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4 hours ago, bluewave said:

Yeah, those were the  last cold winters since our snowier era began in 02-03. 
 

Colder than normal winters bolded
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
2020-2021 36.1 0
2019-2020 39.2 0
2018-2019 36.3 0
2017-2018 36.2 0
2016-2017 39.3 0
2015-2016 41.0 0
2014-2015 31.4 0
2013-2014 32.9 0
2012-2013 36.8 0
2011-2012 40.5 0
2010-2011 32.8 0
2009-2010 33.8 0
2008-2009 34.2 0
2007-2008 36.4 0
2006-2007 36.5 0
2005-2006 37.3 0
2004-2005 35.4 0
2003-2004 32.4 0
2002-2003 31.2 0

last 20 winters in NYC...

year...........DJF ONI...snowfall...Dec-Feb temp...

2001-02..........-0.1..........3.5".....41.5.....warm snowless...

2002-03.........+0.9.......49.3".....31.2...cold snowy...

2003-04.........+0.4.......42.6".....32.4...cold snowy...

2004-05.........+0.6.......41.0".....35.4...ave...snowy...

2005-06..........-0.9.......40.0".....37.3...mild snowy...

2006-07..........+0.6.......12.4".....36.5...mild snowless...

2007-08..........-1.6........11.9".....36.4...mild snowless...

2008-09..........-0.8.......27.6".....34.2...cold near ave snow...

2009-10..........+1.5.......51.4".....33.8...cold snowy...

2010-11...........-1.4........61.9".....32.7...cold snowy...

2011-12...........-0.9.........7.4".....40.5...warm snowless...

2012-13..........-0.4.......26.1".....36.9...mild near ave snow...

2013-14..........-0.4.......57.4".....33.0...cold snowy...

2014-15.........+0.5.......50.3".....31.7...cold snowy...

2015-16.........+2.5.......32.8".....41.0...warm ave snow...

2016-17..........-0.3.......30.2".....39.3...warm ave snow...

2017-18..........-0.9.......40.9".....36.2...mild snowy...

2018-19..........+0.7.......20.5".....36.2...mild below ave snow...

2019-20..........+0.5........4.8".....39.1...warm snowless...

2020-21..........-1.0.......38.6".....36.1...mild snowy

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9 hours ago, uncle W said:

last 20 winters in NYC...

year...........DJF ONI...snowfall...Dec-Feb temp...

2001-02..........-0.1..........3.5".....41.5.....warm snowless...

2002-03.........+0.9.......49.3".....31.2...cold snowy...

2003-04.........+0.4.......42.6".....32.4...cold snowy...

2004-05.........+0.6.......41.0".....35.4...ave...snowy...

2005-06..........-0.9.......40.0".....37.3...mild snowy...

2006-07..........+0.6.......12.4".....36.5...mild snowless...

2007-08..........-1.6........11.9".....36.4...mild snowless...

2008-09..........-0.8.......27.6".....34.2...cold near ave snow...

2009-10..........+1.5.......51.4".....33.8...cold snowy...

2010-11...........-1.4........61.9".....32.7...cold snowy...

2011-12...........-0.9.........7.4".....40.5...warm snowless...

2012-13..........-0.4.......26.1".....36.9...mild near ave snow...

2013-14..........-0.4.......57.4".....33.0...cold snowy...

2014-15.........+0.5.......50.3".....31.7...cold snowy...

2015-16.........+2.5.......32.8".....41.0...warm ave snow...

2016-17..........-0.3.......30.2".....39.3...warm ave snow...

2017-18..........-0.9.......40.9".....36.2...mild snowy...

2018-19..........+0.7.......20.5".....36.2...mild below ave snow...

2019-20..........+0.5........4.8".....39.1...warm snowless...

