bluewave Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 The Southeast is winning the November cold departure battle so far. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 beautiful outside, no wind, sunny, 62 degrees 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: The Southeast is winning the November cold departure battle so far. Eps has a nice cold shot on turkey week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 51 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Eps has a nice cold shot on turkey week It looks like a battle between the warmer Alaska +EPO trough and cooler ridge near the US West Coast. So we get a series of Pacific storms with warm ups ahead of them and cool downs behind. The monthly temperature departure may not be decided until the end of the month. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 14 minutes ago, bluewave said: It looks like a battle between the warmer Alaska +EPO trough and cooler ridge near the US West Coast. So we get a series of Pacific storms with warm ups ahead of them and cool downs behind. So the monthly temperature may not be decided until the end of the minth. The one constant, consistent theme on all models is the solid +EPO. You aren’t sustaining cold even with a -WPO in that situation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 An advancing cold front brought some periods of rain and gusty winds to the region. During the afternoon, sunshine returned from west to east. Rainfall totals were generally lighter than 0.50". New York City's year-to-date rainfall increased to 57.71", which ranks 2021 as the 14th wettest year on record. There is an implied 95% probability (1971-2020 base) that New York City will reach 60" or more precipitation for only the 9th time on record. There is an implied 41% probability that New York City could reach 65" or more precipitation for the year. The last time New York City recorded 60" or more annual precipitation was 2018 when 65.55" of precipitation was measured. In the wake of the cold front's passage, it will turn noticeably cooler for the weekend and into next week. Tomorrow could see an afternoon shower or thundershower as lapse rates increase and very cool air moves aloft. Sunday will be even cooler with the temperature staying below 50° in many parts of the region. Overall, there remains considerable uncertainty about the temperature anomaly for the second half of November. With the MJO oscillating between Phases 3 and 4 over the past week, there is little signal for a change from the current back-and-forth pattern. The CFSv2 actually shows a strong warmup during and beyond week 1, but it is currently a warm outlier. However, the risk of that scenario cannot be written off altogether. Fall 2021 is well on course to being wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 12 4 pm is 15.78". Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19. The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter. The SOI was +14.82 today. The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was -0.272 today. On November 10 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.070 (RMM). The November 9-adjusted amplitude was 0.892 (RMM). Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.7° (0.3° below normal). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: The Southeast is winning the November cold departure battle so far. when was the last time it snowed in Jacksonville lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cfa Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 My low this morning was 60. High of 66, currently 56. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: The Southeast is winning the November cold departure battle so far. I can't believe the +8 in the Upper Midwest, they might have a very mild Winter.(MN, SD, ND, eastern MT) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: It looks like a battle between the warmer Alaska +EPO trough and cooler ridge near the US West Coast. So we get a series of Pacific storms with warm ups ahead of them and cool downs behind. The monthly temperature departure may not be decided until the end of the month. It does seem like we are going +EPO, with no real chance of -EPO this Winter. I bet it evolves into more -PNA, but that evolution could be interesting, especially with strong -NAO signal. The Pacific might actually just cancel out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 43 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: when was the last time it snowed in Jacksonville lol I was on Daytona 99-03. There was a snow event one of those winters. Campus went wild between classes. First time many years that it happened 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, jfklganyc said: I was on Daytona 99-03. There was a snow event one of those winters. Campus went wild between classes. First time many years that it happened wow it would be amazing if they ever got accumulating snow from a coastal storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 36 minutes ago, LibertyBell said: wow it would be amazing if they ever got accumulating snow from a coastal storm https://www.weather.gov/hun/hunsur_1993_03_12-14 Could have been bigger believe it or not if it bombed off the East Coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Flew Jacksonville to NYC. Same temperature in both places this evening. Interesting given conversation above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 6 hours ago, LibertyBell said: when was the last time it snowed in Jacksonville lol January 2014 or 2015 they reported 10SM -SN for like an hour 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 5 hours ago, jfklganyc said: Flew Jacksonville to NYC. Same temperature in both places this evening. Interesting given conversation above What airline do you fly for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 14 hours ago, snowman19 said: The one constant, consistent theme on all models is the solid +EPO. You aren’t sustaining cold even with a -WPO in that situation Yeah, that’s why we see the temperature back and forth continuing. The models have been too weak day 10 with the Pacific Jet. Notice how the day 5 has more of an Alaska +EPO trough than the day 10 was forecasting. New 120 Old 240 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CIK62 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 The next 8 days are averaging 48degs.