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  On 11/23/2021 at 2:21 PM, bluewave said:

Big model war on the 0z guidance for early December. The EPS and GEPS are colder with the Aleutians ridge building toward the Arctic. The GEFS is flatter and warmer with a  faster Pacific Jet. That poleward Aleutians ridge matches December La Niña climatology more closely since 2000.

60A1BAC1-7A09-4FF0-8A01-574DCD99F2E6.png.0eb3983e543b328c01daa6c2fd9811f2.png

 

 

 

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AA6C7664-DD20-46FF-B8C9-0113BA59E6CF.thumb.png.0e226ae4d81682f7fee7d16afb250933.png

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I know I mentioned before, but personally rooting for a warm December in hopes that it means the La Nina is not affecting us in the normal way (decoupled).

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  On 11/23/2021 at 3:53 PM, EastonSN+ said:

I know I mentioned before, but personally rooting for a warm December in hopes that it means the La Nina is not affecting us in the normal way (decoupled).

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This year the La Niña is having a strong influence on the atmosphere. Last winter was much more El Niño-like. Maybe next winter we can finally get a fully coupled El Niño with a raging STJ pattern. 

https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/did-northern-hemisphere-get-memo-years-la-niña

 

 

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  On 11/23/2021 at 3:28 PM, snowman19 said:

Stop your trolling. I don’t trust anything the EPS shows anymore. I don’t care if it shows a freaking torch, I don’t believe it. It flips around like a fish out of water

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He isn't trolling

You shouldn't trust anything the models show in the long range . You really think a model is going to be right 300 hours out ?

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  On 11/23/2021 at 3:28 PM, snowman19 said:

Stop your trolling. I don’t trust anything the EPS shows anymore. I don’t care if it shows a freaking torch, I don’t believe it. It flips around like a fish out of water

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The EPS actually beat the GFS for the current period we are in and headed into...the GFS 12 or so days ago was trying to flip the pattern more to a classic Nina and failed.

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  On 11/23/2021 at 5:44 PM, SnoSki14 said:

Definitely adjusting towards a more Nina December but still has a long way to go. 

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We need few more corrections stronger with the Aleutians ridge to get the gradient south of us. But today is an improvement over yesterday on the GEFS. Our better La Niña winters for snowfall usually have more of a poleward extension of the Aleutians ridge. 
 

New run

F7CE3A38-4429-4C01-A61C-330905A7EBB8.thumb.png.789491af50783565f72cc678eb3903c1.png

Old run

B51C1DC9-D7EE-419E-8A06-126E7C4CEDA2.thumb.png.0f20c117bb3047d9e4bed5d3cab99e94.png

 

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  On 11/23/2021 at 8:21 PM, snowman19 said:

Another -EPO fantasy/phantom ridge in the long range that’s going to disappear lol And people are falling for it again hook, line and sinker. Hit the repeat button

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A -EPO will be tough to get but you don't need arctic cold for snowfall opportunities. 

Despite a very positive EPO November will still be BN. 

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