MJO812 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Barely a warmup on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 The MJO standing wave near Phase 5 this month is part of the reason that we are seeing a colder pattern in November. Notice how the coldest departures this month are over the Southeast. This is a good match for the MJO 5 standing wave. La Niñas also tend to be cooler in November like I posted at the beginning of this November thread. I also posted how November has been our coldest departure fall month since 2010. So this cooler November pattern is no surprise. Now, December La Niña climo typically has December as the coolest departure month of winter. This is why many seasonal forecasts go cooler in December. But the MJO 5 standing wave in December is a warmer departure pattern in December due to changing wavelengths going into winter. So we don’t want to see the models continuing with such a robust MJO 5 or 6 standing wave forecast for early December. This is a bit unusual for La Ninas since the stronger MJO 5-6 activity usually occurs in January or February like we saw during our last coupled La Niña in 17-18. So it will be interesting to see how the model forecasts evolve over the next 10 days or so for early December. MJO standing wave near phase 5 since early November Current colder November pattern centered in Southeast matches Same MJO with December wavelength changes is warmer 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 we've had the same general departure pattern all year 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 26 minutes ago, forkyfork said: we've had the same general departure pattern all year This is one of the few times this year that the over the top warm pattern got pushed further north and allowed cooler temperatures in the mid-Atlantic to near our area. Most of the year had the coldest departures focused near Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 12 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: I guess we hope the mjo gets moving I suppose but unless it's in phase 7, it will be warm for a while All we are really seeing from the 11-15 day ensembles is a snapshot of what the first week of December may look like. It’s tough to extrapolate a whole month from a week 2 forecast. The main December pattern may not come into better focus until we get closer to the start of December. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 4 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Mine too. 40-48-44 weird 36-45-38-50-40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Gfs keep showing a better pattern evolving by the 1st week of December. Hopefully it continues. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 A cold front will cross the region tonight with some showers. Tomorrow will start mild but the temperature will hold steady or fall during the afternoon as the coldest air so far this season overspreads the region. New York City's Central Park could see its first freeze on either November 23 or November 24. That would be slightly later than the mean 1991-2020 date of November 20. Last year's first freeze occurred on October 31, which was the earliest first freeze since 1988. No measurable snow appears likely in much of the region through the coming week. However, any such snowfall would be unusually early. Much of the region typically sees its first measurable snowfall in December. First measurable snowfall statistics for select cities: Allentown: Normal: December 6; 2020-21: December 9 Bridgeport: Normal: December 3; 2020-21: December 16 Islip: Normal: December 10; 2020-21: December 16 New York City: Normal: December 13; 2020-21: December 16 Newark: Normal: December 9; 2020-21: December 9 Philadelphia: Normal: December 19; 2020-21: December 16 The temperature anomaly for November 20-30 will likely wind up below normal due to the development of AO blocking. The latest teleconnections forecasts continue to suggest that the AO will drop sharply to somewhere between -3.000 and -1.000 on or after November 20. Such strong blocking typically favors a period of colder than normal weather (November 20-30, 1991-2020 period): Boston: Normal: 42.2°; AO cases: 38.4° New York City: Normal: 45.5°; AO cases: 41.7° Philadelphia: Normal: 45.4°; AO cases: 41.7° The duration of the blocking is uncertain. Should blocking dissipate, warmer conditions could develop near the start of December. Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 20 4 pm is 16.23". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter. The SOI was +7.00 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.793 today. On November 19 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.244 (RMM). The November 18-adjusted amplitude was 1.141 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 87% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 46.8° (1.2° below normal). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 21, 2021 Share Posted November 21, 2021 Next Euro seasonal monthly forecast for the December on the 5th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will see clouds break later in the day after some earlier showers. After a mild start, temperatures will begin to fall, especially during the afternoon hours. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 51° Newark: 53° Philadelphia: 53° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 51.8°; 15-Year: 51.9° Newark: 30-Year: 52.5°; 15-Year: 52.8° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 53.5°; 15-Year: 53.7° The coldest air mass of the season will bring about widespread freezes tonight and tomorrow night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 This has been our warmest fall on record through November 21st at several stations across the region. Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 57.1 0 2 2017-11-21 56.1 0 - 2011-11-21 56.1 6 3 2015-11-21 55.8 0 4 2007-11-21 55.5 0 - 2005-11-21 55.5 0 5 2014-11-21 55.3 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 63.6 0 2 2015-11-21 62.6 0 3 1971-11-21 62.5 0 4 1961-11-21 62.4 0 5 2017-11-21 62.1 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 60.7 0 2 2017-11-21 60.6 0 3 2015-11-21 60.2 0 4 2016-11-21 59.5 0 - 1990-11-21 59.5 0 5 2005-11-21 59.4 0 - 1971-11-21 59.4 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CTClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 60.7 0 - 2016-11-21 60.7 0 2 2017-11-21 60.6 0 3 2015-11-21 60.5 0 4 2011-11-21 60.0 0 5 1977-11-21 59.8 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 60.4 0 2 2011-11-21 59.4 0 3 1975-11-21 59.3 0 - 1931-11-21 59.3 0 4 2017-11-21 59.2 0 5 1971-11-21 59.0 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 41degs.(35/46), or -3. Month to date is 49.0[-0.4]. Should be near 46.8[-1.1] by the 30th. Reached 56 at 11pm here yesterday. Today: up to 53 early, then falling to 35 by tomorrow AM. Rain ending by Noon, wind w to nw and breezy later. Clearing late. GFS is again back to the 60's by December 04th. 12/04---12/13===AN. 12/14---12/25===BN. 50*(85%RH) here at 6am. 49* at 7am. 51* at 10am. 52* at 11am. 51* at Noon. 47* at 4pm. 40* at 8pm. 37* at Midnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: This has been our warmest fall on record through November 21st at several stations across the region. Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 57.1 0 2 2017-11-21 56.1 0 - 2011-11-21 56.1 6 3 2015-11-21 55.8 0 4 2007-11-21 55.5 0 - 2005-11-21 55.5 0 5 2014-11-21 55.3 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 63.6 0 2 2015-11-21 62.6 0 3 1971-11-21 62.5 0 4 1961-11-21 62.4 0 5 2017-11-21 62.1 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 60.7 0 2 2017-11-21 60.6 0 3 2015-11-21 60.2 0 4 2016-11-21 59.5 0 - 1990-11-21 59.5 0 5 2005-11-21 59.4 0 - 1971-11-21 59.4 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CTClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 60.7 0 - 2016-11-21 60.7 0 2 2017-11-21 60.6 0 3 2015-11-21 60.5 0 4 2011-11-21 60.0 0 5 1977-11-21 59.8 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 60.4 0 2 2011-11-21 59.4 0 3 1975-11-21 59.3 0 - 1931-11-21 59.3 0 4 2017-11-21 59.2 0 5 1971-11-21 59.0 0 And check out Alaska the total opposite Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 10 minutes ago, bluewave said: This has been our warmest fall on record through November 21st at several stations across the region. Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 57.1 0 2 2017-11-21 56.1 0 - 2011-11-21 56.1 6 3 2015-11-21 55.8 0 4 2007-11-21 55.5 0 - 2005-11-21 55.5 0 5 2014-11-21 55.3 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 63.6 0 2 2015-11-21 62.6 0 3 1971-11-21 62.5 0 4 1961-11-21 62.4 0 5 2017-11-21 62.1 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 60.7 0 2 2017-11-21 60.6 0 3 2015-11-21 60.2 0 4 2016-11-21 59.5 0 - 1990-11-21 59.5 0 5 2005-11-21 59.4 0 - 1971-11-21 59.4 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CTClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 60.7 0 - 2016-11-21 60.7 0 2 2017-11-21 60.6 0 3 2015-11-21 60.5 0 4 2011-11-21 60.0 0 5 1977-11-21 59.8 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 60.4 0 2 2011-11-21 59.4 0 3 1975-11-21 59.3 0 - 1931-11-21 59.3 0 4 2017-11-21 59.2 0 5 1971-11-21 59.0 0 Same here in SNE. As of Saturday Boston was on pace for warmest year on record and warmest fall. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 12 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: Same here in SNE. As of Saturday Boston was on pace for warmest year on record and warmest fall. Yeah, that’s why the Gulf of Maine SSTs continue to run at record high levels. The nearby record SST warmth probably gave a boost to our recent late season historic tornado outbreaks. I noticed that Boston issued another tornado warning earlier today. https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/ 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Freeze warning in effect for the NYC area 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Going to be some huge snow departures in the upper Midwest to start December. The nao will help keep us cool but for them it’s been all pac flow 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 36 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Going to be some huge snow departures in the upper Midwest to start December. The nao will help keep us cool but for them it’s been all pac flow The lakes are also going to start cranking while here and SNE are still waiting for snowfall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 hour ago, thunderbolt said: And check out Alaska the total opposite It’s from the severely negative PDO and ++EPO that have been in place since early September Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 35 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The lakes are also going to start cranking while here and SNE are still waiting for snowfall. Outside the lakes it’s going to be a while for us unfortunately Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 3 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Outside the lakes it’s going to be a while for us unfortunately Boring pattern next 2-3 weeks.....just a series of cold fronts with pac air behind them each time and accompanied by some showers. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 In the teens 3 years ago today and tomorrow (2018) freeze. Next 10 days looks like 7 of 10 are colder with peak cold 11/27 - 11/29 maybe teens inland or low 20s. Dec 3 and beyond is way out there but looks warm for a period. Roller Coaster looks to continue (colder lean now through Dec 2) may swing the opposite way Dec 3 - 10. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 1 hour ago, Allsnow said: Outside the lakes it’s going to be a while for us unfortunately It looks like 12/1 - 12/15 may be a very stagnant pattern Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that’s why the Gulf of Maine SSTs continue to run at record high levels. The nearby record SST warmth probably gave a boost to our recent late season historic tornado outbreaks. I noticed that Boston issued another tornado warning earlier today. https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/ how come we're not getting tornadoes like new england is getting? warmer to our north? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 2 minutes ago, snowman19 said: It looks like 12/1 - 12/15 may be a very stagnant pattern IF it stays like that, give me some early spring warmth instead. Rarely do we see any significant snow around here in December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: This has been our warmest fall on record through November 21st at several stations across the region. Time Series Summary for SUSSEX AIRPORT, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 57.1 0 2 2017-11-21 56.1 0 - 2011-11-21 56.1 6 3 2015-11-21 55.8 0 4 2007-11-21 55.5 0 - 2005-11-21 55.5 0 5 2014-11-21 55.3 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 63.6 0 2 2015-11-21 62.6 0 3 1971-11-21 62.5 0 4 1961-11-21 62.4 0 5 2017-11-21 62.1 0 Time Series Summary for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NYClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 60.7 0 2 2017-11-21 60.6 0 3 2015-11-21 60.2 0 4 2016-11-21 59.5 0 - 1990-11-21 59.5 0 5 2005-11-21 59.4 0 - 1971-11-21 59.4 0 Time Series Summary for IGOR I SIKORSKY MEMORIAL AIRPORT, CTClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 60.7 0 - 2016-11-21 60.7 0 2 2017-11-21 60.6 0 3 2015-11-21 60.5 0 4 2011-11-21 60.0 0 5 1977-11-21 59.8 0 Time Series Summary for Boston Area, MA (ThreadEx)Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Ending Date Mean Avg Temperature Sep 1 to Nov 21 Missing Count 1 2021-11-21 60.4 0 2 2011-11-21 59.4 0 3 1975-11-21 59.3 0 - 1931-11-21 59.3 0 4 2017-11-21 59.2 0 5 1971-11-21 59.0 0 funny to see 1977 and 2014 on this list Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 Ewr with just .02" of rain. On track for a monthly total under an inch 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that’s why the Gulf of Maine SSTs continue to run at record high levels. The nearby record SST warmth probably gave a boost to our recent late season historic tornado outbreaks. I noticed that Boston issued another tornado warning earlier today. https://mco.umaine.edu/gom_sst/ I feel like the northeast is about to become a secondary tornado alley in several years. I still couldn't believe the look & strength of the tornadoes in NJ this summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 22, 2021 Share Posted November 22, 2021 41 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I feel like the northeast is about to become a secondary tornado alley in several years. I still couldn't believe the look & strength of the tornadoes in NJ this summer. Considering the warming climate I think it is possible that the northeast experiences more tornadoes in the coming years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now