November 2021

[White Gorilla]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Considering the warming climate I think it is possible that the northeast experiences more tornadoes in the coming years. 

That's not what I want to hear 

[Great Snow 1717]

6 minutes ago, White Gorilla said:

That's not what I want to hear 

Agree,  but it will be interesting to track the trend in the coming years. This morning there was a tornado warning in the Cape Ann area of MA. 

I am also wondering if more tornado warnings are being issued out of an abundance of caution.  

[Eduardo]

23 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

it's early-snow is generally rare around here before xmas.    I'll jump the ledge in Mid Jan-if it doesn't come by then, it's usually not coming...years like 06-07 are outliers in that regard where the cold really did come 2nd half

IIRC, a ton of people took the cliff jump in early Jan. 2015.  They found themselves climbing back up a few short weeks later.

 

These patterns really do flip on a dime sometimes.  That's why I generally don't put too much stock in LR guidance, especially when it's as fickle as it's been over these past few years.

[JustinRP37]

13 minutes ago, Eduardo said:

IIRC, a ton of people took the cliff jump in early Jan. 2015.  They found themselves climbing back up a few short weeks later.

 

These patterns really do flip on a dime sometimes.  That's why I generally don't put too much stock in LR guidance, especially when it's as fickle as it's been over these past few years.

People hold on to their beliefs way too much. Just go with the flow. I will never understand how seriously some take weather and the discussion of warmer versus cooler. I've had people jump down my throat when I say it looks warm just because it isn't the news they want to hear. I predicted that this month would be normal to just above normal (turns out it will be ever so slightly below normal if you want to call it that), but you'd have thought I was suggesting torch. The overnight lows on the warm days really do tend to keep us disproportionately warm. We were lucky that for November we had quite a few clear nights which allowed for strong radiational cooling, otherwise, I think we would have firmly been above normal this month. But I will say the worst snow winters I have lived through all tended to have early snow, so I for one am glad it didn't snow yet. 

For December, I am thinking it will again be near normal to just above normal, with normal chances for snow. There just isn't much out there right now to scream cold or torch so along we go descending into the darkest part of the year followed shortly by the coldest time of year. This is also the time of year that people hopefully realize "normal" temperatures can generate snow.

So to those who want warm and those who want cold, we don't control the outcome and no amount of hoping/hyping will get the desired outcome. As long as it isn't 36 with a driving rain, I'll be as happy as I can be and hopefully we can get some nice skiing in this year. 

[SnoSki14]

39 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Agree,  but it will be interesting to track the trend in the coming years. This morning there was a tornado warning in the Cape Ann area of MA. 

I am also wondering if more tornado warnings are being issued out of an abundance of caution.  

Maybe but the reports back up those warnings.

[MJO812]

Euro is close for Sunday with the clipper that tries to bomb out off the coast

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Eduardo said:

IIRC, a ton of people took the cliff jump in early Jan. 2015.  They found themselves climbing back up a few short weeks later.

 

These patterns really do flip on a dime sometimes.  That's why I generally don't put too much stock in LR guidance, especially when it's as fickle as it's been over these past few years.

I see our cold/snowy patterns seem to begin around Jan 20th

 

[LibertyBell]

1 hour ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

Considering the warming climate I think it is possible that the northeast experiences more tornadoes in the coming years. 

warmer sea surface temps resulted in the 6 tornado outbreak last weekend on Long Island

Maybe we will see a tornado pop up in the middle of a Yankees Red Sox game one of these days, that'd be fun!

 

[LibertyBell]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I feel like the northeast is about to become a secondary tornado alley in several years. 

I still couldn't believe the look & strength of the tornadoes in NJ this summer.

Being near a warming ocean will give it some boost.

[guinness77]

2 random observations: I can’t believe there are still leaves on the trees, mid-to-late November and I can’t believe I mowed my lawn the same day we put up our Christmas tree. 

[Brian5671]

10 minutes ago, guinness77 said:

2 random observations: I can’t believe there are still leaves on the trees, mid-to-late November and I can’t believe I mowed my lawn the same day we put up our Christmas tree. 

latest leaf drop I've seen here.  About 80% down as of today.

[lee59]

Maybe some flurries this weekend around the area. 

[donsutherland1]

Early showers marked the passage of a strong cold front. At Central Park, 0.04" of rain was measured today. That raised the year-to-date precipitation total to 58.21", which ranks 2021 as New York City's 12th wettest year on record.

Out West, Denver has now surpassed the record for its latest first measurable snowfall. The longstanding record was set on November 21, 1934. Phoenix tied 2017 for its 3rd warmest November 1-21 period on record. Each of the last three years has ranked among the 10 warmest November 1-21 periods on record. Today saw Phoenix reach 82° today, its 22nd consecutive 80° or warmer day this month. The previous November record was 17 consecutive days, which was set during November 1-17, 1999. Prior to that the records were 16 days (November 1-16, 1989) and 15 days (November 1-15, 1934 and 1967).

The coldest air of the season so far is continuing to push into the region. New York City's Central Park could see its first freeze tomorrow or Wednesday. That would be slightly later than the mean 1991-2020 date of November 20. Last year's first freeze occurred on October 31, which was the earliest first freeze since 1988.

No measurable snow appears likely in much of the region through this week. Much of the region typically sees its first measurable snowfall in December.

