EastonSN+ Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 hour ago, bluewave said: Big model war on the 0z guidance for early December. The EPS and GEPS are colder with the Aleutians ridge building toward the Arctic. The GEFS is flatter and warmer with a faster Pacific Jet. That poleward Aleutians ridge matches December La Niña climatology more closely since 2000. I know I mentioned before, but personally rooting for a warm December in hopes that it means the La Nina is not affecting us in the normal way (decoupled). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 10 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: I know I mentioned before, but personally rooting for a warm December in hopes that it means the La Nina is not affecting us in the normal way (decoupled). This year the La Niña is having a strong influence on the atmosphere. Last winter was much more El Niño-like. Maybe next winter we can finally get a fully coupled El Niño with a raging STJ pattern. https://www.climate.gov/news-features/blogs/enso/did-northern-hemisphere-get-memo-years-la-niña 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 47 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Stop your trolling. I don’t trust anything the EPS shows anymore. I don’t care if it shows a freaking torch, I don’t believe it. It flips around like a fish out of water He isn't trolling You shouldn't trust anything the models show in the long range . You really think a model is going to be right 300 hours out ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 hour ago, snowman19 said: Stop your trolling. I don’t trust anything the EPS shows anymore. I don’t care if it shows a freaking torch, I don’t believe it. It flips around like a fish out of water The EPS actually beat the GFS for the current period we are in and headed into...the GFS 12 or so days ago was trying to flip the pattern more to a classic Nina and failed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 It’s good that the strong winds wait until a day after Thanksgiving. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Nice negative epo signature on the gfs 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 17 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Nice negative epo signature on the gfs Gefs is also showing a colder 1st week of December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Gefs is also showing a colder 1st week of December Definitely adjusting towards a more Nina December but still has a long way to go. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 5 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Definitely adjusting towards a more Nina December but still has a long way to go. Agree Have to see if the pac cooperates 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the_other_guy Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 2 hours ago, LibertyBell said: hit 32 though like JFK did but here's a delicate question, can it be considered a freezing day if the low is above 32.0? Because 0 C (actual freezing) is 32.0 F, not 32.2 or 32.4 or anything in between? I think thats “first freeze” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 28 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: Definitely adjusting towards a more Nina December but still has a long way to go. We need few more corrections stronger with the Aleutians ridge to get the gradient south of us. But today is an improvement over yesterday on the GEFS. Our better La Niña winters for snowfall usually have more of a poleward extension of the Aleutians ridge. New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Light snow on the Euro for Sunday. Backside energy was a tad late for a bigger storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Total snowfall on the Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Eps has some members near our area for Sunday 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Anyone seeing anything? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Total snowfall on the Euro savor that map before it's gone 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 12 minutes ago, forkyfork said: savor that map before it's gone Everyone is talking about it even SNE Hopping on ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Nice negative epo showing up on the eps mid to long range. This run is alot colder than it showed 24 hours ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 4 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Everyone is talking about it even SNE Hopping on ? of course they're talking about it 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 17 minutes ago, forkyfork said: of course they're talking about it How about the mid Atlantic? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Another -EPO fantasy/phantom ridge in the long range that’s going to disappear lol And people are falling for it again hook, line and sinker. Hit the repeat button 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 16 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Another -EPO fantasy/phantom ridge in the long range that’s going to disappear lol And people are falling for it again hook, line and sinker. Hit the repeat button The day 10 EPS looks more like a -WPO based near the Aleutians than a -EPO. New run Old run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 29 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Another -EPO fantasy/phantom ridge in the long range that’s going to disappear lol And people are falling for it again hook, line and sinker. Hit the repeat button You are ridiculous It has support from other models 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lee59 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Would not be surprised to see some teens tonight in the coldest locations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 31 minutes ago, snowman19 said: Another -EPO fantasy/phantom ridge in the long range that’s going to disappear lol And people are falling for it again hook, line and sinker. Hit the repeat button A -EPO will be tough to get but you don't need arctic cold for snowfall opportunities. Despite a very positive EPO November will still be BN. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 2 minutes ago, lee59 said: Would not be surprised to see some teens tonight in the coldest locations. yeah I'm dropping quickly here down ot 37 already Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LoboLeader1 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 36 here as of 4PM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 8 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said: A -EPO will be tough to get but you don't need arctic cold for snowfall opportunities. Despite a very positive EPO November will still be BN. Arctic cold usually means suppression depression. I’ll take slightly below normal 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dmillz25 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 37 here as well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted November 23, 2021 Share Posted November 23, 2021 Icon on board for Sunday 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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