shows warm in the LR you say it must be correct. The AN November call will also be a flop. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 6 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: And yet when it shows warm in the LR you say it must be correct. The AN November call will also be a flop. Exactly We will see a few days of mild temps in early December before the pattern reshuffle. Our first snowfall should be mid month. Hopefully a white Christmas happens. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: I see Central Park still didn’t get below freezing. Must be that foliage hit 32 though like JFK did but here's a delicate question, can it be considered a freezing day if the low is above 32.0? Because 0 C (actual freezing) is 32.0 F, not 32.2 or 32.4 or anything in between? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 38 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's called the long range for a reason long range forecasting beyond a few weeks isn't a science, I can show you astrology "forecasts" that are more accurate, random chances are higher than its accuracy 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 40 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's called the long range for a reason We will need the Aleutians ridge to put up a fight against the record Pacific Jet in December. Notice how the record jet anomalies have been parked over the Aleutians this fall. So models may struggle more than normal beyond 5 days with such a supercharged Pacific Jet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: We will need the Aleutians ridge to put up a fight against the record Pacific Jet in December. Notice how the record jet anomalies have been parked over the Aleutians this fall. So models may struggle more than normal beyond 5 days with such a supercharged Pacific Jet. The Pacific is more important than the NAO. Without a good PNA the snow chances are slim. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: long range forecasting beyond a few weeks isn't a science, I can show you astrology "forecasts" that are more accurate, random chances are higher than its accuracy Good morning Liberty/Anthony/All. I know what you mean about the Astrology part. I’m still waiting to wake up tall, handsome and virile. As always …. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: And yet when it shows warm in the LR you say it must be correct. The AN November call will also be a flop. Stop your trolling. I don’t trust anything the EPS shows anymore. I don’t care if it shows a freaking torch, I don’t believe it. It flips around like a fish out of water Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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