2020-21..........-1.0.......38.6".....36.1...mild snowy

what were the winter average temperatures in 1993-94 and 1995-96?  2002-03 being the coldest really brings home the point that it was so underrated.  We had a snowy April too

 

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9 hours ago, jm1220 said:

03-04 I remember as being particularly frigid. The early Jan clipper in single digits that dropped 8” of powder, icebergs forming in the saltwater back bays, ice cutters on the Hudson etc. 

but 2002-03 was colder which shows why its underrated, and snowier and much longer too

 

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1 hour ago, LibertyBell said:

what were the winter average temperatures in 1993-94 and 1995-96?  2002-03 being the coldest really brings home the point that it was so underrated.  We had a snowy April too

 

NYC average DJF 30 year  climate normals….

1991-2020….2020s….36.2

1981-2010…..2010s….35.1

1971-2000…..2000s…34.7

1961-1990…..1990s….33.9

 

Cold departure winters bolded
 

Time Series Summary for NY CITY CENTRAL PARK, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.
Season
Mean Avg Temperature 
Missing Count
2020-2021 36.1 0
2019-2020 39.2 0
2018-2019 36.3 0
2017-2018 36.2 0
2016-2017 39.3 0
2015-2016 41.0 0
2014-2015 31.4 0
2013-2014 32.9 0
2012-2013 36.8 0
2011-2012 40.5 0
2010-2011 32.8 0
2009-2010 33.8 0
2008-2009 34.2 0
2007-2008 36.4 0
2006-2007 36.5 0
2005-2006 37.3 0
2004-2005 35.4 0
2003-2004 32.4 0
2002-2003 31.2 0
2001-2002 41.5 0
2000-2001 33.5 0
1999-2000 36.2 0
1998-1999 38.6 0
1997-1998 39.6 0
1996-1997 37.8 0
1995-1996 32.2 0
1994-1995 37.1 0
1993-1994 31.1 0
1992-1993 35.0 0
1991-1992 37.2 0
1990-1991 39.1 0

 

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The next 8 days are averaging  44degs.(39/49), or -1.

Month to date is  49.4[-0.3].      Should be near  47.8[-0.5] by the 28th.

Reached 48 here yesterday.

Today: 46-49, wind s. to sw., cloudier late.       EURO is the coldest for the next 10, with a little snow on the 28th./29th.

38*(68%RH) here at 6am.     40* at 8am.     42* at 9pm.     44* at 10am.       47* at Noon.     Reached 48* at 2pm.

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Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly sunny and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 46°

Newark: 50°

Philadelphia: 49°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 52.5°; 15-Year: 52.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 53.2°; 15-Year: 53.5°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 54.2°; 15-Year: 54.4°

Milder air will return tomorrow. However, a fresh push of cold air is likely early next week.

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NYC average DJF 30 year  climate normals….

1991-2020….2020s….36.2

1981-2010…..2010s….35.1

1971-2000…..2000s…34.7

1961-1990…..1990s….33.9

At the current rate,  in 20 years NYC will have Winters closer to DC and Northern VA.  Average Temps will be 38-39 and snowfall will be about 15 inches. 

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23 minutes ago, FoggyO said:
 

NYC average DJF 30 year  climate normals….

1991-2020….2020s….36.2

1981-2010…..2010s….35.1

1971-2000…..2000s…34.7

1961-1990…..1990s….33.9

At the current rate,  in 20 years NYC will have Winters closer to DC and Northern VA.  Average Temps will be 38-39 and snowfall will be about 15 inches. 

Not necessarily. Most of us had 40" or more snow last winter with it being above average temps. Average snow has been increasing with the temps. It definitely won't last forever but we're moving to a climate where we have 2-3 big storms give us snow vs numerous smaller storms. 

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The La Niña vortex in the Northeast Pacific this fall has been the strongest on record since the 1990s. The only other La Niña falls that came close were 2016 and 2011. But 2011 had the vortex further north near Alaska. This year is further south near the Pacific Northwest like 2016. The fall blocking near Greenland this year is closer to 2016 than 2011. So it’s important to see where the La Niña vortex sets up in December and how much blocking we get on the Atlantic side. Long range guidance is hinting that the Niña vortex may try to move over to the -PNA region.


