SnowGoose69 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 55 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s remarkable how that November 1995 pattern locked in right through April. That was an example of a stuck weather pattern from before the 2010s era. It will be interesting to see how low we can extend that 6-10 day +EPO, SW ridge, and -NAO. Ultimately it was not that cold of a winter though because that massive January thaw as well as 12/20-12/30 was somewhat warm too I think. There was some belief that 95-96 was a product precip wise of that long duration El Nino from 1990-94 more or less and we had a lag which enabled there to be so much juice and storms despite the La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, bluewave said: I know we had a 2-3” snow event around NYC at the end of November 1995. But the highest impact storm that month was the November 11th powerful cutter. I had 70-75 mph SSW gusts with a severe squall line that came through near midnight. Quite a few power outages around the area after that severe event. That was the only storm that winter which got badly blown...when you consider you had the ETA which was 18 months in, the NGM the AVN and the Euro running once a day its amazing how well forecast most of the events that winter were.....the 12/19 event the mid level warm nose was missed for S LI but they still reached the expected amounts of 6-10 more or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 Working up a cautious thread... very cautious. You may not like it but there is so much chatter about potential... I am liking after Thanks giving overall better. Will try to briefly explain in thread. Should post by 715P. Few if any graphics, just not enough consensus to hang my hat on. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 42 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Ultimately it was not that cold of a winter though because that massive January thaw as well as 12/20-12/30 was somewhat warm too I think. There was some belief that 95-96 was a product precip wise of that long duration El Nino from 1990-94 more or less and we had a lag which enabled there to be so much juice and storms despite the La Nina it looks cold to me 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 1995-96 had two major thaws the last week of Jan and Feb 1996...2002-03 was a colder winter in NYC...1993-94 was colder also...Feb 1994 had a major thaw... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 41 minutes ago, forkyfork said: it looks cold to me I don't consider -1.5 which NYC was I think to be that cold. -3 or -4 below normal or more is where it begins in my mind Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: It’s remarkable how that November 1995 pattern locked in right through April. That was an example of a stuck weather pattern from before the 2010s era. It will be interesting to see how low we can extend that 6-10 day +EPO, SW ridge, and -NAO. Stuck patterns have been the norm the past few years too. Stuck model forecasting…not so much :-P. So let’s see if we can get some run-to-run consistency on this. Coincidentally, Vet’s Day 1995 featured a high-wind event. So too did 11/13/21…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 1 hour ago, uncle W said: Mainly a grass and cold surface event. kicked off a great winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 1 hour ago, SnowGoose69 said: I don't consider -1.5 which NYC was I think to be that cold. -3 or -4 below normal or more is where it begins in my mind -1.5 in this new climate is very cold 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 lowest AO numbers for December... -5.821...12/21/2009...11" snowstorm 12/19-20...snow on the ground Christmas... -5.287...12/29/1976....2" snowfall 12/29...snow Christmas night... -5.265...12/18/2010...20" 12/26-27... -4.688...12/29/2000...12" 12/30...trace on the ground Christmas... -4.547...12/27/1968.....2" 12/28... -4.470...12/20/1963...7" 12/23-24...6" on the ground Christmas... -4.353...12/19/1995...8" 12/19-20...4" on the ground Christmas...flurries at night... -4.353...12/26/1950...3" 12/26... -4.159...12/31/1962...cold wave...flurries...big storm in the Gulf of Maine...1" on the ground Christmas afternoon... -4.147...12/13/1966...wet snow 12/13-14...7" on the ground Christmas morning... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STORMANLI Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Seem to recall temp reached 64° the day before. Factored into forecasters reluctance in predicting accumulating snow. If there was any guidance that even hinted at it, given antecedent conditions, would be hard to take seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 12 hours ago, Allsnow said: Definitely some red flags going into this winter but if we keep the Pv from coupling we will have chances. Here is the risk you warned about…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 4 hours ago, uncle W said: 1995-96 had two major thaws the last week of Jan and Feb 1996...2002-03 was a colder winter in NYC...1993-94 was colder also...Feb 1994 had a major thaw... all winters have thaws 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: That was the only storm that winter which got badly blown...when you consider you had the ETA which was 18 months in, the NGM the AVN and the Euro running once a day its amazing how well forecast most of the events that winter were.....the 12/19 event the mid level warm nose was missed for S LI but they still reached the expected amounts of 6-10 more or less. yep about the same NYC got Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 5 