CIK62 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Ha! Ha! Ha!--- this is Pittsburgh, not NYC. Latest run cuts this in half, however. Even we go from 0.5" to ZERO, lol---as storm track goes 100 miles further nw. That 7* is now 19*. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 We are well past peak now here in Metuchen with the foliage. The past week of cool temps with numerous nights of frost made up for the warm October. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Foliage is all over the place here. London Planes are balding while some oaks, ginkgos, etc. range from fully green to peak. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dark Star Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 4 hours ago, Allsnow said: We are well past peak now here in Metuchen with the foliage. The past week of cool temps with numerous nights of frost made up for the warm October. Almost impossible to say in Garwood, central Union County. The color last week was bland, and now, with half the leaves down, the color has turned much more vibrant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 High of 60, temps began dropping after FROPA this afternoon. Currently 40 here under a clear sky. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 This La Niña is about to strengthen big time @donsutherland1 @bluewave: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 43 minutes ago, snowman19 said: This La Niña is about to strengthen big time @donsutherland1 @bluewave: Pv is rather weak and looks to stay like that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 DT is calling for a big winter in the east 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Winter forecasts from many people have a wintry December . After that is when things are unclear. DT states that February is unclear. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
etudiant Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Sad to say, no confidence at all in any of these 'forecasts'. Here in sunny Manhattan, the forecast changed in minutes from weekly nighttime lows in the high 40s to the mid 30s . Clearly there remains great uncertainty. Imho, forecasts will not improve until forecasters are compelled to post their prior forecasts as well. Right now, the past is completely opaque, no weather channel afaik allows one to go back a day to see what actually happened. This unwillingness to honestly face up to what worked and what did not is probably a result of TV/net channel pressures, the effect remains the same. Those unable to learn from the past simply make the same mistakes again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 If the Nina strengthens in the east vs central Pacific it isn’t so bad. Central based Ninas are worse than east based. The PDO is horrible though, no sugar coating that. We need the help from the Atlantic for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 I thought last winter would be a disaster and it ended over 40” for most of us so when it comes to seasonal forecasting I generally just shrug at this point. Odds I would have to say do favor a lousy winter vs good. But hopefully we can be pleasantly surprised. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Mild and tranquil conditions came to a crashing end as violent thunderstorms with high winds, hail, and heavy downpours moved rapidly across the region. Tornadoes inflicted damage in parts of Long Island. In the wake of the responsible frontal passage, temperatures plummeted into the lower and middle 40s. Tomorrow will be an unseasonably cool day. Much of the region will see temperatures rise no higher than the middle and upper 40s. The cool weather will likely continue until midweek. Overall, there remains uncertainty about the temperature anomaly for the second half of November. With the MJO oscillating between Phases 3 and 4 over the past week, there is little signal for a change from the current back-and-forth pattern. The CFSv2 actually shows a strong warmup during and beyond week 1, but it is currently a warm outlier. However, the risk of that scenario cannot be written off altogether. Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 13 4 pm is 16.11". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist into at least late winter. The SOI was +13.55 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.195 today. On November 11 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.132 (RMM). The November 10-adjusted amplitude was 1.071 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.7° (0.3° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Pv is rather weak and looks to stay like that The SPV is not weak: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 3 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The SPV is not weak: Read what was posted in the New England thread. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 23 minutes ago, snowman19 said: The SPV is not weak: It’s not per say but it’s being pressed on a bit by wave 2 action but as long it doesn’t couple with the TPV it’s fine for now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 38 here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 The December pattern will probably begin to set up during the last week of November. We need a strong cutter or hugger to pump the -NAO into December like last year. All our La Ninas that have near to above normal snows have a front loaded part when we put down snow at some point in December. This was true during our last La Niña Decembers in 2016 and 2017. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 48degs.(42/53), or +1. Month to date is 50.9[+0.2]. Should be about 49.8[+0.5] by the 22nd. Reached 61 briefly yesterday. Today: 46-50, wind w., m. sunny then clouds move in. 42 tomorrow AM. Our last 60 on the 18th.? All 5-Day periods centered on the 21st. to the 30th. look BN. 40*(74%RH) here at 6am. 42* at 9pm. 44* at 10am. 46* at 11pm. 47* at Noon. Reached 48* at 3pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 35 here this AM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 31 here everything is frozen. Water on top of cars etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Thanksgiving week continues to look very chilly 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 14, 2021 Author Share Posted November 14, 2021 NO thread, as yet, on inside runner (e Great Lakes) strong wind event around Nov 22-23. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 13 hours ago, MJO812 said: Winter forecasts from many people have a wintry December . After that is when things are unclear. DT states that February is unclear. The pattern has become clear… Transient cold shots that last 3 to 4 days; 2 to 3 days well above normal. A lot depends on timing I’m not sure what constitutes a “big” winter: 1. snow 2. cold 3. both If I was a betting man, I would go with 1 not 3… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 34F at 8 am. I really thought we were going below freezing when I saw 38° at 8 PM but I guess not I don’t see any forecast that has central park getting below freezing anytime soon Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 12 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: The pattern has become clear… Transient cold shots that last 3 to 4 days; 2 to 3 days well above normal. A lot depends on timing I’m not sure what constitutes a “big” winter: 1. snow 2. cold 3. both If I was a betting man, I would go with 1 not 3… What has been clear ? It's only mid November. Step down continues with a chilly Thanksgiving . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 8 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: 34F at 8 am. I really thought we were going below freezing when I saw 38° at 8 PM but I guess not I don’t see any forecast that has central park getting below freezing anytime soon Thanksgiving week most likely It's amazing how areas around the area have gotten to freezing many times and Central Park can't. Have to get rid of the asphalt lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Thu 11/18 looks like the last show at 70 (+) in EWR/ warmer spots. The record of 73 (1963) at EWR looks safe and it'll be a close call with the strong sw flow ahead of the next sharp cooldown by 11/19. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be variably cloudy and unseasonably cool. High temperatures will likely reach the middle and upper 40s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 46° Newark: 50° Philadelphia: 48° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 54.5°; 15-Year: 54.6° Newark: 30-Year: 55.5°; 15-Year: 55.7° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.4°; 15-Year: 56.4° Unseasonably cool weather will continue until midweek. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 14, 2021 Share Posted November 14, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Thanksgiving week most likely It's amazing how areas around the area have gotten to freezing many times and Central Park can't. Have to get rid of the asphalt lol Its true. Good indication of how much we have destroyed earth with development 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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