November 2021

[Brian5671]

6 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

This is why I am not too worried about this winter as of yet, blocking looks to be there to some degree even though the Pacific looks fairly poor. We are far enough north where a good storm track (coupled with a depening storm) will yield results. I can't remember the last time we had a winter of blocking with below average snowfall (I think 97/98 may have had great blocking but far below average snowfall).

Lack of cold air will be the main issue next few weeks.   It's early so no big deal.

[the_other_guy]

5 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Lack of cold air will be the main issue next few weeks.   It's early so no big deal.

Gets late early…:)

[qg_omega]

2 hours ago, bluewave said:

The La Niña vortex in the Northeast Pacific this fall has been the strongest on record since the 1990s. The only other La Niña falls that came close were 2016 and 2011. But 2011 had the vortex further north near Alaska. This year is further south near the Pacific Northwest like 2016. The fall blocking near Greenland this year is closer to 2016 than 2011. So it’s important to see where the La Niña vortex sets up in December and how much blocking we get on the Atlantic side. Long range guidance is hinting that the Niña vortex may try to move over to the -PNA region.

Very ugly

[StormchaserChuck!]

35 minutes ago, uncle W said:

if you look at 2017-18's daily AO it snowed most of the time the AO was negative big time or briefly...

I'm starting to feel like we are due for a little bit of a wetter pattern. 

[bluewave]

42 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looking at your snips of this year vs. 2016, PAC looks a little worse however the Atlantic, blocking looks to be in a better position.

Feb 2018 shows that we can get a decent snowstorm in a sea of 60s and 70s temps. 

Personally I HATE the cold but LOVE snowstorms (if it snowed in Florida I would be there already).

So selfishly, the warmer times this century coupled with this being an extremely snowy time since 2000/2001 (only 6 below average snowfall seasons here this century) have made me a happy camper.

While it’s still early in the season, this next 588 dm near record block is further south than we normally see this time of year. So while it’s a 4.5 SD event, the NAO and AO don’t  really drop that much. I think the block not being able to propagate further north into Greenland is why the AO and NAO is rising heading into December. Last November we had the opposite pattern of the near record positive November NAO and AO falling into December. 

New run further south block 

Old run building more into Greenland

Forecast for the NAO to rebound in early December

[MJO812]

31 minutes ago, bluewave said:

While it’s still early in the season, this next 588 dm near record block is further south than we normally see this time of year. So while it’s a 4.5 SD event, the NAO and AO don’t  really drop that much. I think the block not being able to propagate further north into Greenland is why the AO and NAO is rising heading into December. Last November we had the opposite pattern of the near record positive November NAO and AO falling into December. 

New run further south block 

Old run building more into Greenland

Forecast for the NAO to rebound in early December

Gfs has nice strat warming going on. That would throw a wrench in many forecasts.  I still think December will be fine for our area.

[MJO812]

49 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Lack of cold air will be the main issue next few weeks.   It's early so no big deal.

Next week's will bring us to mid December which should be a good month.

[StormchaserChuck!]

Kind of a weak-NAO to be honest.. something like 20 straight -NAO's have been with -PNA or +EPO

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, bluewave said:

2016-2017 was one of our warmest winters due to the powerful La Niña Pacific Jet. But it was also snowy since we had favorable Atlantic blocking intervals for memorable snowstorms.  So hopefully we can do OK in the snowfall department if the winter turns out warm.

Definitely was a nice February that year but disappointing March. 3/14/17 was 100 miles away from burying the whole area. 

[bluewave]

2 hours ago, qg_omega said:

Very ugly

The North Pacific is just one area that has been experiencing extremes in opposite directions over the last decade. We had the record wall of -EPO +PNA blocking in 13-14 and and 14-15. This fall has experienced record winds with the supercharged Pacific Jet and record storm systems pounding the West Coast.

 

[jm1220]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Very ugly

We need all the help we can get from the Atlantic this year to hold the Pac jet off and force storms to track south of us. When the blocking breaks down it's likely endless cutters since the trough will keep trying to form out west with the -PNA. 

