snowman19 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 39 minutes ago, bluewave said: You can see what the models are trying to do in the 11-14 day range by looking at the velocity potential charts. The La Niña standing wave is MJO 4-5. The forcing near Africa and South America closer to phase 1. So the RMM charts won’t be able to resolve all the forcing in multiple locations. This combination of phases in early December supports a +EPO and south based -AO -NAO extending to near the Canadian Maritimes. There is also a battle out West between a neutral to -PNA at times. Great post. Yea the RMM plots are chaos right now but we are seeing a phase 4-6 progression through early December. Looks like we go RNA/-PNA by early December which isn’t a surprise given the Niña/PDO/PMM background states 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: I see that! JFK 55F at moment! Good point on the ocean temperatures which never really cooled in October. This will come back to haunt Long Island in marginal situations in December If the wind is from the n/nw then it won’t make any difference for LI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Here comes the final La Niña boost and SST drop that Dr. Ventrice and others were forecasting last weekend: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 1/4 mile visibility in spots right now. Sun poking through is making it worse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mr. Kevin Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: You can see what the models are trying to do in the 11-14 day range by looking at the velocity potential charts. The La Niña standing wave is MJO 4-5. The forcing near Africa and South America closer to phase 1. So the RMM charts won’t be able to resolve all the forcing in multiple locations. This combination of phases in early December supports a +EPO and south based -AO -NAO extending to near the Canadian Maritimes. There is also a battle out West between a neutral to -PNA at times. Chris, I know we are in shorter wavelengths currently, but when we get to longer wavelengths, will the models and ensembles be able to better decipher the atmosphere? Just curious Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Neblizzard Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 2 hours ago, snowman19 said: Great post. Yea the RMM plots are chaos right now but we are seeing a phase 4-6 progression through early December. Looks like we go RNA/-PNA by early December which isn’t a surprise given the Niña/PDO/PMM background states The models can’t even get a pattern right within 3-5 days , do you buy everything they say when they show a breakdown ? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 58 minutes ago, Mr. Kevin said: Chris, I know we are in shorter wavelengths currently, but when we get to longer wavelengths, will the models and ensembles be able to better decipher the atmosphere? Just curious Models will always struggle beyond the day 6-10 ensemble means. But the extreme nature of the Pacific Jet this year really stands out. One record storm after another along the West Coast. The storms have been so intense, that they dropped the -PDO to near record lows for this time of year. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Neblizzard said: The models can’t even get a pattern right within 3-5 days , do you buy everything they say when they show a breakdown ? he buys what he wants to happen, thats why we call him Rainman. Just not as smart as Tom Cruise was in that movie lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 55 minutes ago, bluewave said: Models will always struggle beyond the day 6-10 ensemble means. But the extreme nature of the Pacific Jet this year really stands out. One record storm after another along the West Coast. The storms have been so intense, that they dropped the -PDO to near record lows for this time of year. What the heck happened in Vancouver? That was horrendous! I heard that enso is only responsible for about 20% of CONUS weather and this would've happened in other enso states too (maybe not to this degree.) Also how similar is this to the patterns we had in Fall 1989 and Fall 1998? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 3 hours ago, psv88 said: If the wind is from the n/nw then it won’t make any difference for LI exactly, this is why we had a snowstorm here in November 2012 a week after Sandy and the waters were really warm then too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 15 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: What the heck happened in Vancouver? That was horrendous! I heard that enso is only responsible for about 20% of CONUS weather and this would've happened in other enso states too (maybe not to this degree.) Also how similar is this to the patterns we had in Fall 1989 and Fall 1998? There is an ongoing marine heatwave covering parts of the Pacific Ocean. That has increased the intensity of atmospheric rivers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: exactly, this is why we had a snowstorm here in November 2012 a week after Sandy and the waters were really warm then too Glad I live a few miles away from the sound. It really can make a difference in Dec-for example Northport on the sound might get some slush but a few miles inland it can be a couple degrees colder and it accumulates better when the sound is still warm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 3 minutes ago, jm1220 said: Glad I live a few miles away from the sound. It really can make a difference in Dec-for example Northport on the sound might get some slush but a few miles inland it can be a couple degrees colder and it accumulates better when the sound is still warm. It's so weird because I remember LGA got mixed precip and JFK got snow, and we had a lot of snow around here, really wet heavy snow with branches coming down and treacherous driving conditions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 68 here, feeling like spring out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SRRTA22 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Awesome out there. I think im becoming @winterwarlock Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 As of 12:51 pm EST, Newark had recorded a daily high temperature of 70°. Today is Newark's 177th 70° or warmer day this year. The old record of 173 days was set in 2010. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 70 degrees here. Absolutely beautiful day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 63 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 had to turn on the ac today.. 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 65 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 69 here-just crazy Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 1 hour ago, donsutherland1 said: As of 12:51 pm EST, Newark had recorded a daily high temperature of 70°. Today is Newark's 177th 70° or warmer day this year. The old record of 173 days was set in 2010. Nice analog 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 69 here-just crazy Meh we always get 70s in November. Nothing special. Maybe if it was 80F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said: Meh we always get 70s in November. Nothing special. Maybe if it was 80F seems that the temps on the warmup as are always above forecast though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 The 72° at Newark so far is just 1° off the record high. Newark/Liberty MOSUNNY 72 48 42 S15 11/18 73 in 1963 72 in 1953 70 in 1931 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 13 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: seems that the temps on the warmup as are always above forecast though Full sun, southwest breeze Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Current temp is 73 here. Warm day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 35 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: 69 here-just crazy November 18th and I still have not had to turn my heat on once. Can’t ever remember that happening 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 10 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said: Full sun, southwest breeze yeah the key is the SW component, a S wind would keep most of us cooler right off the water... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 70 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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