White Gorilla Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 1 hour ago, jfklganyc said: Plenty of seasonal temps (which is cold) forecasted. I am good with seasonal temps. Save money on heating. Let the snow come in Dec, hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 And this was its prediction last year for December January February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 7 hours ago, Rtd208 said: DT (WxRisk) says if your looking for cold air in the second half of November keep looking. Nothing overly cold other then maybe seasonal for the next 2-3 weeks. We'll see. He changed his tune very fast. He was forecasting a cold 2nd half of November into December. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rclab Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: He changed his tune very fast. He was forecasting a cold 2nd half of November into December. Good morning Anthony. Looks like DT is now qualified to enter the political arena and run for office. As always ….. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LibertyBell Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: A -1 to +1 first 10 days of November feels much colder due to the record warmth in September and October. EWR….+0.6 NYC…..-1.1 LGA….+0.8 JFK….+0.3 ISP…..-0.6 BDR….-0.6 HPN….-1.2 it doesn't feel that cold this week thanks to the sun Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: He changed his tune very fast. He was forecasting a cold 2nd half of November into December. he usually goes with whatever the euro has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psv88 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 32 this am. Upton has been horrendous with overnight lows Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 The NAM has 50 mph gust potential near the coast with the heavy convection tomorrow. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 3 hours ago, thunderbolt said: If you like winter, pray that it’s totally wrong. It’s showing raging ++NAO/++AO. If that happens, you can stick a fork in this winter 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 4 hours ago, bluewave said: This continues to be a very fast Pacific flow pattern. So we get a back and forth between warm ups and cool downs. But there is a big disagreement between the current day 10 forecasts. The colder EPS is on its own against the warmer GEFS and GEPS. If the EPS is too cool, then November could finish with a small warm departure. In a variable temperature pattern, the last week of the month usually decides the departures. This is really troubling. Looks like the SPV stays very strong right through the end of this month, going into the beginning of December: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormchaserChuck! Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 3 hours ago, bluewave said: A -1 to +1 first 10 days of November feels much colder due to the record warmth in September and October. EWR….+0.6 NYC…..-1.1 LGA….+0.8 JFK….+0.3 ISP…..-0.6 BDR….-0.6 HPN….-1.2 Actually, it's felt like a very mild November down here, 70s the last two days. All the trees are still green on Nov 11th.. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 33 minutes ago, snowman19 said: If you like winter, pray that it’s totally wrong. It’s showing raging ++NAO/++AO. If that happens, you can stick a fork in this winter It's only November for crying out loud. Long range forecasting is a joke just like we saw in the past 2 winters. Even if they showed snow it would still be a joke. I appreciate all the long range forecasting but it's not easy to depict it accurately. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: It's only November for crying out loud. Long range forecasting is a joke just like we saw in the past 2 winters. Even if they showed snow it would still be a joke. I appreciate all the long range forecasting but it's not easy to depict it accurately. I never once said I believe it, or I’m forecasting it or I think that’s what’s going to happen. I simply commented on what the model is showing, nothing more, nothing less 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 There are many red flags for winter this year, cold pool south of Alaska just one of many Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ForestHillWx Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 1 hour ago, StormchaserChuck! said: Actually, it's felt like a very mild November down here, 70s the last two days. All the trees are still green on Nov 11th.. Where do you live? I expect any leaves remaining on the trees to be stripped bare tomorrow. We are past peak out this way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: I never once said I believe it, or I’m forecasting it or I think that’s what’s going to happen. I simply commented on what the model is showing, nothing more, nothing less It wasn't only towards you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: It's only November for crying out loud. Long range forecasting is a joke just like we saw in the past 2 winters. Even if they showed snow it would still be a joke. I appreciate all the long range forecasting but it's not easy to depict it accurately. ...well it is approaching mid november and there is not a single sign of a dramatic pattern change that is going to be required. There has been very few cold fronts all fall. Near record to record warm temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 4 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: ...well it is approaching mid november and there is not a single sign of a dramatic pattern change that is going to be required. There has been very few cold fronts all fall. Near record to record warm temps. Good let the cold weather wait until the end of the month and December. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 10 minutes ago, ForestHillWx said: Where do you live? I expect any leaves remaining on the trees to be stripped bare tomorrow. We are past peak out this way. That certainly will not be taking place in SNE. I have never seen so many trees with leaves on them. In this area the leaf drop is at least 3 weeks late. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 I don't think anyone forecasted a warm December. All the forecasts I have seen are for a cold and snowy December and half of January and a warm 2nd half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: Good let the cold weather wait until the end of the month and December. You are setting yourself up for disappointment... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: I don't think anyone forecasted a warm December. All the forecasts I have seen are for a cold and snowy December and half of January and a warm 2nd half. The majority of people that produce a winter forecast are biased towards cold/snow so their bias hampers them to look at things without the bias impacting their forecast(s)...many also downplay the impact of climate change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: The majority of people that produce a winter forecast are biased towards cold/snow so their bias hampers them to look at things without the bias impacting their forecast(s)...many also downplay the impact of climate change. So earthlight is bias ? DT and Steve D also forecasted the same thing along with JB and others on this forum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 We go through this every single year. People panic it is too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 Just now, MJO812 said: We go through this every single year. People panic it is too warm. It isn't panic at all....just take a look at what the overall pattern has been producing for months...once again there isn't a single sign of a dramatic pattern change....and every year we also go through people insisting it is going to be a cold/snowy winter... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: it doesn't feel that cold this week thanks to the sun Tough to compete against the record warmth last November. Newark has only reached 70° once so far this month. They tied the record with 7 days last November. Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 2021 1 20 2020 7 0 2019 0 0 2018 2 0 2017 2 0 2016 2 0 2015 5 0 2014 2 0 2013 1 0 2012 0 0 2011 3 0 2010 0 0 Time Series Summary for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ - Month of NovClick column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending. Rank Year Number of Days Max Temperature >= 70 Missing Count 2020 7 0 - 1975 7 0 1994 6 0 - 1990 6 0 - 1953 6 0 - 1931 6 0 2015 5 0 - 2001 5 0 - 1982 5 0 - 1938 5 0 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 7 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: The majority of people that produce a winter forecast are biased towards cold/snow so their bias hampers them to look at things without the bias impacting their forecast(s)...many also downplay the impact of climate change. true to some degree. How often do you see a mild/snowless winter forecasted? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: true to some degree. How often do you see a mild/snowless winter forecasted? Rarely because such forecasts do not generate much interest. And they do not generate website hits. It's no secret that winter weather in general is hyped to a very large degree. "Polar Vortex to Assault Eastern 2/3 of nation".....99 percent of people think Polar Vortex is a specialty drink made with Russian vodka... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 11, 2021 Share Posted November 11, 2021 12 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: true to some degree. How often do you see a mild/snowless winter forecasted? Noaa 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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