[Intensewind002]

Went down to 29 back home last night, I’m guessing that was the coldest of the season so far but I haven’t been keeping track

[bluewave]

53 minutes ago, jm1220 said:

We need all the help we can get from the Atlantic this year to hold the Pac jet off and force storms to track south of us. When the blocking breaks down it's likely endless cutters since the trough will keep trying to form out west with the -PNA. 

The latest EPS has the +PNA -NAO until the start of December. Then if goes more -PNA by December 5th with the NAO and AO rising. So we will just have to look for periods down the road when the Pacific Jet backs off a bit and the Atlantic is more cooperative.

Euro 240 Nov 30

Euro 360 Dec 5

 

[White Gorilla]

1 hour ago, jm1220 said:

Definitely was a nice February that year but disappointing March. 3/14/17 was 100 miles away from burying the whole area. 

That 3/14/17 storm was a white monster up here in Poughkeepsie.  22 inches. 

[donsutherland1]

At the New York Botanical Garden, many of the trees have reached or moved past peak fall color.

[jm1220]

3 hours ago, White Gorilla said:

That 3/14/17 storm was a white monster up here in Poughkeepsie.  22 inches. 

Was a sloppy 3” here that turned to heavy rain and was gone by the end. Pretty infuriating. The writing was on the wall with the late NW trend but it looked like we could salvage 6-8” at least. That happened in the city where there were huge piles from all the sleet. That storm can rot forever. 

[uncle W]

I'm not worried about some warm days the first part of December...1960, 1966 and some other years had record warmth the first week in dec and snow at the end of the second week...I'll take snow when ever it comes (i have no say anyway) but I'd rather have it begin the week before Christmas...

[donsutherland1]

Tomorrow and Monday will be milder days. However, another surge of cold air is likely early next week. The cold air will be preceded by a period of rain or showers.

In the wake of next week's cold front, New York City's Central Park could see its first freeze on either November 23 or November 24. That would be slightly later than the mean 1991-2020 date of November 20. Last year's first freeze occurred on October 31, which was the earliest first freeze since 1988.

The temperature anomaly for November 20-30 will likely wind up somewhat below normal due to the development of AO blocking. The latest teleconnections forecasts continue to suggest that the AO will drop sharply to somewhere between -3.000 and -1.000 on or after November 20. Such strong blocking typically favors a period of colder than normal weather (November 20-30, 1991-2020 period):

Boston: Normal: 42.2°; AO cases: 38.4°
New York City: Normal: 45.5°; AO cases: 41.7°
Philadelphia: Normal: 45.4°; AO cases: 41.7°

The duration of the blocking is uncertain. Should blocking dissipate, warmer conditions could develop near the start of December.

Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 20 4 pm is 16.23".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter.

The SOI was +10.69 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.306 today.

On November 18 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.139 (RMM). The November 17-adjusted amplitude was 1.118 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 80% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.0° (1.0° below normal).

 

[snowman19]

As expected, the EPS was way too cold in the long range, yet another phantom -EPO fail: 

 

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, snowman19 said:

As expected, the EPS was way too cold in the long range, yet another phantom -EPO fail: 

 

Eps has been trash all year

Gefs has been leading the way 

[RippleEffect]

17 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps has been trash all year

Gefs has been leading the way 

so what's the verdict here no snow until at least mid december!

[snowman19]

27 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Eps has been trash all year

Gefs has been leading the way 

Yep. It keeps building -EPO/+PNA mirages over and over in the long range. This has been going on for years now. It has a severe cold bias in the long range. Beware when it shows poleward Aleutian ridges as well. It likes showing big -WPOs that never come to fruition 

[MJO812]

17 minutes ago, RippleEffect said:

so what's the verdict here no snow until at least mid december!

Most likely 

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

Yep. It keeps building -EPO/+PNA mirages over and over in the long range. This has been going on for years now. It has a severe cold bias in the long range. Beware when it shows poleward Aleutian ridges as well. It likes showing big -WPOs that never come to fruition 

I agree

The euro products have been trash ever since the upgrade. 