(42/54), or +1. Reached 66* here yesterday. Today: 56-59, winds e. to s. and gusty in PM., chance of rain then too. 40* by tomorrow AM. 54*(75%RH) here at 6am. 56* at 7am. 58* by 8am. 59* at 9am. 60* at 9:30am. 61* briefly Noon. TS/HAIL at 2pm-2:30pm 60 down to 56. 50* by 3pm, gusty. 46* at 4pm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Looks like the GFS is off its rocker again….can’t really say I’m surprised. The upgrade has done nothing apparently. It’s proving the be the most flip-flopping, erratic model out there as evidenced by this….dreadful: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wdrag Posted November 13, 2021 Author Share Posted November 13, 2021 No thread for Thanksgiving week (monday-Wednesday before)... too much variability but a storm is likely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Morning thoughts… Today will be partly sunny, breezy, and cooler. A heavier shower or thundershower is likely. A few locations could even see some pea-sized hail. High temperatures will likely reach the upper 50s and lower 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include: New York City (Central Park): 60° Newark: 64° Philadelphia: 60° Normals: New York City: 30-Year: 54.9°; 15-Year: 54.9° Newark: 30-Year: 55.8°; 15-Year: 56.0° Philadelphia: 30-Year: 56.8°; 15-Year: 56.8° Tomorrow and early next week will feature unseasonably cool weather. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongBeachSurfFreak Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 13 hours ago, LibertyBell said: wow it would be amazing if they ever got accumulating snow from a coastal storm That’s exactly what happened during the February 1899 beast. Look into that storm if your interested in all kinds of crazy snow in the south. It just missed us up here but gave 30”+ to cape may. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 A storm during Thanksgiving week looks more and more likely but right now it looks like rain for the coast and snow well inland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: A storm during Thanksgiving week looks more and more likely but right now it looks like rain for the coast and snow well inland. We could use a powerful storm like we got at the end of November last year. That system created a big wave breaking event over the North Atlantic. It pumped the -NAO ridge into December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Great news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Great news This has been a given for months, just for perspective, 10-11 was westerly QBO and 11-12 was easterly QBO. Easterly QBO doesn’t automatically mean super cold and snowy winter, in fact, with the research HM did, he showed that easterly QBO along with La Niña results in a flat Aleutian ridge, the westerly QBO La Niña combo was found to result in a poleward Aleutian ridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 2 hours ago, bluewave said: Yeah, that’s why we see the temperature back and forth continuing. The models have been too weak day 10 with the Pacific Jet. Notice how the day 5 has more of an Alaska +EPO trough than the day 10 was forecasting. New 120 Old 240 Besides the +EPO issue, we now have consensus on a strong SPV for the foreseeable future and the atmospheric forcing for a displacement event is completely absent. Also, given the coupled La Niña and severely negative PDO and negative PMM, I seriously doubt the +PNA being shown for Thanksgiving week will have any staying power. All this may prove to be very problematic for those predicting a cold December…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Besides the +EPO issue, we now have consensus on a strong SPV for the foreseeable future and the atmospheric forcing for a displacement event is completely absent. Also, given the coupled La Niña and severely negative PDO and negative PMM, I seriously doubt the +PNA being shown for Thanksgiving week will have any staying power. All this may prove to be very problematic for those predicting a cold December…. We may continue to get -NAO -AO intervals as long as the troposphere remains uncoupled from the SPV. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 13 minutes ago, bluewave said: We will continue to get -NAO -AO intervals as long as the troposphere remains uncoupled from the SPV. Yep, will be interested to see why things look like at the end of December. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 15 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Yep, will be interested to see why things look like at the end of December. Hopefully, the JMA is correct about us getting -NAO -AO intervals this winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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