SnoSki14 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The GFS still is having those skill drop outs at day 5 and beyond which puts it in last place. The Euro scores increased with upgrade. So the Euro hasn’t missed any storms to suppression since the upgrade. Hopefully, this continues through the winter. Euro missed the mark with the hybrid storm. It had the low tucked off NJ coast but it ended up SE of LI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 22 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Euro missed the mark with the hybrid storm. It had the low tucked off NJ coast but it ended up SE of LI. The Euro, CMC, and GFS were similar with the track SE of MTP last Saturday and Sunday. But the Euro had the 0z run on Monday which tucked 80 miles too far west. It quickly came back to the consensus on the 12z run Monday. So one over amped run in a series of good runs isn’t that big of a deal. The main problem with its coastal storm tracks in recent years has been suppression at times. Maybe an occasional over amped run in a series of good runs means that the issue was corrected. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted October 31, 2021 Author Share Posted October 31, 2021 21 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Euro missed the mark with the hybrid storm. It had the low tucked off NJ coast but it ended up SE of LI. Euro EPS or Euro OP? The EPS was very threatening with big goodyear tire circulation centered s of LI....far in advance. If we're talking OP... i don't remember details, EXCEPT, Tuesday morning I think that low was crossing sw LI near JFK... I do know there was a circulation there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Nice rainstorm next weekend on the Icon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyrangers1022 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Nice rainstorm next weekend on the Icon Theres nothing nice about a rainstorm on a weekend 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The Euro, CMC, and GFS were similar with the track SE of MTP last Saturday and Sunday. But the Euro had the 0z run on Monday which tucked 80 miles too far west. It quickly came back to the consensus on the 12z run Monday. So one over amped run in a series of good runs isn’t that big of a deal. The main problem with its coastal storm tracks in recent years has been suppression at times. Maybe an occasional over amped run in a series of good runs means that the issue was corrected. 6z 36 hrs out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: The Euro, CMC, and GFS were similar with the track SE of MTP last Saturday and Sunday. But the Euro had the 0z run on Monday which tucked 80 miles too far west. It quickly came back to the consensus on the 12z run Monday. So one over amped run in a series of good runs isn’t that big of a deal. The main problem with its coastal storm tracks in recent years has been suppression at times. Maybe an occasional over amped run in a series of good runs means that the issue was corrected. Main issue has been too amped and west for many years now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 8 minutes ago, qg_omega said: Main issue has been too amped and west for many years now Check out the euro for next weekend. Way flatter. Euro and eps sucks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Check out the euro for next weekend. Way flatter. Euro and eps sucks. Yes as expected. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 4 hours ago, qg_omega said: Main issue has been too amped and west for many years now It had numerous big snows too far south like the day before the January 2016 blizzard. Also It had to come NW in the short term with the early February 2021 follow up storm. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 Gfs is way more amplified for next weekend compared to previous runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 What the hell was that gust of wind that just blew by? Wow. And….it’s raining. Wtf? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 33 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gfs is way more amplified for next weekend compared to previous runs The 18z GFS corrected to the 12z EPS mean. 18z GFS 12z GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 I’m getting easy 30+mph gusts right now. Why? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 6 minutes ago, bluewave said: The 18z GFS corrected to the 12z EPS mean. 18z GFS 12z GFS Gefs is also more amplified Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 1 minute ago, guinness77 said: I’m getting easy 30+mph gusts right now. Why? its windy... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
