SnoSki14 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Source region is cold despite +EPO You don't need Arctic air for snow. Blocking showing up late November into December is great for snow chances. You do want some spikes in western ridging though. A +EPO with a western trough is no bueno. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, MJO812 said: The MJO is currently muted and barely has any effect right now. Gfs is blocky next week You don’t read very well. This is post thanksgiving week i’m referring to and the MJO is going to be a factor. Stop with the JB propaganda 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 6 minutes ago, snowman19 said: You don’t read very well. This is post thanksgiving week in referring to and the MJO is going to be a factor. Stop with the JB propaganda It's not JB propaganda No one takes you seriously Post Thanksgiving week isnt warm at all on the models. Do you even look at the models ? 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Source region is cold despite +EPO You don't need Arctic air for snow. Blocking showing up late November into December is great for snow chances. Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 8 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Blocking isn't going to break down next week into December. There is strong model agreement on the block establishing itself. The question becomes how long it will last. I think you just repeated what I posted lol. I’m not debating that it won’t get cold/blocky next week. I'm just saying that going into December things might get hostile if blocking were to break down 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, Allsnow said: I think you just repeated what I posted lol. I’m not debating that it won’t get cold/blocky next week. I'm just saying that going into December things might get hostile if blocking were to break down Agree Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 All 3 models have something to watch for next week. Interior would be favored but at least it's something to track. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KEITH L.I Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: You don’t read very well. This is post thanksgiving week i’m referring to and the MJO is going to be a factor. Stop with the JB propaganda Why are you obsessed with JB?..he's just like you, except you hype warmth 4 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 This is going to change so many times. Mid Atlantic snow ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, MJO812 said: This is going to change so many times. Mid Atlantic snow ? What a bizarre scenario this would be. Reminds me of that 2010 storm where we snowed and SNE rained Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Based on the 12z GFS ensembles, west-building -NAO at 384hr, look for a Winterstorm (maybe 12"+) ~Dec 5th. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 15, 2021 Author Share Posted November 15, 2021 Am remote seeing only your data but probably will carefully start a thread this evening. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Block is insane on the euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 if we get another -5sd AO I'll bet my house we see a blockbuster snowstorm this winter...I'd rather see it in December like 2009 and 2010...2002 had one in October and 1959 had one in November...not only did they both have a blockbuster snowstorm but snow on the ground for Christmas... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 3 hours ago, snowman19 said: You don’t read very well. This is post thanksgiving week i’m referring to and the MJO is going to be a factor. Stop with the JB propaganda We all understand your point of view and, to be sure, there're plenty of factors that weigh in favor of below-normal snowfall this winter. But don't you agree that such an anomalous blocking episode in late Nov./early Dec. increases the probability that we see further such episodes and, in turn, overcome those factors? Also, not for nothing, but even though Anthony is a (proud) snow-weenie, I feel like you're the only one on here who regularly references JB. It doesn't do your arguments any favors. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 The day 6-10 EPS 500 mb pattern is similar to November 1995. While it’s showing a more +EPO than 1995, the SW ridge near California and the -NAO block resembles 1995. It will be interesting to see how long we can hold that kind of a pattern. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eduardo Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: The day 6-10 EPS 500 mb pattern is similar to November 1995. While it’s showing a more +EPO than 1995, the SW ridge near California and the -NAO block resembles 1995. It will be interesting to see how long we can hold that kind of a pattern. Nice post, Chris! Get this look inside of 5 days and we just might have something to be excited about! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RippleEffect Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 that's a big storm showing up on gfs and euro for next tuesday. looks fun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nycwinter Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 22 minutes ago, RippleEffect said: that's a big storm showing up on gfs and euro for next tuesday. looks fun that is when a lot of people get away for the thanksgiving holiday they leave on tuesday not on wednesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt8204 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 17 minutes ago, nycwinter said: that is when a lot of people get away for the thanksgiving holiday they leave on tuesday not on wednesday Yeah, next week in general is often a hectic one. Some folks take the entire week off (my mom always used to since she only had to use three vacation days) and you have kids coming home from college early in the week if they don't have a lot of classes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 I love the wet-STJ (potential energy)as the NAO tanks negative the first week of Dec! Let's see if it holds. (Sometimes recently the long range 15+D -NAO hasn't held). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 1 hour ago, Eduardo said: Nice post, Chris! Get this look inside of 5 days and we just might have something to be excited about! It’s remarkable how that November 1995 pattern locked in right through April. That was an example of a stuck weather pattern from before the 2010s era. It will be interesting to see how low we can extend that 6-10 day +EPO, SW ridge, and -NAO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Tomorrow will be another unseasonably cool day. Warmer air will move back into the region on Wednesday. Ahead of the next cold front, Thursday will see much above normal temperatures. Overall, it is now more likely than not that the temperature anomaly for the second half of November will be near or somewhat below normal. The latest teleconnections forecasts suggest that the AO will drop sharply to somewhere between -3.000 and -1.000 on or after November 20. Such an outcome favors a period of colder than normal weather (November 20-30, 1991-2020 period): Boston: Normal: 42.2°; AO cases: 38.4° New York City: Normal: 45.5°; AO cases: 41.7° Philadelphia: Normal: 45.4°; AO cases: 41.7° Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 15 4 pm is 16.13". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.7°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -0.8°C for the week centered around November 10. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.53°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.85°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter. The SOI was -6.81 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +0.917 today. On November 13 the MJO was in Phase 5 at an amplitude of 1.187 (RMM). The November 12-adjusted amplitude was 1.107 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 64% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.5° (0.5° below normal). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 3 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s remarkable how that November 1995 pattern locked in right through April. That was an example of a stuck weather pattern from before the 2010s era. It will be interesting to see how low we can extend that 6-10 day pattern. what an incredible year that was...even the 3 week thaw in Jan featured storm after storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Tatamy Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 Just now, Brian5671 said: what an incredible year that was...even the 3 week thaw in Jan featured storm after storm. Every Friday night it seemed to snow. Don’t ever recall anything like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s remarkable how that November 1995 pattern locked in right through April. That was an example of a stuck weather pattern from before the 2010s era. It will be interesting to see how low we can extend that 6-10 day +EPO, SW ridge, and -NAO. November was a big month for the interior if I recall correctly? I know we had one event closer to the coast but I believe that was after thanksgiving Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncle W Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 9 minutes ago, bluewave said: It’s remarkable how that November 1995 pattern locked in right through April. That was an example of a stuck weather pattern from before the 2010s era. It will be interesting to see how low we can extend that 6-10 day +EPO, SW ridge, and -NAO. it was locked in from Nov 95 to Nov 96...then it flipped... 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 12 minutes ago, Allsnow said: November was a big month for the interior if I recall correctly? I know we had one event closer to the coast but I believe that was after thanksgiving I know we had a 2-3” snow event around NYC at the end of November 1995. But the highest impact storm that month was the November 11th powerful cutter. I had 70-75 mph SSW gusts with a severe squall line that came through near midnight. Quite a few power outages around the area after that severe event. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 15, 2021 Share Posted November 15, 2021 7 minutes ago, bluewave said: I know we had a 2-3” snow event around NYC at the end of November 1995. But the highest impact storm that month was the November 11th powerful cutter. I had 70-75 mph SSW gusts with a severe squall line that came through near midnight. Quite a few power outages around the area after that severe event. we'll probably have to wait until after mid december to get a legit snowstorm like in 1995, 2000, and 2010 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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