November 2021

[Rtd208]

Overnight low of 31 here.

Current temp 38

[SACRUS]

Roller coastember

Nice swirl off the  SC and SE coast.  Looks like the roller coaster is climbing and temps should be on the stronger plus side 11/8 - 11/12.  Then 11/13 - 11/16 cooler/ colder (11/14-15) side.  Beyond there back warmer perhaps by D9/10 (11/16 - 11/21).  Looking out towards Thanksgiving week looks like we head back colder on the long range.  Cold start will be hard to over come unless Thanksgiving cold folds.  

 

 

 

[bluewave]

26 minutes ago, LibertyBell said:

In the main la nina thread they seem to think we'll have an active back end too.  So maybe a snowy beginning and a snow end?  Quote a few la nina's have been book end winters.

 

Our last bookend La Niña was 17-18. Snowy mid-December to January 4th then early spring from mid-January through the 80° high in late February. Record snows in March to early April. 16-17 had a very even distribution of snow from December through March. It was really  mild from late December through February. We had the famous Denver style 60° the day before the February blizzard. 10-11 was our last front-loaded La Niña winter with Newark recording 60"+ from late December to late January before the snows shut off. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
2016-2017	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	T	39.3
2017-2018	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	4.6	65.9

 

Maximum 35-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Dates	Missing Days
Period of record: 1931-02-01 to 2021-11-06
1	61.6	2010-12-26 through 2011-01-29	0

[SACRUS]

EWR last shot at adding more to their 70 (+) tallies on Tuesday (11/9) and Wed (11/10).  Records highs safe that period from the upper 70s a year ago (2020). 

[bluewave]

When you see such a big North Pacific pattern change like this, expect the model storm details beyond 5 days to vary more than usual from run to run. 
 

 

 

[EastonSN+]

39 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Our last bookend La Niña was 17-18. Snowy mid-December to January 4th then early spring from mid-January through the 80° high in late February. Record snows in March to early April. 16-17 had a very even distribution of snow from December through March. It was really  mild from late December through February. We had the famous Denver style 60° the day before the February blizzard. 10-11 was our last front-loaded La Niña winter with Newark recording 60"+ from late December to late January before the snows shut off. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
2016-2017	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	T	39.3
2017-2018	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	4.6	65.9

 

Maximum 35-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Dates	Missing Days
Period of record: 1931-02-01 to 2021-11-06
1	61.6	2010-12-26 through 2011-01-29	0

Peaked my interest with 17/18.

Probably my 4th favorite winter of all time.

56 inches total snowfall with 28 falling from March onwards.

Early season snowfall.

Great warmth for hearting savings and outdoor activities.

[JerseyWx]

51 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

Peaked my interest with 17/18.

Probably my 4th favorite winter of all time.

56 inches total snowfall with 28 falling from March onwards.

Early season snowfall.

Great warmth for hearting savings and outdoor activities.

Yeah that was definitely a good season for backend snow.  Spring was definitely welcomed after that.

[dWave]

45 after a low of 40. Finally can see some significant foliage in the 5 boros, but still below 50% overall. Look like real explosion of color as close as north half of Yonkers or so.

[bluewave]

1 hour ago, EastonSN+ said:

Peaked my interest with 17/18.

Probably my 4th favorite winter of all time.

56 inches total snowfall with 28 falling from March onwards.

Early season snowfall.

Great warmth for hearting savings and outdoor activities.

Even in our new snowier climate since 02-03,  17-18 stands out in Suffolk. 
 

Data for October 1, 2020 through April 30, 2021
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
NESCONSET 1.4 SSW	CoCoRaHS	46.1
MOUNT SINAI	COOP	41.3

 

Data for October 1, 2017 through April 30, 2018
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Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
BRIGHTWATERS 0.7 NNW	CoCoRaHS	72.0
NESCONSET 1.4 SSW	CoCoRaHS	71.8

 

Data for October 1, 2016 through April 30, 2017
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	42.7
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	42.1
NESCONSET 1.4 SSW	CoCoRaHS	41.2

 

Data for October 1, 2015 through April 30, 2016
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	41.4
CENTERPORT	COOP	41.0

 

Data for October 1, 2014 through April 30, 2015
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	67.9
JAMESPORT 0.6 SSW	CoCoRaHS	63.9
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	63.7
RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	63.5
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	62.2
ROCKY POINT 2.0 N	CoCoRaHS	61.6

 

Data for October 1, 2013 through April 30, 2014
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	63.7
BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	62.7
CENTERPORT	COOP	60.8

 

Data for October 1, 2012 through April 30, 2013
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
UPTON COOP - NWSFO NEW YORK	COOP	51.1
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	46.9
BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	45.1
MOUNT SINAI	COOP	44.5

 

