November 2021

[StormchaserChuck!]

18z GFS ensembles has a real nice +PNA,-NAO Nov 28th. 

[psv88]

1 hour ago, dmillz25 said:

Sleet snow and rain mix here in Williamsburg 

Unlikely…it’s 44 degrees out 

[wdrag]

00z/15 EPS has minor snow accumulations entire region Tue the 23rd. GEFS not.

Am not quite as enamored with the evolving trough for early next week... hints of digging in too far north. Might be setting us up for Sunday-Monday 28th-29th but that also is not supported by ensemble low pressures.  So, will wait awhile on any thread.  Have a day. 

[dmillz25]

6 hours ago, psv88 said:

Unlikely…it’s 44 degrees out 

Unlikely? What I felt and saw outside wasn’t just rain. Definitely saw sleet and or graupel 

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be partly to mostly sunny but unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 40s and lower 50s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 47°

Newark: 51°

Philadelphia: 51°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 54.2°; 15-Year: 54.2°

Newark: 30-Year: 55.1°; 15-Year: 55.3°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.1°; 15-Year: 56.1°

Warmer air will arrive on Wednesday.

[Rtd208]

51 minutes ago, wdrag said:

00z/15 EPS has minor snow accumulations entire region Tue the 23rd. GEFS not.

Am not quite as enamored with the evolving trough for early next week... hints of digging in too far north. Might be setting us up for Sunday-Monday 28th-29th but that also is not supported by ensemble low pressures.  So, will wait awhile on any thread.  Have a day. 

Meanwhile the 06z GFS Op shows the storm for the Tues-Thurs period next week. 

[Heisy]

1 hour ago, wdrag said:

00z/15 EPS has minor snow accumulations entire region Tue the 23rd. GEFS not.

Am not quite as enamored with the evolving trough for early next week... hints of digging in too far north. Might be setting us up for Sunday-Monday 28th-29th but that also is not supported by ensemble low pressures.  So, will wait awhile on any thread.  Have a day. 

6z GFS has a large closed ULL for 23rd now

[wdrag]

26 minutes ago, Rtd208 said:

Meanwhile the 06z GFS Op shows the storm for the Tues-Thurs period next week. 

Yes, I see that (after my pre 06z/15 GFS op post). Not reacting to a single member (or few) D8 nice track-storm. 06Z GEFS will now have snow to the coast, I would presume, due to this member.  

Pattern just not what I can try to lock a scenario onto. I'll wait til this evening, if I do thread at that time. 

[wdrag]

6 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

6z GFS has a large closed ULL for 23rd now

Nice run... EC/CMC op's not there on the 06z/15 GFS op run, tho CMC strong.  06Z GEFS...no snow on the coast, tho that could be grid related.  It's got snow to about I95...minor.  Just not enough consensus for me...still looks too far N or too late for me via ensembles. That could change more favorably. Later, Walt

[bluewave]

All the guidance is correcting stronger with the -NAO -AO blocking for late November. This is what we want to see during La Ninas in November for winter blocking intervals and better snowfall chances.The individual storm details will probably have to wait until we get within the 120 hr range.

New run

Old run

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging 47degs.(41/53), or +1.

Month to date is  50.3[-0.2].        Should be  49.1[+0.3] by the 23rd.

Reached 48 yesterday.

Today: 46-49, wind w. and breezy, clearing late.

For the record: GFS with 4" on the 22nd./23rd., now.

43*(83%RH) here at 6am.      44*/45* all morning-Noon.      47* at 1pm.

[White Gorilla]

42 minutes ago, Wentzadelphia said:

6z GFS has a large closed ULL for 23rd now

It's about time we get away from sexere threats from cold fronts to cold season, winter synoptic patterns and forecasts.  Had enough of tornadoes in our neck of the woods.  Had a tornado 5 miles from me on Friday.  Good to see blue back on maps, actual outcome to be seen. 

[bluewave]

Great illustration of how an extreme La Niña Pacific Jet can trigger a wave breaking event that pumps the -NAO -AO block.

 

 

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Kind of silly, but we have been running opposite of last year 500mb N. Hemisphere at >75% each month of the last 4(Aug-Nov), continues into Dec1. 

https://ibb.co/QCfJQ28

https://ibb.co/QnqgC5J

 

https://ibb.co/cDRTQcn

 

https://ibb.co/Trg2KZj

https://ibb.co/SVfYRfj

[StormchaserChuck!]

^new 6z GFS https://ibb.co/JpL89sK   https://ibb.co/QnqgC5J

[LoboLeader1]

 

[StormchaserChuck!]

Over +300dm -NAO https://ibb.co/Ws4YhkZ

 

[Allsnow]

Definitely some red flags going into this winter but if we keep the Pv from coupling we will have chances. 

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Definitely some red flags going into this winter but if we keep the Pv from coupling we will have chances. 

What red flags are there ?

[Allsnow]

3 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

What red flags are there ?

Mjo, enso, lower hgts in AK and potential Pv coupling to name a few 

[Brian5671]

1 minute ago, Allsnow said:

Mjo, enso, lower hgts in AK and potential Pv coupling to name a few 

Torch water temps in the Atlantic too which can be a problem 1st half of winter

[SnoSki14]

39 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Definitely some red flags going into this winter but if we keep the Pv from coupling we will have chances. 

Models seeing the -NAO is a very good sign though. 

That'll guarantee some snowy chances at least. 

[STORMANLI]

 

KFRG 151453Z 26013KT 10SM SN OVC023 07/02 A2978 RMK AO2 SNB49 SLP085 P0000 60000 T00720022 51013

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[winterwx21]

Looks as if we have a good chance of seeing 70 degrees thursday with the surge of warm air ahead of the front. Probably our last warm day for quite awhile with the blocking setting up for late November.

[MJO812]

40 minutes ago, Brian5671 said:

Torch water temps in the Atlantic too which can be a problem 1st half of winter

It can also help with storms

[snowman19]

41 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

Mjo, enso, lower hgts in AK and potential Pv coupling to name a few 

We agree. The +EPO is going to limit any cold. And the WPO is only weakly negative. Also extremely unlikely the +PNA has any staying power given the -PDO, La Niña, -PMM background states.? Once we get into early December, the MJO will support a warming trend. The SPV is becoming very strong and if it couples with the TPV, we have a problem 

This is not a good sign: 

 

[MJO812]

7 minutes ago, snowman19 said:

We agree. The +EPO is going to limit any cold. And the WPO is only weakly negative. Once we get into early December, the MJO will support a warming trend. The SPV is becoming very strong and if it couples with the TPV, we have a problem 

This is not a good sign: 

 

The MJO is currently  muted and barely has any effect right now.

Gfs is blocky next week 

[Allsnow]

2 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

The MJO is currently  muted and barely has anything effect right now.

Gfs is blocky next week 

His post is referring to what happens after thanksgiving as we get into December. It’s very much up for debate on what happens if the blocking breaks down.

 

 

[MJO812]

If the models are right with blocking , we should see snow pretty soon ( early December )

[MJO812]

3 minutes ago, Allsnow said:

His post is referring to what happens after thanksgiving as we get into December. It’s very much up for debate on what happens if the blocking breaks down 

Blocking isn't going to break down next week into December.  There is strong model agreement on the block establishing itself. The question becomes how long it will last.