First measurable snowfall statistics for select cities:

Allentown: Normal: December 6; 2020-21: December 9
Bridgeport: Normal: December 3; 2020-21: December 16
Islip: Normal: December 10; 2020-21: December 16
New York City: Normal: December 13; 2020-21: December 16
Newark: Normal: December 9; 2020-21: December 9
Philadelphia: Normal: December 19; 2020-21: December 16

The temperature anomaly for November 20-30 will likely wind up below normal due to the development of AO blocking. The latest teleconnections forecasts continue to suggest that the AO will drop sharply to somewhere between -3.000 and -1.000 on or after November 20. Such strong blocking typically favors a period of colder than normal weather (November 20-30, 1991-2020 period):

Boston: Normal: 42.2°; AO cases: 38.4°
New York City: Normal: 45.5°; AO cases: 41.7°
Philadelphia: Normal: 45.4°; AO cases: 41.7°

The duration of the blocking is uncertain. Should blocking dissipate, warmer conditions could develop near the start of December.

Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 22 4 pm is 16.28".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -1.0°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 17. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.67°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.92°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +9.92 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.835 today.

On November 20 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.303 (RMM). The November 19-adjusted amplitude was 1.242 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 91% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.6° (1.4° below normal).

 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, guinness77 said:

2 random observations: I can’t believe there are still leaves on the trees, mid-to-late November and I can’t believe I mowed my lawn the same day we put up our Christmas tree. 

Yeah, these delayed falls have become the new normal. The first one I remember seeing this late was 2007. Beautiful fall color now in Central Park.

 

[uncle W]

I remember seeing the last of the green trees the beginning of Dec 1975...it got cold fast in December 1975...November 1975 was the warmest on record at the time...

[nycwinter]

4 hours ago, Brian5671 said:

latest leaf drop I've seen here.  About 80% down as of today.

couple of big time wind rain  wind storms we had last 2 weeks dropped a lot of leaves in the city i am surprised still how many trees have a lot of leaves left...

[psv88]

51 minutes ago, nycwinter said:

couple of big time wind rain  wind storms we had last 2 weeks dropped a lot of leaves in the city i am surprised still how many trees have a lot of leaves left...

Those wind rain wind storms are pretty nasty indeed. 

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, nycwinter said:

couple of big time wind rain  wind storms we had last 2 weeks dropped a lot of leaves in the city i am surprised still how many trees have a lot of leaves left...

Leaf clean ups will probably run into early December around the area.

 

[Tatamy]

8 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

I feel like the northeast is about to become a secondary tornado alley in several years. 

I still couldn't believe the look & strength of the tornadoes in NJ this summer.

It’s already here…

[dmillz25]

Already down to 36 here

[the_other_guy]

Only in this forum could you guys be talking about warmth and tornadoes on the coldest night of the year.

 

Just landed at JFK. With the wind it is brutal outside. Enjoy it

 

TOGA thrust takeoffs and sporty landings this evening Up and down the East Coast

[snowman19]

@bluewave Any model showing the MJO propagating east into phases 7 and 8 needs to be viewed with extreme skepticism due to destructive interference from La Niña. Any wave moving into those areas will likely be sheared apart. Here is the CPC’s new take on it: 

 

[dmillz25]

Down to 30 here. First freeze of the season

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will partly to mostly sunny but brisk. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 44°

Newark: 47°

Philadelphia: 46°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 51.4°; 15-Year: 51.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 52.1°; 15-Year: 52.4°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.1°; 15-Year: 53.4°

Tomorrow will be another fair but cold day.

[LibertyBell]

50 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The latest EPS weeklies slow it down in phase 6 during December. That’s why it has such a mild +EPO-PNA pattern. The standing wave has remained in those areas with the La Niña for the whole fall.

This seems to be our regular pattern now, not really ENSO dependent.  Isn't it true that over the past decade our winters have really kicked into high gear around January 20nd or so, no matter the ENSO state?

 

[CIK62]

The last 8 days of November are averaging  39degs.(34/44), or -4.

Month to date is  48.8[-0.4].       November should end near  46.2[-1.8].

Reached 52 here yesterday.

Today:  40-43, wind nw and breezy, m. sunny.     31 tomorrow AM.         Only AN period showing today is Dec. 7-14.       Next 30 as a whole are BN.      Little snow, but it becomes active just before Christmas.    That from the GEFS Extended today.

34*(58%RH)here at 6am{since 5am}.      36* at 9am.       40* at 11:30am.         41* at Noon.       Got to 42* at various times.       36* at 8pm.        34* at 11pm.

[dWave]

Freeze warning this am..holding steady at 33. Coldest night so far

[LibertyBell]

Just now, bluewave said:

Yeah, the rapid warming of the West Pacific warm pool has caused the MJO to slow down in the warm phases.

 

Yup December seems to pretty much be lost as a winter month

Since 2010's Boxing Day storm we haven't seen much winter in December.

 

[LibertyBell]

5 minutes ago, dWave said:

Freeze warning this am..holding steady at 33. Coldest night so far

thats artificial central park temperatures, at JFK we're now down to 32, the city's first freeze

 

 

[jm1220]

11 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

This seems to be our regular pattern now, not really ENSO dependent.  Isn't it true that over the past decade our winters have really kicked into high gear around January 20nd or so, no matter the ENSO state?

 

Seems that when we can get a good snow event in December it’s a good predictor of a higher than average snow season. Last year we had the Dec snow event where most of us had 6”+ and we mostly ended above 40” for the winter. In 2010-11 we had the big 12/26/10 event and we ended up well above average. But in other winters where December has little, we usually end up below average. I’m sure Don/Bluewave etc can produce better stats on this but we want for at least some decent event in Dec. Nina winters also generally are front loaded.