hours ago, SnowGoose69 said: Ultimately it was not that cold of a winter though because that massive January thaw as well as 12/20-12/30 was somewhat warm too I think. There was some belief that 95-96 was a product precip wise of that long duration El Nino from 1990-94 more or less and we had a lag which enabled there to be so much juice and storms despite the La Nina 12/20-12/30 wasnt warm, we had snow from mid December (from the above storm) that stuck on the ground all the way to the January blizzard...as a matter of fact late December and early January was probably the most consistently cold that it was that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 6 hours ago, bluewave said: I know we had a 2-3” snow event around NYC at the end of November 1995. But the highest impact storm that month was the November 11th powerful cutter. I had 70-75 mph SSW gusts with a severe squall line that came through near midnight. Quite a few power outages around the area after that severe event. 3-6" inches on Long Island, I loved that storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 10 hours ago, KEITH L.I said: Why are you obsessed with JB?..he's just like you, except you hype warmth he pops in all of a sudden during warm patterns and mysteriously disappears during cold patterns lol and the most ironic thing is his handle is "snowman" I wish a mod would change it to "rainman" like the guy in the movie ;-) 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Gfs might be coming on board. Develops a low closer to the coast. Here is the CMC 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Down to 35 here. Coldest of the season so far 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly to mostly sunny but still cool. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 48° Newark: 52° Philadelphia: 50° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 53.9°; 15-Year: 53.9° Newark: 30-Year: 54.7°; 15-Year: 54.9° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 55.7°; 15-Year: 55.7° Warmer air will arrive tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 49degs.(41/57), or +3. Month to date is 49.8[-0.5]. Should be 49.5[+0.7] by the 24th. The last 14 days of the month figure on being near Normal at 44(38/49) from this vantage point. Reached 48 yesterday. Today: 47-50, wind w., m. sunny. 38*(70%RH) here at 6am. 41* at 9am. 46* at Noon. 50* at 2pm. Reached 51* at 3:30pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 37 here and cold. hear on blast day off just relaxing under my blanket. i lost my damn remote control for my tv and i can't watch tv so i'm just on my phone maybe i'll go to cvs and get me one of those universal remotes when it warms up a bit! if i were to guess for a big storm that could produce some snow even on the coast would be end of this month! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dWave Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 37..tied coldest of the season so far. Frost advisory tomorrow am for Bronx, Manhattan, Hudson County, NJ, Southern Nassau 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 November continuing the post 2010 pattern of having the lowest monthly departure of fall. Station…..Nov…..Oct…..Sep EWR….+1.1….+6.9….+3.3 NYC….-0.5….+4.1…..+1.1 JFK…+0.8…..+5.8….+2.3 LGA…+1.4…..+5.1….+1.9 HPN…-0.5….+5.6….+1.3 ISP……-0.1….+5.5…..+2.7 BDR….+0.1….+4.7….+2.2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 36 here in Brooklyn 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 On 11/15/2021 at 11:46 AM, Allsnow said: I think you just repeated what I posted lol. I’m not debating that it won’t get cold/blocky next week. I'm just saying that going into December things might get hostile if blocking were to break down Dr. Paul Roundy, the premier expert on the MJO (developed the Roundy plots) agrees with your concerns. He is forecasting the AO/NAO blocking to only be temporary as the MJO forcing becomes hostile once we get into early December: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 16, 2021 Share Posted November 16, 2021 Warmer air will move back into the region tomorrow. Ahead of the next cold front, Thursday will see much above normal temperatures. Noticeably colder air will return on Friday. Another surge is possible early next week. Overall, it is likely that the temperature anomaly for the second half of November will be somewhat below normal due to the development of AO blocking. The latest teleconnections forecasts suggest that the AO will drop sharply to somewhere between -3.000 and -1.000 on or after November 20. Such an outcome favors a period of colder than normal weather (November 20-30, 1991-2020 period): Boston: Normal: 42.2°; AO cases: 38.4° New York City: Normal: 45.5°; AO cases: 41.7° Philadelphia: Normal: 45.4°; AO cases: 41.7° Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 16 4 pm is 16.13". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter. The SOI was +2.03 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.928 today. On November 14 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.388 (RMM). The November 13-adjusted amplitude was 1.189 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 66% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.4° (0.6° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Down to 33 now which should be the coldest night of the fall as we drop into the 20’s Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 17, 2021 Share Posted November 17, 2021 Down to 29F, tied for coldest night so far this season. Should get a little bit lower before things moderate. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now