Data for October 1, 2010 through April 30, 2011
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
CENTERPORT	COOP	64.0
MOUNT SINAI	COOP	55.9
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	55.3
BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	53.1
NORTHPORT 1.6 NNE	CoCoRaHS	52.5

 

Data for October 1, 2009 through April 30, 2010
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
BAITING HOLLOW	COOP	57.0
EAST MORICHES 0.6 WNW	CoCoRaHS	55.0
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	53.8

 

 

Data for October 1, 2008 through April 30, 2009
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Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	44.3

 

Data for October 1, 2004 through April 30, 2005
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	63.8
BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	59.3
ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP	WBAN	58.8
CENTERPORT	COOP	54.3

 

Data for October 1, 2003 through April 30, 2004
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
CENTERPORT	COOP	59.7
BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	47.9
RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	43.5

 

Data for October 1, 2002 through April 30, 2003
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Name	Station Type	Total Snowfall
BRIDGEHAMPTON	COOP	63.5
RIVERHEAD RESEARCH FARM	COOP	48.7

[donsutherland1]

A warming trend will commence tomorrow. Overall, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. Dry conditions will likely persist until late next week. Ensemble members are clustered around the November 12-14 for a possible break in the dry weather. Cooler weather could follow.

During the second half of October, the Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for that timeframe where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a four consecutive days. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November.

Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West
Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West
Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West

The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 7 4 pm is 15.29".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.6°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.1°C for the week centered around October 27. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.05°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.65°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +17.05 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.584 today.

On November 5 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.124 (RMM). The November 4-adjusted amplitude was 0.983 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 52% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.8° (0.2° below normal).

 

[LibertyBell]

12 hours ago, bluewave said:

Our last bookend La Niña was 17-18. Snowy mid-December to January 4th then early spring from mid-January through the 80° high in late February. Record snows in March to early April. 16-17 had a very even distribution of snow from December through March. It was really  mild from late December through February. We had the famous Denver style 60° the day before the February blizzard. 10-11 was our last front-loaded La Niña winter with Newark recording 60"+ from late December to late January before the snows shut off. 
 

Monthly Total Snowfall for ISLIP-LI MACARTHUR AP, NY
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Year	Dec	Jan	Feb	Mar	Apr	Season
2016-2017	3.2	14.0	14.7	7.4	T	39.3
2017-2018	6.0	22.0	1.4	31.9	4.6	65.9

 

Maximum 35-Day Total Snowfall 
for NEWARK LIBERTY INTL AP, NJ
Click column heading to sort ascending, click again to sort descending.

Rank	Value	Dates	Missing Days
Period of record: 1931-02-01 to 2021-11-06
1	61.6	2010-12-26 through 2011-01-29	0

Chris do you consider 1995-96 to be a book end winter on steroids?  It's interesting so many of these book end winters had April snowstorms..... 1955-56, 1995-96, 2017-18

 

[LoboLeader1]

45* here as 5:30 this AM, fourteen degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. 

[Tatamy]

54 minutes ago, LoboLeader1 said:

45* here as 5:30 this AM, fourteen degrees warmer than yesterday at this time. 

Low level inversion seems to be in place out here in eastern PA and NW NJ this morning.  Low elevation locations are currently in the low to mid 30s while most other places are well into the 40s.  This is resulting in 10 to 15 degree temperature differences across short distances.

[CIK62]

The next 8 days are averaging  54degs.(48/60), or +5.

Most of the rain and all snow are gone from the GFS----Smart Boy---say nothing----before consulting a real meteorologist. LOL

Today: 62-66, wind n., m. sunny.

50*(51%) here at 6am,  Sunny       52* at 7am.     56* at 9am.      60* at 11am.      61* at Noon.      65* at 2pm.      Reached 66* near 4pm.

[bluewave]

Warm up this week after a colder than average first week of November. Looks like our next  chance of significant rain and wind will be Friday. Then we start another cool down during the weekend.   Probably a leaf clean up weekend after the storm for the garden interests.

 

 

[MJO812]

5 minutes ago, bluewave said:

Warm up this week after a colder than average first week of November. Looks like our next  chance of significant rain and wind will be Friday. Then we start another cold down during the weekend.   Probably a leaf clean up weekend after the storm for the garden interests.

 

 

Good to see the pattern changing slowly. No sustainable cold until the PNA pops positive.

[bluewave]

10 minutes ago, MJO812 said:

Good to see the pattern changing slowly. No sustainable cold until the PNA pops positive.

It looks like a back and forth type pattern. The MJO 4-6 is pumping the -EPO/+PNA. But the very strong La Niña Jet acts to flatten it out. So we get a progression of warm ups and cool downs. The monthly departure may not be determined until the last week of November. Maybe the new weeklies later will provide some clues.