8C0C040A-D594-4ACF-93FB-40D82231AD21.gif.a1608feab68fe86ae4ce8ff2c1bc8377.gif

40A5463E-DEFA-440F-948C-D76AD9B0137D.gif.f3ccf7f2a99821a4f98b29b19c72cef4.gif

49330672-D103-4552-8087-A29A568C038F.gif.c0520d0ee86fd5d7d0efe1e6210ff4be.gif

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2 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The La Niña vortex in the Northeast Pacific this fall has been among the strongest on record since the 1990s. The only other La Niña falls that came close were 2016 and 2011. But 2011 had the vortex further north near Alaska. This year is further south near the Pacific Northwest like 2016. The fall blocking near Greenland this year is closer to 2016 than 2011. So it’s important to see where the La Niña vortex sets up in December and how much blocking we get on the Atlantic side. Long range guidance is hinting that the Niña vortex may try to move over to the -PNA region.


8C0C040A-D594-4ACF-93FB-40D82231AD21.gif.a1608feab68fe86ae4ce8ff2c1bc8377.gif

40A5463E-DEFA-440F-948C-D76AD9B0137D.gif.f3ccf7f2a99821a4f98b29b19c72cef4.gif

49330672-D103-4552-8087-A29A568C038F.gif.c0520d0ee86fd5d7d0efe1e6210ff4be.gif

Thanks! 

Talk about polar opposite winters! Good to see we are closer to 2016 so far, two great storms that winter. 

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44 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Thanks! 

Talk about polar opposite winters! Good to see we are closer to 2016 so far, two great storms that winter. 

2016-2017 was one of our warmest winters due to the powerful La Niña Pacific Jet. But it was also snowy since we had favorable Atlantic blocking intervals for memorable snowstorms.  So hopefully we can do OK in the snowfall department if the winter turns out warm.


DC5CA334-5040-4FF7-A614-10C515198874.png.cb4f57994f229f976d636eb71b95c3b8.png

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57 minutes ago, bluewave said:

The La Niña vortex in the Northeast Pacific this fall has been the strongest on record since the 1990s. The only other La Niña falls that came close were 2016 and 2011. But 2011 had the vortex further north near Alaska. This year is further south near the Pacific Northwest like 2016. The fall blocking near Greenland this year is closer to 2016 than 2011. So it’s important to see where the La Niña vortex sets up in December and how much blocking we get on the Atlantic side. Long range guidance is hinting that the Niña vortex may try to move over to the -PNA region.

Now in the ENSO subsurface we have all warm anomalies. I'd love to see if there are examples of an ENSO state that had an opposite anomaly dominant in the central subsurface during November... 1988 is the only example I can think of (opposite). We all know 88-89 was a really Strong Nina. and there was actually high pressure from Japan to SE US all through Winter 87-88. Skewed averages puts subsurface warmth at probably ~0.0 now though. 

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1 hour ago, bluewave said:

2016-2017 was one of our warmest winters due to the powerful La Niña Pacific Jet. But it was also snowy since we had favorable Atlantic blocking intervals for memorable snowstorms.  So hopefully we can do OK in the snowfall department if the winter turns out warm.


DC5CA334-5040-4FF7-A614-10C515198874.png.cb4f57994f229f976d636eb71b95c3b8.png

Looking at your snips of this year vs. 2016, PAC looks a little worse however the Atlantic, blocking looks to be in a better position.

Feb 2018 shows that we can get a decent snowstorm in a sea of 60s and 70s temps. 

Personally I HATE the cold but LOVE snowstorms (if it snowed in Florida I would be there already).

So selfishly, the warmer times this century coupled with this being an extremely snowy time since 2000/2001 (only 6 below average snowfall seasons here this century) have made me a happy camper.

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10 minutes ago, uncle W said:

if you look at 2017-18's daily AO it snowed most of the time the AO was negative big time or briefly...

This is why I am not too worried about this winter as of yet, blocking looks to be there to some degree even though the Pacific looks fairly poor. We are far enough north where a good storm track (coupled with a depening storm) will yield results. I can't remember the last time we had a winter of blocking with below average snowfall (I think 97/98 may have had great blocking but far below average snowfall).

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