guinness77 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 3 minutes ago, uncle W said: its windy... I’m just surprised. It was calm all day and there was no weather like this forecasted. First gust really caught me off guard. It’s funny (and typical) because it’s pretty gusty and I got these idiots in my neighborhood blowing off fireworks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 15 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs is also more amplified Any coastal storm next weekend will come at the time of the highest November tides with the new moon. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted October 31, 2021 Share Posted October 31, 2021 32 minutes ago, guinness77 said: I’m just surprised. It was calm all day and there was no weather like this forecasted. First gust really caught me off guard. It’s funny (and typical) because it’s pretty gusty and I got these idiots in my neighborhood blowing off fireworks. Yup blew through here too. Nasty 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 2 hours ago, guinness77 said: What the hell was that gust of wind that just blew by? Wow. And….it’s raining. Wtf? It came out of nowhere! Like a gust front…But its still October 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 I expect November to be yet another above normal month, nothing like October was, which was ridiculously warm, but something like a +1 - +2 AN month would not surprise me. After this week, we mild right back up again. You still have the troughing over AK and the GOA (+EPO)….you aren’t going to get cold with that look 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 1, 2021 Author Share Posted November 1, 2021 00z/1 EPS on the 5th-6th has trended weaker and further east as a possible grazer while the GEFS is positive tilt as previously 24 hours ago but continues much more interested in the 8th-9th (now extended into the 10th). Am surprised EPS has nothing signaled for the 8th-10th. Therefore, no consensus on either set of paired dates except 5th-6th per the 500MB patterns looks positive tilt and weaker than previously indicated (grazer) while 8th-10th-no EPS-GEFS consensus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 8 minutes ago, wdrag said: 00z/1 EPS on the 5th-6th has trended weaker and further east as a possible grazer while the GEFS is positive tilt as previously 24 hours ago but continues much more interested in the 8th-9th (now extended into the 10th). Am surprised EPS has nothing signaled for the 8th-10th. Therefore, no consensus on either set of paired dates except 5th-6th per the 500MB patterns looks positive tilt and weaker than previously indicated (grazer) while 8th-10th-no EPS-GEFS consensus. Let the winter model fun begin. This sounds a bit familiar to what we went thru leading up to last weeks coastal storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 October ended at 62.0[+4.1], 5th Place. Rain was 5.26", about 1" AN. The first 8 days of November are averaging 50degs.(46/54), or -1. Back to the 60's by mid-month? The GFS with 9 straight 60's----"Nice Winter We Are Not Having".......stan laurel. Reached 66* here yesterday. Today: 60-63, wind w., breezy, m. sunny, 47 by tomorrow AM. 53*(82%RH) here at 6am. 55* at 9am. 57* at 10am. 58* at Noon. 59* at 3pm. Reached 61* at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Interior areas could see first freeze this week with the first 30s possible closer to the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 Morning thoughts... Today will be partly sunny and cooler. Temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s across much of the region. Likely high temperatures include: New York City (Central Park): 59° Newark: 63° Philadelphia: 61° Tomorrow will be noticeably cooler. Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 58.9°; 15-Year: 59.0° Newark: 30-Year: 60.2°; 15-Year: 60.6° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 61.2°; 15-Year: 61.2° 30-Day Verification: New York City (Central Park): Average daily forecast: 67.3° Average temperature: 67.8° Average error: 1.3° Newark: Average daily forecast: 71.8° Average temperature: 72.4° Average error: 1.3° Philadelphia: Average daily forecast: 71.4° Average temperature: 71.6° Average error: 1.5° Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 I do think mid November (or even earlier) will be mild but I also see that being transient. I think the last third will turn cooler and that will go along with the expected blocking in December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 23 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: I do think mid November (or even earlier) will be mild but I also see that being transient. I think the last third will turn cooler and that will go along with the expected blocking in December. As long as you have troughing over AK and the GOA (+EPO), you aren’t getting arctic cold. That has to change. All -NAO/-AO would do is bring down PAC maritime junk air in that setup. I think we end up with yet another above normal month 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IrishRob17 Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Interior areas could see first freeze this week with the first 30s possible closer to the coast. GFS has me going below freezing Wednesday morning with the Euro saying its Thursday morning. The IMBY average first freezing date is 10/21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 1, 2021 Share Posted November 1, 2021 in the winter time after a winter storm there is usually another storm in the forecast...I can remember that going back to the March 1960 storm...most of the time the storm never came or was minor...The video of the 1967 blizzard on you tube says another storm is on the horizen...that turned out to be a 2" event... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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