[donsutherland1]

Morning thoughts…

Today will be mostly sunny and warm. High temperatures will likely reach the lower and middle 60s in most of the region. Likely high temperatures around the region include:

New York City (Central Park): 63°

Newark: 67°

Philadelphia: 66°

Normals:

New York City: 30-Year: 56.6°; 15-Year: 56.6°

Newark: 30-Year: 57.7°; 15-Year: 57.9°

Philadelphia: 30-Year: 58.7°; 15-Year: 58.6°

Temperatures will average above to much above normal through much of the week.

[MJO812]

1 hour ago, bluewave said:

It looks like a back and forth type pattern. The MJO 4-6 is pumping the -EPO/+PNA. But the very strong La Niña Jet acts to flatten it out. So we get a progression of warm ups and cool downs. The monthly departure may not be determined until the last week of November. Maybe the new weeklies later will provide some clues.

Gefs has been steadfast of bringing in colder air compared to the op.

[Stormlover74]

Balmy weather is back. 63

[psv88]

11 minutes ago, Stormlover74 said:

Balmy weather is back. 63

Beautiful day 

[winterwx21]

67 degrees here right now, and not a cloud in the sky. Spectacular weather.

[qg_omega]

Backyard is infested with Asian beetles

[LoboLeader1]

64 here, gorgeous day to be outdoors.

[Brian5671]

1 hour ago, qg_omega said:

Backyard is infested with Asian beetles

they came out of the woodwork here too-always when we get a November warm spell

[bluewave]

Not much change in the extended EPS. MJO 4-6 ridging over the NE PAC with the PAC Jet sending shortwaves through from time to time. Warmer this week with a cool down from the weekend into next week. Last week of November has a colder than average area just to our west. But we’ll see what that looks like the closer we get since week 3 and beyond has lower skill. 

Nov 8-15

Nov 15-22

 

Nov 22-29

 

 

[uncle W]

66/39 today...six straight days with a min in the 30's...

[MJO812]

La nina weakening

[donsutherland1]

In spirit of the clocks' being turned back one hour on Sunday, the seasonal clock seemed to have been turned back today. Under bright sunshine, the temperature rose into the 60s and even 70s in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. High temperatures included:

Baltimore: 72°
Boston: 60°
Bridgeport: 67°
Harrisburg: 67°
Hartford: 64°
Islip: 65°
New York City: 63°
Newark: 68°
Philadelphia: 67°
Portland, ME: 61°
Providence: 64°
Washington, DC: 70°

Unseasonable warmth will persist through Friday. Nevertheless, the first 10 days of November will average solidly cooler than normal in the Middle Atlantic and southern New England regions. A cold front will bring some rain later Friday perhaps into Saturday. Afterward, it will turn noticeably cooler.

During the second half of October, the Atlantic teleconnections went through an unusual combination for that timeframe where the AO was +0.750 or above and the NAO was -0.750 or below for a four consecutive days. There were three clusters of cases with one or more such days during the second half of October (1950-2020), two of which favored warmth in the East in November.

Cluster 1 (1961, 1973, 1975): Warm East, Cool West
Cluster 2 (1970, 2006): Warm Northeast/Cool Southeast, Warm West
Cluster 3 (2008): Cool East, Warm West

The evolution of the PNA could be crucial. For both Cluster 1 and 2, the PNA averaged negative during November. For Cluster 3, the PNA averaged above +1.000.

Fall 2021 will likely be wetter to much wetter than normal in the northern Middle Atlantic region. Since 1869, there have been 9 August cases where New York City picked up 20.00" or more rainfall during the summer. Two thirds of those cases (and 4/5 of those with summer mean temperatures of 73.0° or above) had 17.00" or more fall precipitation in New York City. 2011 is probably the closest match in terms of precipitation and a nearly identical summer mean temperature. Mean fall precipitation for those 9 cases was 14.86". The median was 17.35". The 1991-2020 normal value is 12.27". Fall rainfall through November 7 4 pm is 15.29".

Following very wet July-September periods, winter (December-February) precipitation has typically been near or below normal. The most recent exception was winter 2018-19.

The ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly was -0.8°C and the Region 3.4 anomaly was -1.0°C for the week centered around November 3. For the past six weeks, the ENSO Region 1+2 anomaly has averaged -0.27°C and the ENSO Region 3.4 anomaly has averaged -0.78°C. La Niña conditions will likely persist through at least mid-winter.

The SOI was +20.68 today.

The preliminary Arctic Oscillation (AO) figure was +1.169 today.

On November 6 the MJO was in Phase 4 at an amplitude of 1.184 (RMM). The November 5-adjusted amplitude was 1.121 (RMM).

Based on sensitivity analysis applied to the latest guidance, there is an implied 56% probability that New York City will have a cooler than normal November (1991-2020 normal). November will likely finish with a mean temperature near 47.7° (0.3° below normal).

 

[EpicJolee]

What was the last freezing date of NYC ever recorded?