BxEngine Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Its november. If you need help finding the d*ck measuring contest websites, @Rjay can help. Otherwise, stop posting childish bs. Thanks. 2 1 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 2 hours ago, uncle W said: 31 for my first freeze...Central Park 39... Must be the overgrown foliage… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 9 minutes ago, BxEngine said: Its november. If you need help finding the d*ck measuring contest websites, @Rjay can help. Otherwise, stop posting childish bs. Thanks. Good morning BxE, Rjay. I’m sure your both up to dealing with us in the coming cold season. However, I’m really not looking for a ‘measuring’ sight … if you have any leads on a ‘finding’ sight, well …… As always …. 1 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 hour ago, LongBeachSurfFreak said: Growing season still going strong on the uws. I still have tropicals out on campus my tomato plant is still alive... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 1 hour ago, uofmiami said: 27.7 in Muttontown & 28.9 in Syosset this morning. Wow…shocked I was colder than your Muttontown station. I was 27.1. It usually beats me for cold 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Matter of time until we start tracking snow. Early December ? Return of December 5? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 26° 46° now Filtered Sun Tough to reach 60° If it doesn't unfilter soon 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: If the MJO progresses as expected, the pattern will turn mild and we loose the blocking as we get into early December. The composites for MJO 4, 5, 6 along with La Niña and -AAM look like this in December: C'mon with the trolling man. Did you even read the remainder of the thread? 1 3 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Did he even look at the MJO forecasts. Majority show the MJO going to 7-1 Those plots are inaccurate. The MJO is going phases 4-6 (Niña). We aren’t going to see the waves getting into phases 7, 8 and 1 because of the La Niña. When the waves try to propagate into those areas they will get sheared to shreads and ripped apart by the strong easterlies and cold waters from the Niña 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Must be a concrete jungle. We've had multiple freezes already in central NJ and seen 20s at least twice. I thought it'd get a few degrees colder here. Wind seem calm..ideal for most places but I've heard it been said calm winds isn't always the best in the most urbanized areas for coldest temps since a breeze can act like a fan on the UHI. Sat am first shot at freezing? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 5 hours ago, snowman19 said: Those plots are inaccurate. The MJO is going phases 4-6 (Niña). We aren’t going to see the waves getting into phases 7, 8 and 1 because of the La Niña. When the waves try to propagate into those areas they will get sheared to shreads and ripped apart by the strong easterlies and cold waters from the Niña La Nina is east based 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwx21 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 3 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: Must be a concrete jungle. We've had multiple freezes already in central NJ and seen 20s at least twice. Yeah, which has killed the sensitive plants like tomatoes of course. But the cold hardy vegetables are still fine. I just looked at the lettuce and it still looks fine. We've dropped to the upper 20s, but it takes several hours in the mid 20s to kill the cold hardy vegetables. So the gardening season in our area still isn't completely over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 56 minutes ago, MJO812 said: La Nins is east based What does that have anything to do with what phase the MJO propagates to? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North and West Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 2 hours ago, uncle W said: my tomato plant is still alive... That's bonkers. I think the UHI is always most pronounced in transitional seasons. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 20 minutes ago, snowman19 said: What does that have anything to do with what phase the MJO propagates to? You do realize there are other factors besides the MJO right ? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 3 hours ago, MJO812 said: La Nins is east based That’s a good thing so far and hopefully it gets more east based but the PDO is awful to put it mildly. We can still have Atlantic blocking which looks to set in late this month and hopefully lasts into Dec. So it’ll be dueling influences on how things turn out. Where the Aleutian ridge sets up is key too, hopefully we can get that set up steep and far north so it can surge cold air coming into Canada. If that ridge is flatter it just brings in Pacific air into the continent. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uofmiami Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 5 hours ago, psv88 said: Wow…shocked I was colder than your Muttontown station. I was 27.1. It usually beats me for cold Light winds at times will do that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 36 minutes ago, jm1220 said: That’s a good thing so far and hopefully it gets more east based but the PDO is awful to put it mildly. We can still have Atlantic blocking which looks to set in late this month and hopefully lasts into Dec. So it’ll be dueling influences on how things turn out. Where the Aleutian ridge sets up is key too, hopefully we can get that set up steep and far north so it can surge cold air coming into Canada. If that ridge is flatter it just brings in Pacific air into the continent. We'll need some western ridging otherwise it won't be great. Atlantic blocking is a must otherwise it'll look like 2001. It's gonna be another tough year with models I think. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Temperatures rose well into the 50s in the northern Mid-Atlantic region today. At Philadelphia, the mercury surged to 66°. Ahead of the next cold front, tomorrow will see this warmth overspread much of the region resulting in unseasonable warmth. This warmth will be short-lived. Noticeably colder air will return on Friday. Another surge of cold air is possible early next week. Overall, it is likely that the temperature anomaly for the second half of November will be somewhat below normal due to the development of AO blocking. The latest teleconnections forecasts suggest that the AO will drop sharply to somewhere between -3.000 and -1.000 on or after November 20. Such an outcome favors a period of colder than normal weather (November 20-30, 1991-2020 period): Boston: Normal: 42.2°; AO cases: 38.4° New York City: Normal: 45.5°; AO cases: 41.7° Philadelphia: Normal: 45.4°; AO cases: 41.7° Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 16 4 pm is 16.13". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter. The SOI was +14.44 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.343 today. On November 15 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.341 (RMM). The November 14-adjusted amplitude was 1.391 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 67% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.3° (0.7° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 9 hours ago, rclab said: Good morning BxE, Rjay. I’m sure your both up to dealing with us in the coming cold season. However, I’m really not looking for a ‘measuring’ sight … if you have any leads on a ‘finding’ sight, well …… As always …. Thank you Rjay, good enough. As always …. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 8 hours ago, MJO812 said: La Nina is east based Exactly, the people who are calling for a mild snowless winter are going to be in for a big surprise. The winter of 2010-2011 had an extremely strong La Niña with a supposedly “bad mjo” at times yet there were still multiple blizzards in my area that year. This La Niña is even more east based than that one was, though it is also weaker (moderate strength rather than strong, but still powerful enough to influence the pattern). The MJO looks pretty weak to me right now, and there are signs of severe North Atlantic blocking for early December. This winter has a lot of potential. The La Niña= bad thing is not accurate for NYC north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Santa Claus Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 10 hours ago, BxEngine said: If you need help finding the d*ck measuring contest websites, @Rjay can help. you guys never sent my prize after i won the last one 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 1 hour ago, Will - Rutgers said: you guys never sent my prize after i won the last one Good evening Will. Rjay will get it for you. He may charge a ‘finders’ fee. As always … 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly cloudy and unseasonably warm. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 60s in most of the region. A few locations will reach 70°. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 64° Newark: 69° Philadelphia: 70° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 53.2°; 15-Year: 53.2° Newark: 30-Year: 54.0°; 15-Year: 54.2° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.0°; 15-Year: 55.0° A cold front will bring a period of rain overnight. Much cooler weather will follow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 40F This morning in Westchester 49F In the concrete jungle (Bronx) That is why we have some city folk talking about their thriving tomatoes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 5 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: 40F This morning in Westchester 49F In the concrete jungle (Bronx) That is why we have some city folk talking about their thriving tomatoes The near record warm ocean is more impressive. Long Island pushing 60° with a southerly wind. The SSTs are still near 60° in late November. Shirley CLEAR 59 51 75 S9 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 Just a slight difference D14-16 on the GEFS/GEPS...the EPS looks more like the GEFS though with a western trof Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 21 minutes ago, bluewave said: The near record warm ocean is more impressive. Long Island pushing 60° with a southerly wind. The SSTs are still near 60° in late November. Shirley CLEAR 59 51 75 S9 I see that! JFK 55F at moment! Good point on the ocean temperatures which never really cooled in October. This will come back to haunt Long Island in marginal situations in December Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 31 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Just a slight difference D14-16 on the GEFS/GEPS...the EPS looks more like the GEFS though with a western trof You can see what the models are trying to do in the 11-14 day range by looking at the velocity potential charts. The La Niña standing wave is MJO 4-5. The forcing near Africa and South America closer to phase 1. So the RMM charts won’t be able to resolve all the forcing in multiple locations. This combination of phases in early December supports a +EPO and south based -AO -NAO extending to near the Canadian Maritimes. There is also a battle out West between a neutral to -PNA at times. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 18, 2021 Share Posted November 18, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 46degs.(40/53), or +1. Month to date is 49.3[+0.7]. Should be near 48.3[+0.8] by the 26th. Reached 58 here yesterday. Today: 62-66, wind w., cloudier late. Maybe three cold days in the next 15. GFS heads for the 70's at the start of December-----Everyone in the Pool! 55*(85%RH) here at 6am. 57* at 9am. 61* at Noon. 63* at 1pm. 64* at 1:30pm. Reached 66* at 4pm and held there all the way to 6pm. Down to 51* at 11pm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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