[LibertyBell]

15 hours ago, bluewave said:

2016-2017 was one of our warmest winters due to the powerful La Niña Pacific Jet. But it was also snowy since we had favorable Atlantic blocking intervals for memorable snowstorms.  So hopefully we can do OK in the snowfall department if the winter turns out warm.

isn't it equal chances of either a below or above normal snowfall winter even if temps are above normal?  Thats another reason why it's a bad idea to use a Boston forecast for NYC.  We have had, more than a few winters where we had an entire season's worth of snow in one storm.  So you could actually have a 40 inch snowfall winter here with an average winter temp of 40 F.  Boston can't have a winter where one storm makes up their entire yearly average like we can-- because their yearly average is 42 inches while ours is in the 20s.  That actually makes it far easier for NYC to have above normal snowfall than it is for Boston.  Just need one big storm to do it for us.

 

[LibertyBell]

14 hours ago, EastonSN+ said:

Looking at your snips of this year vs. 2016, PAC looks a little worse however the Atlantic, blocking looks to be in a better position.

Feb 2018 shows that we can get a decent snowstorm in a sea of 60s and 70s temps. 

Personally I HATE the cold but LOVE snowstorms (if it snowed in Florida I would be there already).

So selfishly, the warmer times this century coupled with this being an extremely snowy time since 2000/2001 (only 6 below average snowfall seasons here this century) have made me a happy camper.

We can take a look at 2005-06 too, it was warm as hell but NYC still ended up with 40 inches of snow mostly courtesy of one big storm

 

[LibertyBell]

16 hours ago, bluewave said:

The La Niña vortex in the Northeast Pacific this fall has been the strongest on record since the 1990s. The only other La Niña falls that came close were 2016 and 2011. But 2011 had the vortex further north near Alaska. This year is further south near the Pacific Northwest like 2016. The fall blocking near Greenland this year is closer to 2016 than 2011. So it’s important to see where the La Niña vortex sets up in December and how much blocking we get on the Atlantic side. Long range guidance is hinting that the Niña vortex may try to move over to the -PNA region.

Having said what I said about getting most of our snow in 1 storm being a strong possibility this winter, I do have to put a little fly in this particular ointment.....the winter you're specifying, 2016-17, came after a super el nino, 2015-16 and la ninas following el ninos tend to be snowy dont they?

I give the examples of 1995-96 and 2010-11

 

[LibertyBell]

18 hours ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said:

29 in wantagh for the coldest of the season. Still only managed 35 at the Park. So the growing season continues on the uws. I just started potting my elephant ears here on campus for the winter.

 

didnt get to freezing at JFK or SW Nassau either, but thats likely to happen next week

 

[LibertyBell]

19 hours ago, bluewave said:

NYC average DJF 30 year  climate normals….

1991-2020….2020s….36.2

1981-2010…..2010s….35.1

1971-2000…..2000s…34.7

1961-1990…..1990s….33.9

 

Cold departure winters bolded
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Season	Mean Avg Temperature	Missing Count
2020-2021	36.1	0
2019-2020	39.2	0
2018-2019	36.3	0
2017-2018	36.2	0
2016-2017	39.3	0
2015-2016	41.0	0
2014-2015	31.4	0
2013-2014	32.9	0
2012-2013	36.8	0
2011-2012	40.5	0
2010-2011	32.8	0
2009-2010	33.8	0
2008-2009	34.2	0
2007-2008	36.4	0
2006-2007	36.5	0
2005-2006	37.3	0
2004-2005	35.4	0
2003-2004	32.4	0
2002-2003	31.2	0
2001-2002	41.5	0
2000-2001	33.5	0
1999-2000	36.2	0
1998-1999	38.6	0
1997-1998	39.6	0
1996-1997	37.8	0
1995-1996	32.2	0
1994-1995	37.1	0
1993-1994	31.1	0
1992-1993	35.0	0
1991-1992	37.2	0
1990-1991	39.1	0

 

wow this is amazing that the 2002-03 average winter temp was so close to 1993-94 yet 1993-94 gets so much more attention.  We had more snow here in 2002-03 and the snowstorms (well PD2) was bigger and the snow season lasted longer too!

 

[Rjay]

Interesting night on the island. Wind direction and warm waters do their thing.